Logique
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Ag finished +3.0% at 24.75 overnight, Au up 1% too.Agree, love silver.
Gold Price - Where is it heading?
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Gold will be very news driven this week. The link gives a round up of opinions, with a dash of reasoning:
http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNews20100917DeC_metals.html
Patricia Mohr picks Pd as 2011's best commodity. Anyone have a Pd ASX/TSX pick (besides MMW:ASX/TSX)?
SX
http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNews20100917DeC_metals.html
Patricia Mohr picks Pd as 2011's best commodity. Anyone have a Pd ASX/TSX pick (besides MMW:ASX/TSX)?
SX
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Finally back from the sin bin. Just thought I'd say hi again to all and sundry.
Good to see explod hanging in there and sharing the wisdom around.
Another round of QE coming up this week.
Still holding the good ol' Au.
Here's a great article on the current status of play in the States. Hopefully
another round of QE won't create further mistrust in the market. But it's probably likely that US citizens will be buying more physical over the next few years.
http://www.theonion.com/articles/report-majority-of-government-doesnt-trust-citizen,17459/
Cheers fellas
Good to see explod hanging in there and sharing the wisdom around.
Another round of QE coming up this week.
Still holding the good ol' Au.
Here's a great article on the current status of play in the States. Hopefully
another round of QE won't create further mistrust in the market. But it's probably likely that US citizens will be buying more physical over the next few years.
http://www.theonion.com/articles/report-majority-of-government-doesnt-trust-citizen,17459/
Cheers fellas
explod
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Great to have you released Gumby, has been a tough job keeping the gold price up since you left.
Well its all politics and the Fed Heads this wek, so hold your breath wait and see with gold.
Late Tuesday of next week before we see any clear direction. The QE jaw boning will keep it depressed as usual for a few days but confident the rise will then resume.
Well its all politics and the Fed Heads this wek, so hold your breath wait and see with gold.
Late Tuesday of next week before we see any clear direction. The QE jaw boning will keep it depressed as usual for a few days but confident the rise will then resume.
nukz
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I think gold/silver markets have already taken into account QE2 in their price. I would think possibly we could have a short term drop in gold/silver when it is announced.
That being said if it's announced the fed will really put the printer in overdrive and print a $ trillion sum then i would expect a fair rise in gold/silver.
Right now i think the market is focused on approximatly 500 billion so anything less may dissapoint the market.
That being said if it's announced the fed will really put the printer in overdrive and print a $ trillion sum then i would expect a fair rise in gold/silver.
Right now i think the market is focused on approximatly 500 billion so anything less may dissapoint the market.
explod
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I think you are pretty right there nukz though the turnaround has been very fast indeed. During the US session over night gold went from a US$1365 high to 1325 in a matter of little more than six hours. That was the drop you anticipated, US$40 of it, but the rebound to 1355 (up $30) has taken place in ten hours. Now that is volatility.
Some of the points I raised earlier in the day in the silver thread have been published since by Dan Norcini and is well worth a read for the detail on what is going on with the US dollar (as we have allways said, this is about currencies) and you can find it via JSMinset on the following link:
http://jsmineset.com/
Some of the points I raised earlier in the day in the silver thread have been published since by Dan Norcini and is well worth a read for the detail on what is going on with the US dollar (as we have allways said, this is about currencies) and you can find it via JSMinset on the following link:
http://jsmineset.com/
nukz
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Saw this on another forum before...
GoldMoney testing all its gold bars for counterfeiting -
As of October 2010 we have begun using ultrasound scanning technology to verify that each of the gold bars we store for you is free of foreign materials and defects. Any bar that fails the ultrasound test is melted down, assayed and then recast into a new bar. We aim to complete the scanning of all gold bars in the first quarter of 2011.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rh0Mcagio5Q
Cool video, i wouldn't mind some of those 400oz bars, wonder if this thing detects tungsten
GoldMoney testing all its gold bars for counterfeiting -
As of October 2010 we have begun using ultrasound scanning technology to verify that each of the gold bars we store for you is free of foreign materials and defects. Any bar that fails the ultrasound test is melted down, assayed and then recast into a new bar. We aim to complete the scanning of all gold bars in the first quarter of 2011.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rh0Mcagio5Q
Cool video, i wouldn't mind some of those 400oz bars, wonder if this thing detects tungsten
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Gold takes out new record tonight.
Enter the era of dollar devaluation: James Saft
http://in.reuters.com/article/idINIndia-52674220101104?pageNumber=1
(Reuters) - We've entered a new era in global financial markets: the U.S. is intentionally devaluing the dollar.
For the U.S., which has long espoused a strong dollar but in reality had a policy of benign neglect, this is the equivalent of pushing the big red eject button in the jet cockpit: something big is going to happen and we will have to see how it will work out.
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday moved to open a second round of quantitative easing, pledging to purchase a total of $600 billion of longer-dated Treasuries between now and the end of the second quarter of next year. As well, the Fed will reinvest $250-300 billion in the same period, meaning that the central bank will be buying up $110 billion a month in Treasuries and creating a like amount of new money out of the ether.
Perhaps the principal way QE will boost the economy, the Fed hopes, is by lowering effective interest rates, enticing investors to move into riskier assets, some of which may generate inflation and jobs. As well there is the wealth effect; the old canard of spending more because your retirement account and house have gone up in nominal terms.
The bald fact, though, is that by turning on the printing presses the Fed will drive down the value of the dollar absent a similar move in another currency. Much of the new investment created by QE will be made not in the U.S. but will be money borrowed in the U.S., exchanged into a foreign currency, probably an emerging markets one, and invested overseas. That will drive the dollar down, which will help to make U.S. industry more competitive.
There you have it; competitive devaluation, a beggar-thy-neighbor policy. It is not much of a lever, but it is one of the few which the Fed has left to pull.
Don't expect anyone from the Fed or the Treasury to tell you this in simple declarative sentences, but it's true nonetheless.
"Devaluation is the intention, and devaluation is what is going to happen," Avinash Persaud, Chairman of Elara Capital told the Forex Forum conference in New York on Tuesday.
We can surely expect the U.S. to deny this, as Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner did in October, but the truth will be seen in the foreign exchange markets, where the dollar has been falling and will fall further as the year winds down.
GETTING THE GENIE BACK INTO THE BOTTLE
It is most certainly in the power of the U.S. to begin a period of competitive devaluation. The U.S. dollar is a global reserve currency and the marginal cost to Bernanke of printing more is very low indeed. Less certain are the reactions of the rest of the world.
While the U.S. will surely have prepared the way for QE2 with its major trading partners (and in fact may be deliberately ticking off the Chinese) there remains a strong chance that a falling dollar sets off a range of tit-for-tat reactions. Already Korea and Brazil are moving to stem the appreciation of their own currency. Look too for the possibility of other countries joining in to QE, in part so that the Japanese yen, to name just one, does not rise too much against the dollar.
A currency war blossoming into a trade war has to be one of the outside but significant risks of 2011.
Enter the era of dollar devaluation: James Saft
http://in.reuters.com/article/idINIndia-52674220101104?pageNumber=1
(Reuters) - We've entered a new era in global financial markets: the U.S. is intentionally devaluing the dollar.
For the U.S., which has long espoused a strong dollar but in reality had a policy of benign neglect, this is the equivalent of pushing the big red eject button in the jet cockpit: something big is going to happen and we will have to see how it will work out.
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday moved to open a second round of quantitative easing, pledging to purchase a total of $600 billion of longer-dated Treasuries between now and the end of the second quarter of next year. As well, the Fed will reinvest $250-300 billion in the same period, meaning that the central bank will be buying up $110 billion a month in Treasuries and creating a like amount of new money out of the ether.
Perhaps the principal way QE will boost the economy, the Fed hopes, is by lowering effective interest rates, enticing investors to move into riskier assets, some of which may generate inflation and jobs. As well there is the wealth effect; the old canard of spending more because your retirement account and house have gone up in nominal terms.
The bald fact, though, is that by turning on the printing presses the Fed will drive down the value of the dollar absent a similar move in another currency. Much of the new investment created by QE will be made not in the U.S. but will be money borrowed in the U.S., exchanged into a foreign currency, probably an emerging markets one, and invested overseas. That will drive the dollar down, which will help to make U.S. industry more competitive.
There you have it; competitive devaluation, a beggar-thy-neighbor policy. It is not much of a lever, but it is one of the few which the Fed has left to pull.
Don't expect anyone from the Fed or the Treasury to tell you this in simple declarative sentences, but it's true nonetheless.
"Devaluation is the intention, and devaluation is what is going to happen," Avinash Persaud, Chairman of Elara Capital told the Forex Forum conference in New York on Tuesday.
We can surely expect the U.S. to deny this, as Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner did in October, but the truth will be seen in the foreign exchange markets, where the dollar has been falling and will fall further as the year winds down.
GETTING THE GENIE BACK INTO THE BOTTLE
It is most certainly in the power of the U.S. to begin a period of competitive devaluation. The U.S. dollar is a global reserve currency and the marginal cost to Bernanke of printing more is very low indeed. Less certain are the reactions of the rest of the world.
While the U.S. will surely have prepared the way for QE2 with its major trading partners (and in fact may be deliberately ticking off the Chinese) there remains a strong chance that a falling dollar sets off a range of tit-for-tat reactions. Already Korea and Brazil are moving to stem the appreciation of their own currency. Look too for the possibility of other countries joining in to QE, in part so that the Japanese yen, to name just one, does not rise too much against the dollar.
A currency war blossoming into a trade war has to be one of the outside but significant risks of 2011.
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In the meantime we're just marking time
Will be interesting to see if our market gets too excited today!
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Actually the trade wars started several months ago, if not already preceded by currency manipulation since 1971?
Always fun to watch - the aussie gold value barely changes due to exchange rate yet goldies get bid up with the rest of the market euphoria at more money printed! The fact is, gold still hasn't surpassed the inflation adjusted high of the last bull, so to me, in light of all that's happened, gold has underperformed to my expectations.
While I'd like to see this as a flight to gold, it appears to me to be multiple markets being driven by mis directed QE liquidity ie markets are exhibiting the same blinkered ignorance to the underlying economic realities while making new post GFC highs. Gold will get taken down with the rest of them soon? Then the real action will start.
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Hold Gold Buy Silver. Silver always out performs Gold. Gold will soon gain as well from here on.
This is a bull market that can last another ten years.
Of course you will see minor corrections along the way, but that's all part of the game.
You have to have the Guts to hold.
explod
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nukz
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If a return to the gold standard was ever possible, i wonder what impact that would have.
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You don't want to be holding any kind of Fiat currency when/if that happens.
EDIT: It will be like dividing your wealth by three
explod
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Yep agree with electronicmaster 100%. However do yourself a favour and google up the history of gold as money and have a good read. It may well change your whole thinking about the financial system.
Be interested on your take after a good weekend on that research.
good luck and cheers explod
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You conspiracy theorist you explod?
How dare you talk about such things you need counselling?
Without declaring myself as a complete loon-bag, I would like to differentiate myself from the current crowd. I'm not interested in credit card leverage, the latest gaming console or even the latest 60 inch plasma!
I just want a return on the hard earned and the multiplier provided by printing. Are the printers increasing the money supply Made In China?
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The spreads on 1oz (physical) bars are as high as i can remember, pamp bars are as high as $60 from spot!
That only means one thing when the spread blows out "uncertainty in the market"
Whats funny thow is the demand for bullion is still very strong despite the prices....
That only means one thing when the spread blows out "uncertainty in the market"
Whats funny thow is the demand for bullion is still very strong despite the prices....
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