Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[Mr Z]

Though I traced him down via the GATA web page he is not associated with them.

GATA LOL.... they are a bunch of nut's that just happen to be right about a number of things. They constantly shoot at their own feet! They provide me with endless fun, I actually suspect they are funded by Goldman to keep up the crazy goldbug image and scare middle class conservative money away. They do it sooooooo well and somehow **** up despite having discovered some underlying truths of the gold market.

 

[trainspotter]

Well bugger me ! ASF must really work ! Pearl shop went off on Saturday morning with three large pieces selling. Monday (today) and blow me down with a feather, 2 more pieces walk out the door ?? Nice ! Gratuity cheque is in the mail Joe Blow !

 

[Ageo]

Haha nice work TS....

Do you make your own jewellery? or get a jeweller to make the pieces up?

Also are those diamonds or C.Z's? in between?

 

[trainspotter]

Haha nice work TS....

Do you make your own jewellery? or get a jeweller to make the pieces up?

Also are those diamonds or C.Z's? in between?

YEAH ... talk about stranger than fiction? Write about how bad things are on the sales front and it lights up. I design the jewellery and I have a jeweller working full time making pieces for me. They are the real deal on the stones BTW. VVS1 Argyles is all I buy with certificates. Mate of mine worked for 16 years for Argyle as one of their graders so he knows his stuff. I just phone him with what I want and it turns up literally the next day. Pearls are from my farm. From memory they were 3rd generation seeds so quality was right up there but size was lacking. That particular piece found a new home with 9ct Omega chain for $2350.00 with Authenticity Certificates.

I have junk jewllery in the shop as well with CZ's but there is nothing like the "real" thing IMO.

 

[Ageo]

Nice pieces mate, if you have a catalogue of some sort send it as i always have customers looking for new things

(sorry for off topic)

Back to gold..... the sucker rally sure is kicking in now

 

[trainspotter]

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Gold futures were steady Monday near seven-week highs as participants remained on edge about the sustainability of the economic recovery but didn't want to purchase new positions ahead of economic data later in the week.

With little fresh news to drive the metal higher after rising last week on disappointing economic figures, the most-actively traded December contract fell 30 cents, or 0.02%, to settle at $1,228.50 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.

"If you're trying to make an argument bullish or bearish right now, it's very difficult," said Ira Epstein, director of the Ira Epstein division of the Linn Group in Chicago. "Nothing's going on."

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20100823-709753.html

Nevertheless, gold is retaining its upward bias. Except for the little blip downwards yesterday.

 

[Mr Z]

LOL... "If you're trying to make an argument bullish or bearish right now, it's very difficult," said Ira Epstein

This time of year and with the COT market structure the way it is the 6 month outlook is bullish.... no two ways around that. I am not sure what could happen to wreck that save say 2008 again with all the leverage on the Comex getting its neck wrung. Still, even then the physical market will dry up and wait it out.

Ira likes charts, you have to turn gold charts upside down if you want to trade and win FWIW

Happy Tuesday to you!

 

[sinner]

With the Aussie dollar approaching its all time highs, as well and the gold oil ratio back around 14-15 I am once again interested in the long term accumulation of shares in Australian gold miners.
View attachment 38323

The Australian XGD index having already flashed a buy signal on the daily.

View attachment 38324

Posted Aug 09 during Tokyo. Close of that day for XGD was 6434. 14 days later and XGD closed the day yesterday at 6636, a full 200 points higher.

Having accumulated some shares in Australian gold miners over this period and armed with this small profit, I will distribute some here back into the market to reduce exposure and retain the rest as part of my "bottom-drawer" portfolio. Once the share goes into the bottom drawer, share price is mostly irrelevant, I only plan to exit this portfolio in the very far distant future or in need of emergency cash funds.

 

[Ageo]

the sucker rally sure is kicking in now

Anyone ride this baby? i expect a few more short puffs before the retracement kicks in.....

Dow plunging is obviously helping the rally....

 

[electronicmaster]

Options Expiry starts today.

I'm surprised they have not smacked the price of Silver and Gold down yet. Lots of Options will expire in the Money if Gold and Silver keeps going up.

Maybe on the 30th of August? Prices might go down?

I wana buy on the cheap

 

[Logique]

Thought this would bring a smile to the faces of the gold bugs. Paulson is one smart guy.

http://www.newsweek.com/2009/11/09/the-greatest-trade-ever.html
The Greatest Trade Ever
(Excerpt from the article):

His [John Paulson] biggest gains are in '07, which now strikes us as a relatively placid time in the market. But in 2008, he was still bearish on housing and pivots to buying credit-default swaps on the institutions that were peddling subprime mortgages, like Bear Stearns. One of the most interesting passages in the book is where he's at this meeting with Bear Stearns.

...By the end of the lunch everybody else in the room was like, "Wow, John Paulson actually knows what he's talking about, the Bear Stearns guys don't. Instead of bringing my money back to Bear Stearns, I'm going to start shorting that stock." And that to me is a final nail in the coffin.

...He made a brilliant bet shorting subprime. But as the book closes, he's buying gold, which doesn't strike me as a particularly out-of-the-box bet in this climate.

He's very good at synthesizing and making some complex topics very simple. And he's made it into a simple argument: the expanded supply of money and the fiat currency is under pressure, and what's the only thing that holds up when the fiat currency is under pressure? It's gold. You could argue that he hasn't achieved that kind of renown as an intellectual, and I'm not sure he's so focused on it. I think he wants it, but he is fascinated by big trades, and his whole life he has been. It's not about the money—listen, he likes his big homes, trust me—but more importantly he just wants to keep making big trades.

 

[Mr Z]

Paulson was buying in the $9xx area... maybe he still is. He didn't get a lot of support for the gold fund he was setting up with a big whack of his own money, a great sign at the time IMO. I'd say there are a few regrets from people that shunned the offer at the time ---> and this party is not even started yet FWIW.



PS: Gold investor..... NOT bug! goldbugs are a certain type, tinned food, survival kits, small coins for trade, the economy & society as we know it is going to die types. LOL in some parts of the US they may well be right in the end but here in Oz I will just be a gold investor..... albeit with a silver lining!

 

[explod]

As I speak we are just a few US dollars short of the all time high for gold.

The canary in the mine though has been the silver price. In 2008 it hit a 28 year high at a time which saw the Dow tumble. At US$19.50 it is not there yet (US$21) but the action of the last few weeks would indicate a test of that spike could be on and; where to the Dow this time?.

With the US Fed's quantative easing easing back in to keep the green shoots ever growing something has to start to give IMV.

My take is that they will hold up the Dow and let the US dollar slide; this has always been very bullish for gold.

Should be an interesting night but as has happened many times just prior to 10am Wall Street time gold can be knocked down $10 in a few minutes.

 

[Mr Z]

Up... LOL!

Nice chart BTW, seasonal winds at our back & get a load of AND

 

[trainspotter]

1st Day of spring will do that to gold ! HEYYYYYYYY ........ it's only returning to where it was in July?

 

[Whiskers]

Yeah, nice spurt... but I'm thinking it won't go on with it much past last high, $1265, if at all. There's serios MACD divergance supporting my previously posted longer term view that this area is about tops and due for a reasonable correction.

I sold my last speciality gold stock on Monday, so I hope I picked close to the top in the short to medium term.

 

[sinner]

So I guess I'm the only one who sold $1254 with a $1266 stop?

The green line is the 90% retracement of 1265-1156 decline. Maybe the start of a strong downwave.

EDIT: Whiskers beat me to it.

Just a small speculative trade, about 10 ounces worth.

 

[trainspotter]

Nice pick chaps. Well done on the timing of your run. Still waiting on a few more indicators before I pull the trigger on this one. Bit more pus to be squeezed out before I fold.

 

[Mr Z]

1st Day of spring will do that to gold ! HEYYYYYYYY ........ it's only returning to where it was in July?

YES! Lovely predictably volatile gold! Kinda like ringing a cash register only scared weird little guys pop out and boo you when you sell and cheer when you buy. Its sooooo much fun

 

[trainspotter]

BOO ! "Cha ching" ... is that better?

What cracks me up is price per gram has gone up only $8.73 per gram over a 12 month period BUT to buy chains or "made" product has nearly doubled?