Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Gold Price - Where is it heading?

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"On the cusp of a parabolic rise up"
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: via the GATA site.

http://www.sprott.com/Docs/Investor...Gold's on the cusp of a parabolic move up.pdf

Good move back up overnight, but watch the stregth of silver and the weakness of the US$ index to preceed big moves up, on the latter, it fell through support around 82 this week, a fall below 80 cents will send the chooks into scatter mode. From my sources bigger players in gold are taking long postisions the last week or so, we shall see.

Interesting week coming up in my view.
 
sinner said:
The red line shows support I am interested in. I exit my gold shorts here because really, I don't like being short gold. I would prefer to take a short position on silver if we go below support on the weekly, as there is some fundamental aspect of that trade - silver still being a strongly industrial commodity.
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Re the above chart and post. We do not know where the gold price is heading, but we do know gold close the week and month above 1180. I feel 1250 shorts were closed at an appropriate spot. Glad I did not make the attempt to chase price lower for now. As mentioned, I can always chase downside using silver for better backing fundamentals, if I feel to go short again. For now just patiently waiting to see what's going to happen - don't need to be in every single market swing.

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sinner said:
Re the above chart and post. We do not know where the gold price is heading, but we do know gold close the week and month above 1180. I feel 1250 shorts were closed at an appropriate spot. Glad I did not make the attempt to chase price lower for now. As mentioned, I can always chase downside using silver for better backing fundamentals, if I feel to go short again. For now just patiently waiting to see what's going to happen - don't need to be in every single market swing.

View attachment 38167
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sinner i think ur sig line explains this gold movement atm.
 
Re: 'Gold price to cross $4,000/oz'

electronicmaster said:
Federal Reserve to start the deflation fight next week, expert claims well see more reports on that next week I think.

'Gold price to cross $4,000/oz'
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Long term yes i agree but short - medium term? not sure about that, it seems any gains anyway are being eroded via a stronger AUD.

1400AU by the yrs end is where i think it will hover around but only time will tell. If your like me you dont really care where it goes short term, atm im just buying up more and more.
 
Im still learning about gold but if we do have big problems in the USA coming and gold goes to $4000 wont the AUD increase in value vs USD thereby aussie investors wont see the big gains?
Or would we be hugely effected by a USA depression so our dollar might even devalue?
We didnt loose anything re AUD:USD post GFC we gained so Im wondering.
 
Chargin8 said:
Im still learning about gold but if we do have big problems in the USA coming and gold goes to $4000 wont the AUD increase in value vs USD thereby aussie investors wont see the big gains?
Or would we be hugely effected by a USA depression so our dollar might even devalue?
We didnt loose anything re AUD:USD post GFC we gained so Im wondering.
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Gold and Silver can (and has) gone up in price while the USD Index is going up at the same time. This is also true when the AUD/USD had been going up in the past year as well.

All currencies will devalue in the end. First the USD then the rest will follow. It is one way to default on the Debt that is in the Trillions or higher.

This is what the G20/G8 meetings are about.

Id say that you would want to keep the Metals until you see a Gold backed Currency.

Remember that the people of Zimbabwe were Trillionairs, but could not feed themselves. Only grains of Gold paid for food.

In Russia, you still had to pay with currency (by law) to buy food. So you need to see if a black market is going to be king or not.

Never sell physical Gold or Silver. Only sell paper because soon, the physical market is bound to dry up. The Physical Market will run out of Silver before they run out of Gold.

Also, don't be surprised if they slam down the price of Gold and Silver. That is the game they play to make people panic sell. Guess who is going to buy it all?
 
It's not just that gold can go up at the same time as USD, but gold actually behaves just like money (if we assume the USDX to be a fair proxy of "money") in times of market uncertainty.

If you had bought bought gold or the USD at the start of 2010 for safety and "store of value" reasons, both would have performed pretty much the same. Buying dollars a bit less volatile. But try draw the same chart comparing USD to oil or USD to 10 year US treasuries. You will see gold matched the behaviour of USDX most closely since 2010 began.
 

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sinner said:
It's not just that gold can go up at the same time as USD, but gold actually behaves just like money (if we assume the USDX to be a fair proxy of "money") in times of market uncertainty.

If you had bought bought gold or the USD at the start of 2010 for safety and "store of value" reasons, both would have performed pretty much the same. Buying dollars a bit less volatile. But try draw the same chart comparing USD to oil or USD to 10 year US treasuries. You will see gold matched the behaviour of USDX most closely since 2010 began.
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Which is unusual. If you look at it from 2002 to 2009 they worked counter all the way. The us$index at 1.20 and gold then at us$350

However in the last month the us$ index has fallen nearly 10%, whilst gold has been flatline. If the us$ index brakes below .80 we may see a collapse. Gold seems to be finding support at this level even though it is at a seasonally quiet time.

Interesting, and good insights there Sinner.
 
sinner said:
It's not just that gold can go up at the same time as USD, but gold actually behaves just like money (if we assume the USDX to be a fair proxy of "money") in times of market uncertainty.

If you had bought bought gold or the USD at the start of 2010 for safety and "store of value" reasons, both would have performed pretty much the same. Buying dollars a bit less volatile. But try draw the same chart comparing USD to oil or USD to 10 year US treasuries. You will see gold matched the behaviour of USDX most closely since 2010 began.
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Oh yes, this is when Greece and soon after the whole EU had issues. The DOW later dropped 1000 points in a day before the massive EU bail out (1 Trillion USD)

Yep, That is the time when the EURO was dropping and everyone in the EU was buying up physical Gold. Others fled to the US treasuries.
 
electronicmaster said:
Oh yes, this is when Greece and soon after the whole EU had issues. The DOW later dropped 1000 points in a day before the massive EU bail out (1 Trillion USD)

Yep, That is the time when the EURO was dropping and everyone in the EU was buying up physical Gold. Others fled to the US treasuries.
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Also to note is the big dip downs in the price of gold is when options expired. They do not like options expiring in the money, so they slam the price of gold and silver down for a week or two.

The Gold price on the last month (July) is JP Morgan (and other commercials) trying to exit out of their massive short positions. The very same short positions that has suppressed both Gold and Silver for some time.

The financial reform bill might have something to do with this, but then again they all want to go long in Gold and Silver too.
 
With the Aussie dollar approaching its all time highs, as well and the gold oil ratio back around 14-15 I am once again interested in the long term accumulation of shares in Australian gold miners.
Picture 4.png

The Australian XGD index having already flashed a buy signal on the daily.

Picture 1.png
 
skcots said:
Excuse my ignorance I am fairly new to this. What is the relevance of the gold : oil ratio?
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Aside from the historical importance (i.e. previously there was no such thing as a "petrodollar" if you wanted to buy oil from the Saudis you had to pay in gold) the fact is if you want to dig up gold you must expend energy, specifically oil.

So the ratio of what one unit of gold (or whatever being mined) is worth compared to a barrel of oil is important as one of the metrics for valuing any mining corp.

http://www.incrediblecharts.com/economy/gold_oil_ratio.php
 
Tried a search of this forum without success:

has anyone been through the process of finding a gold specializing managed fund? Would appreciate any links or shortcuts. I tried Csec, and found one, not even rated by Morningstar (not saying its a bad fund, indeed its results look good, just makes it hard to decide thats all).

No asking for a recomm, just where to start looking.
 
skcots said:
Excuse my ignorance I am fairly new to this. What is the relevance of the gold : oil ratio?
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It can give you a clue as to when one or the other of the markets is out of whack and ***maybe*** offering a tradeable situation. It can stay persistently out of balance for quite a while... anyway, as with other ratios like the gold/silver ratio it means nothing in any absolute sense but it can point you toward a fundamental mis-pricing. Anyway you still have to do the work and find out why the imbalance is occurring. It can be quite opaque because there is no overwhelming single reason for any given relationship at any given time. These ratios are best used as one clue among many. Using the WTIC in a ratio against say XOI is probably going to give you a better idea of oil stock over or under valuation or gold against the HUI for gold stocks. The HUI/Gold ratio sits at 0.38 now, pre GFC that ratio lived closer to 0.50 getting as high as 0.58. Meaning that the HUI can go +25% to get to a more normal relationship with gold and +40% to get to an over value without gold moving a $. That is not going to happen but as gold moves up you can see the potential leverage on offer if a more normal relationship is established. If we hit the high 0.5x's again start looking for reasons to exit the market as we are very likely close to a short term top in the stocks and gold... JMO FWIW.

Ratios can be handy, just take the time to understand why they are where they are before drawing a conclusion!

:2twocents
 
Logique said:
Tried a search of this forum without success:

has anyone been through the process of finding a gold specializing managed fund? Would appreciate any links or shortcuts. I tried Csec, and found one, not even rated by Morningstar (not saying its a bad fund, indeed its results look good, just makes it hard to decide thats all).

No asking for a recomm, just where to start looking.
Click to expand...

Look up Baker Steel Investments they are major SH's in a couple of small miners I own.......
 

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