Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[thesnowyforest]

Also, don't be surprised if they slam down the price of Gold and Silver. That is the game they play to make people panic sell. Guess who is going to buy it all?[/QUOTE]

That comment is GOLD.

 

[Mr Z]

The COT numbers are supportive of a stronger price moving forward. That does not mean we can't fake lower in the near term but that the background is favorable for a decent rally in the mid term. (weeks?) We are less likely to see a big slam with this sort of background... of course this may change with this weeks report but its not so likely without the rally first.

 

[explod]

Tried a search of this forum without success:

has anyone been through the process of finding a gold specializing managed fund? Would appreciate any links or shortcuts. I tried Csec, and found one, not even rated by Morningstar (not saying its a bad fund, indeed its results look good, just makes it hard to decide thats all).

No asking for a recomm, just where to start looking.

Can you give an idea of what you want to achieve.

I have been an investor/trader for 13 years and have not heard of Morningstar, are they a rating group?

Having utilised investment advisers (expensive I might add) for 6 years I learnt that I was much better off putting the ruler over things myself. In doing that of course I had to hit the books and do a great deal of work.

I am basically a trend follower with fundamantal back up. It has served me well. Gold has been in a solid uptrend since 2001, hence my interst in this area.

Put up some questions and you will find plenty of directions will come for you to check. And p/m if you wish, but things you learn openly others can too. Many think that simple questions are stupid. Nothing is like that in sincere discussions here on ASF.

A geat guiding light with a lifetime of experience is Ageo (He is a gold/silver metals dealer working out of Sydney), you will find him on the "Bullion" and "Silver" threads too.

 

[Ageo]

Tried a search of this forum without success:

has anyone been through the process of finding a gold specializing managed fund? Would appreciate any links or shortcuts. I tried Csec, and found one, not even rated by Morningstar (not saying its a bad fund, indeed its results look good, just makes it hard to decide thats all).

No asking for a recomm, just where to start looking.

Interesting you ask this as late last yr 1 major refiner that i deal with closely in Sydney went to a meeting regarding super companies etc... they were there simply to give some more light on the benefits of allocating small sections on their portfolios in physical PM's (gold being the most attractive of course).

For example if large fund managers were allowed to hold Precious Metals then they can give people more of an option to cover themselves in times of uncertainty.... Now the problem with this is most people would say there wouldnt be enough supply to keep up with demand (in allocated PM's not paper)... so in theory the price would most definately need to move up to close that gap..... but for some reason they are not interested still at this stage.... (maybe it makes manipulation harder?? hehe who knows).

Good to see thow hard tangibles making a come back in out markets as lately all you see is paper flying around everywhere backed by nothing.

 

[Logique]

G'day Explod, Hurricane and Ageo,

thanks, much appreciate your comments. Noticed this morning a nice jump to $1215 USD/oz.

Basically what it's about, is I consider exposure to gold a must in these times and into the future. I've always liked to have managed funds in my investment makeup (I'm not the font of all wisdom, so let some professionals work for me) and have been fortunate enough to do well with that strategy.

Holding some direct shares as well.

Physical gold - complicated for a retail investor
Gold backed ETFs - better, so long as you trust the management, and their physical reserves
Direct equities - LGL, NCM, AVO etc - quite good leverage to price, although exposed to broader market volatility
Managed Fund - if I can find one. There are global resources funds out there covering a wider suite of metals. But hey some precious metals diversity might be just fine.

Explod, I'm feeling crook this morning, just heard the latest polls.

 

[Agentm]

i was contemplating an entry into gold

but GS put out a huge report a day ago telling all how brilliant gold was and to get into it big time.

the decision to enter has been made for me now, if GS says buy, then its not the right time to buy at all

staying out right now, i suspect GS will sell heavily as the sheep follow their call.. later on i will consider and entry once the GS move is over..

absolutely expect gold to rise immediately for a short period atm..

all imho and dyor

 

[Ageo]

Well as i mentioned in another forum this appears to be a sucker rally......

You could still see a continue push up, then followed by another correction which hopefully sets itself up for a nice upward trend for the seasonal run.....

Short term volatility i expect but i stand by around the 1400ishAUD by the yrs end......

Jewellery market is very very quiet around the globe, bullion as slowed off also but this time of the yr it usually is much quieter compared to the festive season....

For a long term investor thow these prices are simply a "buy" signal....

 

[trainspotter]

Completely agree with Ageo on this one. I actually have suppliers asking me if I want to buy from them at heavily discounted prices. Jewellery suppliers that is and not the gold mint.

Jewellery market is very very quiet around the globe, bullion as slowed off also but this time of the yr it usually is much quieter compared to the festive season....

June quarter down 18% in the pearl shop. July & August not looking much better.

 

[Ageo]

June quarter down 18% in the pearl shop. July & August not looking much better.

Problem in the jewellery market is too much supply and not enough demand...... Im 1 of the few who still imports 18ct gold as alot of shops you will struggle to see a large selection of 18ct gold jewellery as normally the prices are through the roof on the retail side....

Basically a higher gold price will affect jewellery sales simply because the "cost" will be much higher to the individual customer but the "margin" will be the same and in many cases less so the jewellery shop can make the sale.

This recession (and thats what im calling it for our industry) is very good thow as it should clean out alot of wannabees who just jumped on for the ride when times were good....

Sorry for going off topic but sometimes any market information can be handy in doing your analysis for future trading.....

 

[Mr Z]

So what do we think of the review of commodity position limits and the likely tightening of them over the next six months? The COT reports suggest that the commercials are preparing for some change in that area. Of course we need to watch them going forward but for now their actions are supportive of higher prices. They appear to be shaking the tree, especially in silver, the volatility could be fun. I had a strong day in my bell weather goldies today, certainly seem to be a number of buyers discounting a continued rally. We watch with interest...

 

[trainspotter]

Problem in the jewellery market is too much supply and not enough demand...... Im 1 of the few who still imports 18ct gold as alot of shops you will struggle to see a large selection of 18ct gold jewellery as normally the prices are through the roof on the retail side....

Basically a higher gold price will affect jewellery sales simply because the "cost" will be much higher to the individual customer but the "margin" will be the same and in many cases less so the jewellery shop can make the sale.

This recession (and thats what im calling it for our industry) is very good thow as it should clean out alot of wannabees who just jumped on for the ride when times were good....

Sorry for going off topic but sometimes any market information can be handy in doing your analysis for future trading.....

I still prefer to wrap my pieces in 18ct and use 9ct on the Omega chains. Still sourcing Argyle VVS I's diamonds for the high end quality jewellery pieces. Have really noticed the customer wants the 18ct pieces and tend to shy away from the 9ct stuff? Could possibly drop stone grade and achieve same result but would not feel the same.

I get my gold from the Perth Mint on occasion and have an "alternative" source that is a little cheaper but just a lot easier to deal with. Have even tried prospecting myself with a little touch of success. Still have a rock on the shelf in the lounge room that speckles when the light hits it. Maybe 7 to 8 grams worth.

I can only hope that gold price flattens out and does not take an upward trend. But I know I am wrong. Gold is the safe haven and will continue to be the commodity of choice of the safe haven bretheren.

 

[explod]

I can only hope that gold price flattens out and does not take an upward trend. But I know I am wrong. Gold is the safe haven and will continue to be the commodity of choice of the safe haven bretheren.

What is your reasoning in hoping the gold price will flatten out ?

 

[Sean K]

Completely agree with Ageo on this one. I actually have suppliers asking me if I want to buy from them at heavily discounted prices. Jewellery suppliers that is and not the gold mint.

Jewellery market is very very quiet around the globe, bullion as slowed off also but this time of the yr it usually is much quieter compared to the festive season....

June quarter down 18% in the pearl shop. July & August not looking much better.

Hope you're going OK with this downturn spotter of trains. That's a significant downturn in anyone's language.

 

[trainspotter]

What is your reasoning in hoping the gold price will flatten out ?

Mainly wishful thinking on my behalf but with the AUD as strong as it is I would have thought the smart money would be in currency swaps instead of the tradtional safe havens such as gold. But with the Eurozone and USA still with the jitters it is more than likely it will continue to rise IMO. Maybe $1400 and higher by years end ?

 

[Mr Z]

Investment demand for gold always tends to throttle back jewelry demand. History has taught the jewelry trade to pull back when this sort of price strength occurs. At least that is how it has always looked from the outside. I think that the demand for gold is being more and more driven from the investment side and that tactics may need to change as this market heats up. Of course I would also expect retail customers are experiencing some 'sticker shock'.

Its is going to be an interesting summer, cycles have us due for a good move, some stocks are seemingly anticipating it. Popular targets are in the 1300,1600 and the close to 2k area. I favor 16xx and a blow off higher in conditions develop in the right way (sounds too optimistic no?). Silver also looks good, with some nice wild card possibilities... $2x for sure, $3x looks doable and a complete surprise is possible, limit up days that lead to who knows where (don't bet on it but the fuel is there given the correct conditions). I expect it will out perform at the least, I will be happy with that.

 

[trainspotter]

Hope you're going OK with this downturn spotter of trains. That's a significant downturn in anyone's language.

Thankfully the pearl shop is not the only source of income. The shop had a fantastic previous 12 months so an 18% downturn for the quarter though taking a fair chunk out of turnover has not dented the viability of the enterprise. What surprised me the most was the lacklustre start to the new fiscal year in jewellery sales. Not a lot of cash out there ! Talking to some other jewllers in the big smoke they are having 50% - 70% sales just to create turnover !! Pffffffffftttt now that is doing it tough when you see those kind of signs in the window.

 

[explod]

This blokes take is a good summary of what I have come to understand in relation to where gold may be heading in the medium term. Martin Hennecke interviewed on CNBC. Though I traced him down via the GATA web page he is not associated with them. These fresh analyst takes seem to be increasing.

He talks of the manipulation in commodity and stock markets around the world and that in a GFC2 there will not be the available funds to save the next correction without massive money printing and of couse you can guess the impact on gold and silver from such a point.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1565433403&play=1

Goes for about 5 minutes.

 

[Logique]

Retail generally has been extremely tough, perhaps as bad as many have experienced. When Mr Harvey is on the screen spruiking discount plasmas you know it.

For gold bulls, there was an interesting link someone supplied earlier in this thread:

http://www.commodityonline.com/news/Gold-price-to-cross-$4000oz-30636-3-1.html

This guy thinks 4000, and must be a believer in the giant head and shoulders pattern theory, because he's saying Dow to fall to an unbelievable low of 1,000. I mean imagine it!

A fantasy by comparison to mainstream opinion. But alarmingly, the guy's CV shows he is no mug.

 

[explod]

This guy thinks 4000, and must be a believer in the giant head and shoulders pattern theory, because he's saying Dow to fall to an unbelievable low of 1,000. I mean imagine it!

A fantasy by comparison to mainstream opinion. But alarmingly, the guy's CV shows he is no mug.

Maybe it is manistream opinion that is the fantasy now, reading the business sectors of all the rags yesterday shows busniess commentators becoming very uneasy.

The news clip I provided on the post just prior to yours Logique concludes the same, though he is inferring 5000 plus and give sensible rationale in my view.

I used to believe the Dow would go back to around 1000 and have posted charts and commentary to that effect, it is based on cheap money being inserted at stratiegic times and when you line them up you realise that the rises in the Dow since mid 1990 have been built on borrowing (money printing) etc. However the manipulation on that will continue. And one such facit is that as companies go bellie up (and there has been a huge stream of them the last three years) they are taken out of the index.

 

[Mr Z]

He is pulling punches at $4000, mid $5000 is a cert and really the limit depends on the Federal Reserve. What a USD is worth at that point is another question all together. There are many credible arguments for high 4 digit numbers and that is not considering issue's like the Muslim world is slowly officially re-monetizing gold and silver. If I could tell you the ultimate number today you would laugh in my face.... just like you would have if I told you $800+ when gold was $35.

Gold is heading higher, much higher, how high is down to government monetary policy. So far they are loading this market with rocket fuel.

I'd not count on such a low figure for the DOW, we are pushing into liquidity driven market territory and it could produce some real surprises. Zimbabwe had the hottest stock market in the world, at least in Z$.... We are headed to real stretchy dollar territory so metrics of old will be distorted.

Safe to say that gold will probably hit 1:1 with the DOW ---> but at what number?