Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[lukeaye]

to me, looking for something, that hasnt gone up, or isnt going up, seems to have a very low probabilty of success? seems counter-intuitive

If you are so inclined though, have a look at historical charts on certain commodities when inflation was high. i am not particaulary apt with fundamentals

 

[explod]

Besides Gold is there any other commodity that safeguards against inflation & a depreciating US$??

I use to think platinium might be one such commodity but given the collapse of the price of platinum and it's failure to match the recent increase in the gold price I am no that keen.

Any thoughts on base metals & oil?? I am too chicken to punt on gold to keep going up. I am trying to find something that hasn't gone up yet and I keep coming back to platinum.

Any thoughts??

I believe the energy sector is a very good one. Todays concern by the Government about the pollution of Loy Yang coal fired generator (carbon credit is going to be the issue) will lean governments more towards uranium. Wether we like it or not it is the only practical short term solution with sufficient grunt to replace coal. So urnaium miners have to be good ones.

Physical silver, with mining dropping off (silver is a by product) is a good one. The silver ratio to gold is around the 70 to one. In the 1970s it was about 25 to one. I have both gold and silver.

In 1970 gold was $35 an ounce it went to over 850 and ounce in 1980 a ratio of around 25 to 1. The bottom or start point of this gold run began in 2001 from a base of US$260 an ounce. If we multiply that by 25 times we have a projection to $6,500. Some pundits are saying that this time around conditions for currency devaluation my be worse that the 1970s so who knows gold may go further than that.

Having said that I believe diversification is wise across a number of sectors that you believe have a good future.

If you are very serious about knowing the ins and outs of gold it is well worth taking the time to read over the last two years of this thread, may take a few days but will reward your effort.

Cheers and welcome to the debate, explod

 

[lukeaye]

explod, you are very right, the biggest factor for me is currency, i think we will find the US dollar is going to get alot weaker then people think.

How farfetched does it sound when you say 6,500? but in relative terms to your example before, it isnt. i found the same thing buying my first home, prices seem astronimical compared to 10 years ago, but 10 years ago, they seemed astronmical.

Will this be value in years to come? i for one think so

 

[explod]

explod, you are very right, the biggest factor for me is currency, i think we will find the US dollar is going to get alot weaker then people think.

How farfetched does it sound when you say 6,500? but in relative terms to your example before, it isnt. i found the same thing buying my first home, prices seem astronimical compared to 10 years ago, but 10 years ago, they seemed astronmical.

Will this be value in years to come? i for one think so

You are best to go over the charts and make your own assement. To me on my overall evaluation I think by mid 2012 6,500 will be an achievable target. Many will jump on me for saying this but remember my judgement is made for myself and I back it with a lot (last 7 years) of research on economic fundamentals. That does not still say that I know any more than others or that I am correct ( we tend often to see only what we want to see), its just for me but I enjoy putting it up here for comment as I find contributions out of the woodwork help me to see other angles. A few years ago I was adamant that the US dollar was going down but backed off (not without my explosive rantings of course) when the chart clearly indicated what others (Nick Radge was one and poss t/a) were trying to point out, that it was in a very firm uptrend, think it went up more than 50% and only in the last few months has it collapsed from that. So we learn all the time.

 

[lukeaye]

yeah also good piont. i remember last time gold went to 1,000, my friend who had a healthy knowledge about fundamentals, said luke you should buy gold, im putting 10,000 into spot cfd's on it.

his comments were convincing, fundamentally, it seemed to make sense.

I looked at the charts, shooting star! thank god i stayed out! he was so convinced by what he thought, and what others told him, that he ended up lowering and lowering his stops convinced it would go up from 980, 960, 940, 920. all his cash gone. the charts never lie!

he never traded again!

 

[So_Cynical]

I believe the energy sector is a very good one. Todays concern by the Government about the pollution of Loy Yang coal fired generator (carbon credit is going to be the issue) will lean governments more towards uranium. Wether we like it or not it is the only practical short term solution with sufficient grunt to replace coal. So uranium miners have to be good ones.

Wrong

When u compare uranium/plutonium light water reactors with thorium based Molten-Salt Reactors...u come to realize that uranium is a fuel with a very limited future.

The future is nuclear, but its all about Thorium not Uranium.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Light_water_reactor

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Molten-salt_reactor_experiment

 

[Glen48]

From what I have been reading this is not the big one and expect a dip before it shoots to 1200- 1500.
Peter Schiff claims it could go to 35K and OZ. YEESSS

 

[GumbyLearner]

From what I have been reading this is not the big one and expect a dip before it shoots to 1200- 1500.
Peter Schiff claims it could go to 35K and OZ. YEESSS

Sounds ridiculously outlandish! But hey what is sensible these days?

What this guy? Give me a break!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cSNy...AF0DC6BA&playnext=1&playnext_from=PL&index=10

I should have become a groupie!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[explod]

Wrong

When u compare uranium/plutonium light water reactors with thorium based Molten-Salt Reactors...u come to realize that uranium is a fuel with a very limited future.

The future is nuclear, but its all about Thorium not Uranium.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Light_water_reactor

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Molten-salt_reactor_experiment

I like being wrong because it shows me something new.

Paper today full of articles that coal is not the answer. So/c is there a thread or more information on the thorium based reactors. And your input further would be great. I will google the issue but discussiobn on ASF sounds worthwhile.

 

[Timmy]

Seen this?

IMF is selling approx. one eighth of its total gold holdings (403 metric tons of gold).

IMF press release

Is this a lot (I s'pose if it fell on me I would think so, but in terms of daily gold market volumes)?

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Seen this?

IMF is selling approx. one eighth of its total gold holdings (403 metric tons of gold).

IMF press release

Is this a lot (I s'pose if it fell on me I would think so, but in terms of daily gold market volumes)?

It used to be enough to tank the POG, but a big yawn these days. JP Morgan getting a bit nervous over their short positions, so has put the call out to the comrades

 

[explod]

Seen this?

IMF is selling approx. one eighth of its total gold holdings (403 metric tons of gold).

IMF press release

Is this a lot (I s'pose if it fell on me I would think so, but in terms of daily gold market volumes)?

Yeh, they have trotted this one out a number of times, at particular gold breakout points, over the last few years and it is now well factored in to the price, so as Uncle said, "a bit of a yawn these days"

Big attempt on closing below the ton last night but the buyers keep sweeping in at every higher bottom.

 

[So_Cynical]

Seen this?

IMF is selling approx. one eighth of its total gold holdings (403 metric tons of gold).

Is this a lot (I s'pose if it fell on me I would think so, but in terms of daily gold market volumes)?

According to Wiki, the IMF is the number 4 holder of Gold reserves, and a quick calculation shows that this sale of 403 tons is less than 1% of all gold reserves held by all reserve banks etc.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Official_gold_reserves

I'm sure the last time this was touted (about 3 months ago) the Chinese came out and said they would buy the lot....happy to swap greenbacks for Gold as they only have a reserve of about 1000 tons.

 

[Timmy]

OK. Let me check this.

A metric ton is 1,000 kg;

So 403 metric tons, that would 403,000 kilograms;

That is approx. 14,215,406 oz. (I used http://www.unit-conversion.info/weight.html).

Ballpark daily volume:
The average daily volume of gold ... cleared at the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) in November 2008 was 18.3 million ounces (source)

OK - so if they belted it out in a day it might be an issue LOL.
IMF press release goes into more detail on timetable for selling.

Thanks guys.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I like physical gold. I buy it and bury it to keep it away from the Indons and the Japs or Chinese if they ever come down the Bruce Highway and also from the ex Mrs gumnuts who are always on the bloody highway trying to make me poor.

Gold is so nice to dig up, and take out of the tin and unroll from the cloth and hold.

Physical is best always.

It will never lose value.


gg

 

[hobo-jo]

Seen this?
IMF is selling approx. one eighth of its total gold holdings (403 metric tons of gold).
IMF press release
Is this a lot (I s'pose if it fell on me I would think so, but in terms of daily gold market volumes)?

The IMF sold 1500 tonnes of Gold over the last major bull run from 1976-1980.

China, Russia and India have all expressed interest in buying this Gold.

They have used this story at previous peaks to try and drive the price down, see March 2008, Feb 2009, now, etc. As mentioned above, this story and sale has been priced in already...

 

[Timmy]

They have used this story at previous peaks to try and drive the price down, see March 2008, Feb 2009, now, etc. As mentioned above, this story and sale has been priced in already...

OK, didn't realise that.

Is 'they' the IMF? Why do they want to drive the price of gold down?

They used this story in March 2008 and over the course of the next 9 months the gold price fell nearly 30%. If they were trying to drive the price down looks like that was somewhat successful?

They used this story in Feb 2009 and the price fell 10% over the next 2 months. Again, looks somewhat successful?

Chart attached is sourced from Kitco.com, my arrows to highlight the dates you specified.

 

[hobo-jo]

By "they", I mean those that seek to suppress the Gold price. Obviously this would not be an official line of the IMF and infact they have stated that they will split the sale up so as to avoid influencing the market. Perhaps it is just coincidence and the updates around the sale just come out during times of high Gold interest...

This speaker agrees though that the sale has been used in the way I describe:
http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingwo...ries/2009/9/18_GATA_files/GATA 09:18:2009.mp3

It can hardly be attributed to the full fall in gold price when the articles are released, but I believe it has added fuel to the last two major turn downs. I think the news is now priced in and people would be more confident of there easily being the buyers for the Gold should the sale ever go through.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

One of the objectives behind any central bank is to destroy any credible alternatives to their 'system' of fiat money?

I still think about Gordon Brown selling a big chunk of Britains gold at the bottom of the market and then get rewarded by becoming their PM. With people like him in charge, that's as good as any reason why Britain is in deep poo and best case look like treading water for a long time?

The Tin Hat Brigade at it again

AT the core of a congressional push to audit the Federal Reserve are activists with a larger purpose: to abolish the central bank.

New book: Republican politician Ron Paul has written a book critical of the US central bank.

Thousands of Americans are joining protests and lobbying their politicians in pursuit of the ultimate goal of replacing the Fed with a money system backed by gold or other commodities.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,26085667-36375,00.html

 

[Real1ty]

Thousands of Americans are joining protests and lobbying their politicians in pursuit of the ultimate goal of replacing the Fed with a money system backed by gold or other commodities.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,26085667-36375,00.html

How many is thousands?

2K? 5K? 10K?

What is Americas population, roughly 300 Mill?

I bet the Fed are shaking in their boots.

Shoddy reporting and i'm sure there are thousands of Americans lobbying their politicians for an extra McDonalds on their block as well.