Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[explod]

Gents I know you are all very excited but its actually lagging everything else.

Sure there's some stops that are going to be taken here but it is just playing catch up.

Who's getting excited, we have to at least have a close above the all time intraday high, from memory around 1031

I spose to someone who does not understand that some people only trade a small portion of thier portfolio and have most of the rest in assets that will not be eaten away its a bit hard. That's because some of us think armageddon will come, not sure when but have the powder dry.

 

[roysolder]

well that day is near explod-it will be soon i,ll bear my bot bot in a tutu on asf if it never arrives in 2009
( i hope you all don,t remind me of that comment -happy new year yippy)

 

[Nyden]

And, now what? Gold going to flounder around $1000 for another 2 months, whilst the AUD approaches parity?

 

[Awesomandy]

Might be around 1200 in a few months time, if my drawing is of any guidance.

 

[Naked shorts]

Gold 30,000 by 2012.

 

[wayneL]

Gold 30,000 by 2012.

And a loaf of bread $1,500.

 

[CapnBirdseye]

And a loaf of bread $1,500.

Forget gold, I'm going long on bread.

 

[cuttlefish]

Forget gold and bread, I'm going long on wheelbarrows.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Forget gold and bread, I'm going long on wheelbarrows.

Xactly!!

The funny thing about this gold run is that the bugs are again going to be wrong. We are not going to get hyper inflation or the collapse of the world. Gold is getting dragged up in a bull equities run.

They couldn't of been more wrong

So far.

 

[cuttlefish]

Don't worry TH ... I'm still well and truly long on gold - just going to add wheelbarrows to the mix

I'm not about to get out when the party has just started!

 

[refined silver]

Xactly!!

The funny thing about this gold run is that the bugs are again going to be wrong. We are not going to get hyper inflation or the collapse of the world. Gold is getting dragged up in a bull equities run.

They couldn't of been more wrong

So far.

TH, just curious. You've just expressed a longer term view, do you trade on these? I know most (all?) of your trades are scalping and super-short-term, but do you have some longer term ones on also?

(I know in one sense everyone has longer term trades. House buying/selling/renting, variable rate/fixed rate mortgage, other major purchases etc, etc.)

 

[wayneL]

Forget gold and bread, I'm going long on wheelbarrows.

I'm long on paper mills and helicopter manufacturers.

Between us I reckon we've got this all sewn up.

 

[explod]

Xactly!!

The funny thing about this gold run is that the bugs are again going to be wrong. We are not going to get hyper inflation or the collapse of the world. Gold is getting dragged up in a bull equities run.

They couldn't of been more wrong

So far.

Love ya t/h, you give a man a reason to rise from slumber.

Gold is a hedge and we have talked about that before. The next one is its effects on gold producers (the unhedged ones are best?)

If a gold company produces an ounce of gold at a cost before market at (I will use round figures) say $800 and the sell price is $900 we have a $100 profit. (think SBM has been in this state recently) But if gold rises and holds 1000 then suddenly we have a doubling of the profit component, up 100%. These moves can be traded. sbm up 30% in the last week I think.

Anyway lets move on t/h

Overnight we saw a break only to be brought down by the comex boys, and I cautioned on that, seen it too often, how dare the rest of the world take it up when they are on holidays. Anyway they have made thier point and as I type it is back over the ton again. So do not expect much till tonight and if the us dollar continues its slide (abig one overnight more that 1%) then we may see further strength then.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Don't worry TH ... I'm still well and truly long on gold - just going to add wheelbarrows to the mix

Yes people will need lots to cart the worthless USD around. Its a sure thing.

TH, just curious. You've just expressed a longer term view, do you trade on these? I know most (all?) of your trades are scalping and super-short-term, but do you have some longer term ones on also?

bottom of the draw stuff yes. But have not been able to fine anything that beats daytrading and being in cash each night for smooth equity gains.

But that's is irrelevant to my point. That gold is not a fear/safe investment instrument like the bugs have been telling us for 10 years. Its just another risk taking asset like stocks, oil, derivatives, risk currencies etc.

Its the opposite to what the bugs tell us it is. So far.

EDIT: Explod its no better a hedge than the very things bugs hate. thats the joke. Its actually been worse this year than everything. Hahahahahahaha get the joke?

 

[Beej]

Alan Kohler on Gold today at business spectator:

http://www.businessspectator.com.au...aziness-pd20090909-VPSVF?OpenDocument&src=sph

Gold is the commodity of craziness. Gold miners, even those wearing suits in the city, are all possessed by the ghosts of wild-eyed, bearded prospectors from the gold rushes of the 1850s; gold investors are that unique breed of incurable optimists who don’t want to be paid any income on their capital; and big gold bling wearers are possessed by Mesopotamian princes and princesses.

PS: Even as a speculative investment, given that the sentiment is driven primarily by the $US outlook, and given that the $AU seems to be marching to it's own tune due to our relatively better economic performance, lower debt, better prospects etc, medium term in $AU terms I can't see gold providing a decent return compared to the potential in equities especially and even property over the next few years? I mean even as this $US1000 break occurred, the $AU POG has stayed flat or gone backwards hasn't it?

PPS: As with anything when looking to the future, I could be completely wrong and POG may go to the moon even in $AU terms? But I personally see this as an outside possibility, rather than likely.

Cheers,

Beej

 

[explod]

EDIT: Explod its no better a hedge than the very things bugs hate. thats the joke. Its actually been worse this year than everything. Hahahahahahaha get the joke?

Have never asserted that, you may be surprised to learn that I have been trading energy stocks of recent times with continued good results that satisfy me without the need to be glued to the screen. In the very long term my gold holdings are doing that too. Some years back I did a couple of years glued to it and had excellent results but I went ga ga and my blood pressure through the roof, so got off it.

As of today 12 months ago gold was US$780 (a month later it went down to 730) today it is 1000, so although the ponzie market has maybe done much better I have rested easy knowing that if the market was to fall out of the sky soon(and which I expect on fundamentals) I am relatively safe.

IMHO.

I am no guru gold lover either, just an ordinary investor

 

[wayneL]

PS: Even as a speculative investment, given that the sentiment is driven primarily by the $US outlook, and given that the $AU seems to be marching to it's own tune due to our relatively better economic performance, lower debt, better prospects etc, medium term in $AU terms I can't see gold providing a decent return compared to the potential in equities especially and even property over the next few years? I mean even as this $US1000 break occurred, the $AU POG has stayed flat or gone backwards hasn't it?

PPS: As with anything when looking to the future, I could be completely wrong and POG may go to the moon even in $AU terms? But I personally see this as an outside possibility, rather than likely.

Cheers,

Beej

Well, for $4,500 margin per contract, and about a $4,000 per contact move since breaking out of the triangle and pathetically low transaction costs, it ain't half bad.

Margin makes AUD considerations of little significance.

 

[moXJO]

PS: Even as a speculative investment, given that the sentiment is driven primarily by the $US outlook, and given that the $AU seems to be marching to it's own tune due to our relatively better economic performance, lower debt, better prospects etc, medium term in $AU terms I can't see gold providing a decent return compared to the potential in equities especially and even property over the next few years? I mean even as this $US1000 break occurred, the $AU POG has stayed flat or gone backwards hasn't it?

PPS: As with anything when looking to the future, I could be completely wrong and POG may go to the moon even in $AU terms? But I personally see this as an outside possibility, rather than likely.

Cheers,

Beej

Yes the spanner in the works seems to be that our dollar increase offsets the gains in gold. Probably because our economy is more commodity driven and dollar rises on risk appetite? If we raise rates it will be even worse for gold
In saying that I do have a small gold, and larger silver holding as part of the portfolio.

 

[explod]

Yes the spanner in the works seems to be that our dollar increase offsets the gains in gold. Probably because our economy is more commodity driven and dollar rises on risk appetite? If we raise rates it will be even worse for gold
In saying that I do have a small gold, and larger silver holding as part of the portfolio.

Not exactly right, the Ausie gold price up $4.20 overnight. Not sure of the source but recently pointed out that aussie gold companies sell into $US

 

[Beej]

Well, for $4,500 margin per contract, and about a $4,000 per contact move since breaking out of the triangle and pathetically low transaction costs, it ain't half bad.

Margin makes AUD considerations of little significance.

Yes that's true if you are trading futures rather than buying and holding physical, as your I guess your currency exposure is only over the margin amount rather the on the underlying value.

Cheers,

Beej