Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[weatherbill]

looks like that new gold price is not shaking..... I thought it would have come down by now..... maybe they are planning to drop the price this fall with a bunch of commercial real estate announcements

 

[weatherbill]

One of the objectives behind any central bank is to destroy any credible alternatives to their 'system' of fiat money?

I still think about Gordon Brown selling a big chunk of Britains gold at the bottom of the market and then get rewarded by becoming their PM. With people like him in charge, that's as good as any reason why Britain is in deep poo and best case look like treading water for a long time?

The Tin Hat Brigade at it again

AT the core of a congressional push to audit the Federal Reserve are activists with a larger purpose: to abolish the central bank.

New book: Republican politician Ron Paul has written a book critical of the US central bank.

Thousands of Americans are joining protests and lobbying their politicians in pursuit of the ultimate goal of replacing the Fed with a money system backed by gold or other commodities.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,26085667-36375,00.html

They are playing right into the hands of the central bank, who wants to abolish itself in favor of an international bank called IMF witht he new currency, SDRs......

honorable indeed, but I think they are falling into a trap.

 

[i_in]

http://www.imf.org/External/NP/EXR/faq/goldfaqs.htm

sorry, I saw that someone already wrote about this

 

[explod]

There is little reason for me to post anymore, you are all getting a handle on it.

It is all about the US$ "OF COURSE" which sits at around 76, a little below in the last 24 hours but it hangs on grimly. It is the key...., when it falls away, (if it does) then gold will be in very new territory. Of course it is now, it has never consolidated above the 1000 before and every time it goes near there the buyers come in.

On the past big breaks it has on average increased very quickly by about 60%, so the target, around US$1,600

We will see what pans out, time frame if it breaks, around 6 weeks.

 

[wayneL]

HAs anybody been keeping an eye on the C.O.T. graph

http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/18092009/325/gold-reaches-history-rally-add.html

Yahoo has a bit of a spiel on Gold & COT today FWIW.

(For interest only)

SNIP:

A STRETCH

Most of the run higher has been led by major flows into the U.S. COMEX gold futures market, with trading investors and speculators vastly increasing long positions, leaving the price vulnerable to rapid and sharp falls.

The latest weekly Commitments of Traders report published by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed net long positions had widened to a massive 224,676 as of September 8 compared with 184,501 a week earlier.

Positioning looks set to extend more, but the longer it gets, the bigger the risk.

"Everybody is saying the market is too long, but no-one wants to sell," said Ronald Leung, director of Lee Cheong Gold Dealers in Hong Kong.

"There's too much money in the world as central banks take easy policy and as funds push up the market with the money. They see (the) gold market as easy to manipulate...like a casino."

But flows into exchange traded funds, the beneficiary of gold buying earlier in the year, have not kept pace with the latest price surge, and physical demand from the jewellery sector has gone cold.

Inflows into gold-backed ETFs have picked up a little after plateauing over the summer months, but remain well down on the first quarter's record levels.

 

[doctorj]

Citi's latest note on gold for any that are interested.

 

[Sean K]

Gold has advanced due to USD collapse right?

What happens when it get's quoted in something else?

Is this possible?

 

[explod]

Gold has advanced due to USD collapse right?

What happens when it get's quoted in something else?

Is this possible?

Who really knows, there are all sorts of amazing claims from both bull and bear camps at the moment. I only go on fundamantals now, which in my view for most currencies will be bad in the longerterm and of course historical reactions the most recent being the run in 1970 to 1980. In this run we are a long way from a top yet comparatively IMVHO

 

[Uncle Festivus]

How many is thousands?

2K? 5K? 10K?

What is Americas population, roughly 300 Mill?

I bet the Fed are shaking in their boots.

Shoddy reporting and i'm sure there are thousands of Americans lobbying their politicians for an extra McDonalds on their block as well.

People are angry, and so is Congress.......

So much for the ongoing secrecy of the nation’s independent central banking system. A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 75% of Americans favor auditing the Federal Reserve and making the results available to the public.

Just nine percent (9%) of adults think that’s a bad idea and oppose it. Fifteen percent (15%) aren’t sure.

Over half the members of the House now support a bill giving the Government Accounting Office, Congress’ investigative agency, the authorization to audit the books of the Federal Reserve Board.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub..._business/july_2009/75_favor_auditing_the_fed

 

[Whiskers]

A bit of a sharp drop under 1,000 again... CBGA members squaring up their accounts before September 26???

 

[explod]

A bit of a sharp drop under 1,000 again... CBGA members squaring up their accounts before September 26???

Nah, they say weak housing data cheers

 

[explod]

September 24, 2009 at 2:17 pm

Filed under: Trader Dan Norcini

Dear CIGAs,

There appears to be a deadly contest occurring in the Dollar market over the 76 level on the USDX. As I have mentioned in my prior commentary, a closing downside breach of 76 and the USDX will promptly drop to 74. That will be enough to allow gold to shoot to $1,030 and take out that level. Once that level gives way on a close, momentum funds will flood into the gold market overwhelming the ability of Goldman and Morgan to suck down all the gold bids into their magic price capping box and we should see an acceleration higher. I am not sure who is supplying the bid to the Dollar to attempt to prevent this but their footprint is evident on the hourly charts. There was nothing in yesterday’s FOMC statement that was the least bit Dollar friendly.

And I thought the timing was brilliant, $15 drop in the first hour of US trade. This is the one I cautioned about a few weeks back. Of course in tune with the GW summint

 

[Sean K]

And I thought the timing was brilliant, $15 drop in the first hour of US trade. This is the one I cautioned about a few weeks back. Of course in tune with the GW summint

I thought gold had developed a 'life of it's own' a couple of weeks ago?

 

[explod]

Just been doing a bit of a size up. On current market behaviour, oil,.dollar and chart, we could most likely see a correction down to the 965/70 area before we get going again. The top and bottom line of the old pennant looks like support in that area and it lines up with general trend from about April

Just my thoughts

coupla weeks ago

kennas Re: Gold Price - Where is it heading?


I thought gold had developed a 'life of it's own' a couple of weeks ago?

The ponzies are being called to account and are on the death bed but sure they wont' go without this final thrust down to try and clear some of their inner trades (is that like a laxative?).

Just MHO.

 

[Sean K]

While I've read here and there that people are changing USD for Gold, I just can't see how the world is going to allow the USD to completely tank and stand by as their national reserves (in USD) disintegrate. Maybe it will be an orderly disintegration?

 

[explod]

While I've read here and there that people are changing USD for Gold, I just can't see how the world is going to allow the USD to completely tank and stand by as their national reserves (in USD) disintegrate. Maybe it will be an orderly disintegration?

One of the factors working against the Dollar is persistent strength in the Yen which continues moving higher with nary a peep out of the Bank of Japan or the Ministry of Finance. That it has been doing so is all the more remarkable considering the attention that the yen garners from those two quarters. As a currency trader I can remember more than a few occasions scanning the wire services in the wee hours of early morning for comments from those folks in an attempt to glean the level of the yen above which they would foray forth to beat us speculators into submission. Based on their silence one can only come to the conclusion that the Dollar/Yen level is losing its fascination with the monetary authorities in Japan who now appear to be looking across the water at China and further over to India as their future financial interest centers. Could it be that the 51rst state of the Union is “seceding” from Uncle Sam’s fiefdom as it witnesses the implosion of US economic might? I think so. After all, outside of the US everyone and their mother can see the handwriting on the wall detailing the demise of US economic might. Self interest still rules supreme not only in the individual but among nations. Japan is wisely doing what is in its long term financial interest.

Just a bit more from Trader Dan Norcini today.

If the US financial establishment would face reality maybe an orderly disingagement could occur, but no one wants to be the one putting the hand up. So my take is that like the Weimer Republic and Zimbabwe the collapse of the $US and its financial system will not be pretty for them. We just dont' know the timing but the rest of the world is losing patience and making it known, and that is a recent event.

 

[Sean K]

So my take is that like the Weimer Republic and Zimbabwe the collapse of the $US and its financial system will not be pretty for them.

Are you really comparing the collapse of these currencies (no idea what the Weimer was) to the USD? Are we missing something in regard to the importance of the value of the dollar to some parts? Surely if USD turns to toilet paper so does much of the globe? Maybe that's what you're predicting, but will it be allowed?

 

[wayneL]

If the US does a Weimar, so does most of the rest of the west... and much of the east too.

 

[explod]

If the US does a Weimar, so does most of the rest of the west... and much of the east too.

Of course, it all gets back to meaningful production. The US production (GDP)is 70% consumption which cannot be sustained much longer. Australia is heading down the same path, stimulas packages for what ? consumption Tangible assets, land, gold et al to hold value, work and sweat, real production for proper value growth the reward for that toil.

We luckily have the big pits, primary production (food) etc., and there a many productive countries nearby with solid cheap labor feeding off those pits.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

While I've read here and there that people are changing USD for Gold, I just can't see how the world is going to allow the USD to completely tank and stand by as their national reserves (in USD) disintegrate. Maybe it will be an orderly disintegration?

If you have a trillion of something that is losing it's value daily then you go along with the game for fear of losing the lot. But in the meantime you make moves to divest yourself of these IOU's for physical things like commodities, or alternative means of wealth exchange, like gold.

The IMF is coming to the party with a 10 fold increase in the number of SDR's in circulation to near $300 Billion. The recent announcement of the imminent sell off of a portion of their gold reserves is testament that central banks and similar entities are getting close to their last gasp on how to keep global liquidiity velocity moving, instead of just juicing up the equity markets by manipulating the Dow futures via Goldman Sachs etc.

There should be one last hurrah back to US safe haven bonds/treasuries before the real game starts for gold, that is when the workings of the Fed and accomplices are revealed, through a newly invigorated justice & regulatory system.

The only thing missing in this drama is some sort of announcement from the US that they too will be selling a part of their (supposedly - hasn't been 'audited' since 2006?) huge gold reserves to pay for things. Have a think about it - if they wanted to raise money they could do this without having to sell bonds/treasuries, so why havn't they? Probably because they don't have any gold left after using swaps & leasing to divest themselves of a large chunk of their reserves. Or selling via the back door through the IMF?

How about this gem on market trasparency -

But we want to continue that strategy which we’ve followed from the beginning, of being very up-front with markets on what’s going on. So, before we initiate the sale, the Board felt it would be useful to just inform markets we’re about to do it.

Yeah right, try to get the best possible price by telling everyone you are about to dump some gold on the market?

It's no surprise that the architect of the IMF sales is also a key player in the global gold market. Andrew Crockett, President of JP Morgan Chase International and former General Manager of the Bank for International Settlements. Guess who will be in charge of investing the funds - his mates on Wall Street.

Investments can be placed in the hands of professional managers, whose fees and charges would be small relative to the additional income.

Small fees & charges......mmm, do such managers even exist?

Getting closer...........