Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[GumbyLearner]

Here's Schiff's latest take on Gold

http://news.goldseek.com/EuroCapital/1252074153.php

 

[explod]

...As I said yesterday morning... The real winners of the day were the Precious Metals... It could be repeated this morning too! And most likely Monday morning too! Gold is taking off in flight right now, and if you blinked the last two days, you've missed it! It's off about $3 bucks this morning, but give it a chance to have investors see it heading to $1,000 again!

The thing I think you need to think about here is the fact that there are tons, and tons of money sitting in bank accounts right now, and I wouldn't be surprised to see that money begin to make its way toward Gold purchases! This is normal isn't it? I mean, an asset class, like Precious Metals / Gold, begins to move higher, and then the money begins chasing the price higher and higher... There's an old saying about how you can lead a horse to water, but you can't make it drink... That's how I feel about Gold... I've have given the wink and nod for so many years about Gold... But I can't make you buy it!
...

From Chuck Butler overnight on Everbank, his blurb is more currency trading so does not talk on gold often.

If the price consolidates here and can hold till US trading Teusday then we may be able to get excited next week.

 

[Sean K]

Looks like a nice breakout from the triangley thing, will be interesting to see how the $1000 ish mark goes now.

Will Indians stop buying it because it's getting so expensive? Is this sort of thing a factor? Or, will investment buying be a stronger drive?

 

[explod]

Looks like a nice breakout from the triangley thing, will be interesting to see how the $1000 ish mark goes now.

Will Indians stop buying it because it's getting so expensive? Is this sort of thing a factor? Or, will investment buying be a stronger drive?

Interesting that the Indian factor is continually trotted out. It is now only about 14% of the gold market demand. The main buying over the last two or three years has come from bar hoarding for investment, fabricators have found it hard to keep up to demand for some 12 months now.

The videa of Gumby's says a great deal, the growing China market alone is going to set of a cracker IMHO

However only time will tell but next week will certainly be interesting. This is actually the fifth time that we have been at around this price level.

 

[Sean K]

Interesting that the Indian factor is continually trotted out.

I meant India as an example of jewelery buying. I think they are the biggest, then ...

Any idea how much that makes up the market, in total? Is it an overall factor in gold demand?

 

[explod]

I meant India as an example of jewelery buying. I think they are the biggest, then ...

Any idea how much that makes up the market, in total? Is it an overall factor in gold demand?

It used to be but not now. Ageo would be able to put a precise break up on it.

He's probably off to the regional scrap markets for the weekend.

 

[strategist]

GOLD

H4 graph
The gold is consolidating at level 994 (the crossing of “Z” weekly trend line and “B+” – the higher bound of daily uptrend). This level is a key one and it determines further direction of the market for near future. As we can see, the higher bound of the “triangle” figure had been broken (level 977, “C+” trend line), which speaks in favor of the gold’s rising to the level of intermediate resistance 1024 (“K” weekly trend line). But it’s now worth excluding the variant of downtrend development followed by drop to level 974, and possibly even to 940.

That’s why there are two variants of events to proceed:
1. Since the higher bound of “triangle” was broken up, we’re moving towards level 1024. This scenario is confirmed if the gold manages to hold ground above 994 and doesn’t drop any lower than 974.
2. “Z” trend line shows a strong resistance and the gold retreats to support 974, if it drops below level 984. Such fact will weaken the hope for continuation of the uptrend and getting to level 1024. That’s why, if the market will then go under level 974, it will get to support 940.

Daily graph (from 09.06.09)
The gold is consolidating at level 994 (the crossing of “Z” weekly trend line and “B+” – the higher bound of daily uptrend). This level is a key one and it determines further direction of the market for near future. As we can see, the higher bound of the “triangle” figure had been broken (level 977, “C+” trend line), which speaks in favor of the gold’s rising to the level of intermediate resistance 1024 (“K” weekly trend line). But it’s now worth excluding the variant of downtrend development followed by drop to level 974, and possibly even to 940.

That’s why there are two variants of events to proceed:
1. Since the higher bound of “triangle” was broken up, we’re moving towards level 1024. This scenario is confirmed if the gold manages to hold ground above 994 and doesn’t drop any lower than 974.
2. “Z” trend line shows a strong resistance and the gold retreats to support 974, if it drops below level 984. Such fact will weaken the hope for continuation of the uptrend and getting to level 1024. That’s why, if the market will then go under level 974, it will get to support 940.

Weekly graph (from 09.06.09)
The gold rose above level 977 (above the higher bound of “triangle” figure), which speaks that the market is supposed to approach target level 1115 soon. There is a resistance on the way up, level 1024 (“K” trend line), which the market will need to pass. So, while we’re trading under 1024, there is a probability of drop to level 990–977. If the gold eventually rises above 1024, there will be no obstacles on the way to 1115.
Alternatively, in case the gold drops beow level 940 (breaks the “C” trend line), it will get to level 863.

 

[GumbyLearner]

I think $1000, the miracle 4 digit rise will happen tonight without US markets open.

Any thoughts/predictions?

Just my opinion

DYOR

 

[wayneL]

The "official" seasonal bull starts on the 9th. Maybe that will push it over the top.

 

[GumbyLearner]

The "official" seasonal bull starts on the 9th. Maybe that will push it over the top.

Yes WayneL. The seasonals will have a say considering gold has been down in the doldrums during the Northern Hemisphere summer NOT!

I'm waiting in anticipation of the inevitable.

Where's amory?

It just wouldn't be right to crack the physical and/or aussie producer stocks and all without him being present.

 

[weatherbill]

I think Gold gets a bit of a sell of monday. I think it does a dip after the announcements come out of a commercial real estate problem. Spike then dip, like last year

 

[GumbyLearner]

I think Gold gets a bit of a sell of monday. I think it does a dip after the announcements come out of a commercial real estate problem. Spike then dip, like last year

Well of course Weatherbill, real commods are toast!

 

[roysolder]

gumbyleaner you crack me up-you took the words out of my mouth "wheres amory"
explod has been very quiet (old and wise i guess) i know he would say its a little too soon to be celebrating

 

[explod]

gumbyleaner you crack me up-you took the words out of my mouth "wheres amory"
explod has been very quiet (old and wise i guess) i know he would say its a little too soon to be celebrating

Thanks for the plug there Royboy, not sure about the wise bit.

However gold is poised this time I think, we have had some consolidation at a level not seen before. As always the US$ index is the key. There is a considerable tussell between bulls and bears at the 78 level (for some weeks now), a break through that to below 77.50 and then the party will be on as next support for the index is around 76.00

 

[roysolder]

explod- with china encouraging their people to buy gold and the us say save save save is there gonna be enough gold to go around?just kidding

 

[explod]

explod- with china encouraging their people to buy gold and the us say save save save is there gonna be enough gold to go around?just kidding

Well that 's what us long term gold bugs are hoping, only time and the price will tell.

And sorry Roysolder for the error on you name in the last post. Trying to drop you in size pal.

Notice your OGC firming back up, do you live anywhere near to the mine itself.

 

[roysolder]

no problem explod,i actually like the royboy at my ripe old age-to answer you question regarding my proximity to ogc ,s mine i,m just licking the dirt off my tongue as we speek lol.
you know when you find a little chunk of gold or a gem it just automatically go,s right in your mouth to clean it

 

[explod]

Well, we have gone past the grand, us$1001.20 as of now. Just have to see what the comex boys think, fresh back from their labor day holiday. If it holds through that then we just may have something for the rest of the week.

 

[explod]

no problem explod,i actually like the royboy at my ripe old age-to answer you question regarding my proximity to ogc ,s mine i,m just licking the dirt off my tongue as we speek lol.
you know when you find a little chunk of gold or a gem it just automatically go,s right in your mouth to clean it

Have heard that it you swallow the stuff and stay on the high fibre you can accumulate a bit at the bottom of the bowl, gold that is.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Gents I know you are all very excited but its actually lagging everything else.

Sure there's some stops that are going to be taken here but it is just playing catch up.