Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[explod]

There are usually no indicators on a Monday, tonight so far is looking very different.

On any substantive rise in the gold price silver usually shows the way. It is up .40cents US today and the US dollar index as at 7.am US time showing a typical dip which usually preciptates a down dollar day. The gold price firming but not a lot so it is too early to call.

The US market opening in 20 minutes will tell the real tale. Will this week be the real break.?

We will soon see, and of course from this point it could be savaged a long way down.

 

[wayneL]

There is a well known seasonal bull that runs from around sept 9 to about the 1st week of oct.

There is also an *almost* free money non seasonal (For those who've read Stu Johnstons book) coming up.

 

[moXJO]

Someone was beeping on about China's citizens being able to invest in silver again or something. Or was that just another ramp. I should have probably paid attention.

 

[Ageo]

There is also an *almost* free money non seasonal (For those who've read Stu Johnstons book) coming up.

Not familiar with this 1, must go back to my textbooks.....


The problem with this seasonal bull will be our dollar wiping out any gains.

Only time will tell

 

[wayneL]

Not familiar with this 1, must go back to my textbooks.....


The problem with this seasonal bull will be our dollar wiping out any gains.

Only time will tell

The non-seasonal won't be in any textbook, but the book mentioned describes the method. You just need a historical database (from whence the seasonal trades come from).

As far as the AUD/USD factor, that is the advantage of trading on margin, even if not using the leverage available. There is an intrinsic currency hedge in not having to cough up the AUD for 95% of the trade.

 

[explod]

Good charts on the current state of play on the following link. Of note also, in late trade on New York, dollar dropped a fair bit on job numbers. Such info and reaction in the past has seen it continue into the next session so would not be surprised to see gold break upwards by the close of trade in the morning.

the link: www.usagold.com/cpmforum/?=1872880


cheers explod

 

[amory]

Gold going up ... now that is News!!!

but for my money, give me Copper any time ... or even light-as-a-feather Lead! Gold is for the sort of people who join cults where they practise mass suicide ... JimSinclair the leader ... anyone second the nomination?

 

[explod]

On the weekly, gold has closed for the last six weeks at very close to US$950, any slight drop brings in the bulls and any approach at 960 the bears. The lowest daily close was 930. In all my observations since 2004 I have not seen such a narrow long sideways movement, if you could call it that.

The HUI index is also range bound. The US dollar in the same period has dropped about 1.5%

Where we are going from hear is anyones guess but it does reflect the uncertainty across most markets. Is this perhaps a realisation that just maybe there are no green shoots. I would be surprised if something does not break soon.

Any other takes ?

 

[roysolder]

amory- what are you doing on this thread ?
i have,nt see one positive reply from you.explod always backs his opinions with facts!

 

[Trembling Hand]

amory- what are you doing on this thread ?
i have,nt see one positive reply from you.explod always backs his opinions with facts!

Actually I will challenge that. Explod often spews out lines about derivatives and manipulation of various things that cannot be supported with measurable facts at best. And I have argued are just wrong on a few occasions.

 

[roysolder]

is,nt this forum about help and support,not bagging each other?

 

[Trembling Hand]

is,nt this forum about help and support,not bagging each other?

Something stated as a fact that isn't is not helpful.

Having only one point of veiw is not helpful.

 

[refined silver]

Gold breakout # 1,357 now in progress.

Whether this one lasts for 5 mins, 5 days, or much longer is anyones guess.

 

[Gekko]

Resistance annihilated. Looking to test $1000 in this run. If it holds $1000, then all bets are off. Shorts will be the one's annihilated.

 

[wayneL]

Shorts will be the one's annihilated.

Maybe they'll just exit?

 

[wayneL]

I'm in the bull camp and positioned for upside, but not getting too excited yet.

There is the small matter of a triangle to break out of yet.

 

[refined silver]

Maybe they'll just exit?

They will, but my guess is $1250-1300 before they've all squeezed through the door.

Thats assuming of course that this breakout does end up taking out $1000

:bite:

 

[wayneL]

They will, but my guess is $1250-1300 before they've all squeezed through the door.

Thats assuming of course that this breakout does end up taking out $1000

:bite:

Most of the shorts are commercials, so a squeeze might not be applicable

 

[cuttlefish]

seriously though, when the time comes to deliver there really isn't much gold is there? or is there? I suspect it's easier to deliver USD if it comes to the crunch - and if you're stuck for USD you can always ask for more (please sir ...can i?).

 

[refined silver]

Most of the shorts are commercials, so a squeeze might not be applicable

True. And they are backed by the resources of the US govt.

However in the 70s the commercial shorts thought they were still trading against the fringe gold bugs, and didn't perceive when the rules had changed and they had Central Bank buying on the other side ot the trade and they got creamed. The CBs had been sellers til the mid to late 70s and then became buyers. The same is happening today as China and other BRIC CBs have become buyers, and EU Banks slow or stop selling.