Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[explod]

Another higher low on the weekly this week, our pennant now in a very tight range of 947 to 965, gold pundits say a break upwards should occur towards the end of August, chart says it has to break one way or the other very soon.

(NB) Note well: In this statment I make no predictions, I am an observer only and pass on only the facts as are available.

 

[Beej]

However the past has shown that gold compared to paper money has more than held its value and it would appear that this will continue.

Can't the same be said for ANY investment class though? I mean if the goal is just to beat "paper money" we are only talking there about beating the risk-free cash rate/return right? I think since 1969 that property of any sort and shares would also lay the exact same claim, and in fact both may well have out-performed gold dramatically over that period, in both capital growth and of course accumulated income through dividends and rent

I think gold has it's place as a bit of a $US inflation hedge in an internationally biased diversified portfolio of different investment assets, but I don't subscribe to the "faith" held by many a serious gold-bug - especially when you look at Gold returns over the past 10 years in say $AU rather than just $US.

Cheers,

Beej

 

[explod]

I think gold has it's place as a bit of a $US inflation hedge in an internationally biased diversified portfolio of different investment assets, but I don't subscribe to the "faith" held by many a serious gold-bug - especially when you look at Gold returns over the past 10 years in say $AU rather than just $US.

Cheers,

Beej

Absolutely agree, I am diversified into many other investments also, so where's the problem. Gold in my view is just another of the good ones, but not yet when measured against the past in overvalued territory. Its trend has been steady, the housing market for instance seems to be rising exponentially, as did the dot.com and till recently the stock market. Why are you against or single out gold for castigation.

I have no stubborn faith in gold at all, but for me, and I emphasise that, it is a part of my portfolio as a hedge, and it has so far done fine.

cheers explod

 

[Beej]

Absolutely agree, I am diversified into many other investments also, so where's the problem. Gold in my view is just another of the good ones, but not yet when measured against the past in overvalued territory. Its trend has been steady, the housing market for instance seems to be rising exponentially, as did the dot.com and till recently the stock market. Why are you against or single out gold for castigation.

I have no stubborn faith in gold at all, but for me, and I emphasise that, it is a part of my portfolio as a hedge, and it has so far done fine.

cheers explod

Sounds eminently sensible!

My only issue is with died-in-the-wool fiat currency hating one-eyed gold hoarding types. They remind of the guys that used to walk around the city with placards on their backs and chests stating "The End Is Nigh" and all that...... Putting all your eggs in one basket and then hoping gleefully for a catastrophic economic event that would wipe out the livelyhoods of 99% of the population of the country, just seems, well, wrong to me And also naive - so I guess that's where gold cops some flak due to this "faithful" army of true believers that are always banging on about it in this manner.

Anyway too many red wines and enough said on the above topic by me for now! Will certainly be interesting to see where the POG heads from here; hard to tell as stated it seems very range bound, but there seem to be reasonable outlooks that could take it either way from here in the shorter term.

Cheers,

Beej

 

[amory]

Another higher low on the weekly this week, our pennant now in a very tight range of 947 to 965, gold pundits say a break upwards should occur towards the end of August, chart says it has to break one way or the other very soon.

(NB) Note well: In this statment I make no predictions, I am an observer only and pass on only the facts as are available.

funny how you talk facts as you see them & I talk facts as I see them ... must be two different sets of facts out there.

talk down at me all you want Explod ... anyone holding lots of gold stocks at this point in time (is there any other?) would have to be asking WTF is going on????

 

[GumbyLearner]

only because you profess to be replying to my post (which you quote) otherwise I wouldn't bother ... do you think you could try & explain in simple english what you are talking about???

In simple English this bloke may help

http://www.businessspectator.com.au...diggers-pd20090817-UZ566?OpenDocument&src=sph

Stephen Bartholomeusz
17 Aug, 2009

Good-time gold diggers

Newcrest Mining enters the post-crisis period in as good a shape as any resource company in the globe. The challenge for Ian Smith and his team will be to use the financial firepower they have accumulated to add to the surging organic growth within Newcrest’s portfolio of world class gold operations.

While the group’s underlying earnings fell marginally, with lower output from the Cadia Valley mines in NSW offset by higher prices, Newcrest generated over $1 billion of cash flow from its operations and, thanks to a capital raising of nearly $800 million earlier this year, has a virtually debt-free balance sheet.

With reserves rising, production costs falling and capital expenditure having peaked, Newcrest is moving into what should be a golden era. It continues to forecast a 40 per cent increase in gold production over the next five years and a 30 per cent increase in copper output. It also re-confirmed its forecast of a 30 per cent reduction in cash costs per ounce over that same period.

In a sector where the major players are struggling to offset reserves depletion with new resources, Newcrest lifted its gold reserves seven per cent and its copper reserves 13 per cent. Its gold resources rose 13 per cent and copper 56 per cent and there is substantial latent potential in its portfolio of established and emerging projects.

Is that simple enough amory?

 

[Wysiwyg]

In simple English this bloke may help

It`s funny how our perception is variable dependant upon ownership or not. I see a story of par results and future hopes. Probably another Lihir.

 

[GumbyLearner]

It`s funny how our perception is variable dependant upon ownership or not. I see a story of par results and future hopes. Probably another Lihir.

No doubt a lot of the variability of perception is dependent on ownership. No-one wants to back a loser.

The key with Newcrest is they are World Top Ten. The only one of the top ten that can grow their resource base organically without needed to pursue acquisitions to grow their base. Also, geo-politically most of there assets are based in Oz. Unlike most of the majors.

Lihir's main resource is next door to a volcano and after that Africa. Plus they just ditched a rightdown with Ballarat.

NCM is a solid-stable smart low-cost growing producer. This coming year they will have a good exposure to silver as well. They also recently discovered a 170,000t Tungsten deposit right next door to Telfer.

So they are not just some one-trick pony for any goldbug dummy to invest in.

Very well managed with 2% gearing! Are there any other major Aussie resource plays with that kind of gearing? What about Rio Tinto?

Anyway Ramp over. Today's 85% profit increase was a great announcement for the company.

Still Hold

dyor

 

[hitmanlam]

Another higher low on the weekly this week, our pennant now in a very tight range of 947 to 965, gold pundits say a break upwards should occur towards the end of August, chart says it has to break one way or the other very soon.

(NB) Note well: In this statment I make no predictions, I am an observer only and pass on only the facts as are available.

Looks like it broke down.

 

[GumbyLearner]

Looks like it broke down.

How?

Gold has traded above $900 an ounce for almost 2 years now.

Goodbye bit-part player HitManLam! :goodnight

 

[GumbyLearner]

Looks like it broke down.

bring it!

http://books.google.com/books?id=zF...ge&q=indoor management rule australia&f=false

 

[Tradesurfer]

I trade price first and a technician. But something an economist said to me recently caught my interest: what he said was that nations may have to sell gold to meet debt obligations.

Haven't thought of that....

But from a technical level- gold just can't get above the old highs and now touching some uptrending higher lows

 

[explod]

From Mineweb

NEW ORLEANS -



The slow trading months of summer are usually a time when gold prices decline, but economic analysts at Blanchard and Company, America's largest precious metals investment firm, say that indicators this year have them believing the metal is poised for a big breakout by the end of the third quarter.

Specifically, inflation, possible hyper-inflation, dollar weakness, and supply/demand and investor demand fundamentals are all positive for the price of gold toward the end of the summer, says Donald W. Doyle, Chairman and CEO of Blanchard and Company.

While gold remains range bound, it does so at levels above $900 per ounce, which Doyle says he sees as a springboard to greater price gains, and even new record highs, through the remainder of the year - and beyond.

"Gold is performing strongly at the same time the stock market is making a mild rally and as the dollar continues to stay at a level that we consider to be inordinately high," Doyle says. "Typically, gold would be declining - but that's not happening, and there are solid reasons why."

Doyle says demand is central to gold's current sustained high price levels, with Chinese and Russian central banks adding to their holdings and investor demand continuing at record levels.

"The fundamentals for gold, and particularly investment demand, are very strong," Doyle says. "Sales of gold by the U.S. Mint, which have always been a good proxy for U.S. investment demand, are approaching those of all of 2008 - a banner year for gold - and it's only the beginning of August."

Through July of 2009, the U.S. Mint has sold 756,500 ounces of gold as compared to 247,500 ounces through July 2008 - an increase of more than 300 percent for the same time period. The Mint sold 860,500 ounces of gold during all of 2008.

The other catalyst for gold's future price rise, Doyle says, is the likelihood of inflation and dollar weakness, both of which are very real considering the record amounts of liquidity and stimulus that are making their way into the global economy.

"For some time now, we have been in the middle of a disinflationary recession, hardly a propitious time for gold to boom," Doyle says. "However, despite the short-term outlook for inflation, the longer-term picture looks to be just the opposite, particularly in the wake of record government deficits and extraordinary easing in monetary policy."

Doyle also says the case for gold now is being made by people who, in the past, recommended only stocks. In Merrill Lynch's "Metals Strategist," Merrill predicts that the unintended consequence of the bailouts will be a return of inflationary pressures to the commodity markets. If the Fed fails to keep foreign capital interested in financing its twin deficits, the U.S. dollar could spiral downward, providing strong support to commodity prices. The weaker dollar will then help gold break through to new record price levels of $1200-$1500 per ounce.

"Morgan Stanley's analysts are divided on which threat is worse for the global economy, deflation or inflation, but say that gold is a safe bet in either outcome," Doyle noted. "Morgan Stanley looked at the possibility of hyperinflation hitting the U.S., and their conclusion is an interesting one."

 

[Ato]

What do people think of Jim Sinclair? A couple of people I know recommend him, and while I tend to agree with alot of what he says, he seems a little over the top, and is sometimes quite incomprehensible. How have his predictions gone in the past?

 

[explod]

What do people think of Jim Sinclair? A couple of people I know recommend him, and while I tend to agree with alot of what he says, he seems a little over the top, and is sometimes quite incomprehensible. How have his predictions gone in the past?

Yes he is extreme to say the least but some contributors on his site I follow. Trader Dan Norcin seems to be in touch on the bullion trading floor. You just have to sift each for what you can pick up.

I like James Turk and the Aden Sisters on Kitco, they put out a free blurb each about once a month.

 

[M34N]

explod, I'm not sure if you've answered this before, but I know you are long gold and have been for some years now, but are you holding any gold stocks?

Interested to know what some people here think about the falling gold stocks here (in particular our biggest NCM and LGL) and the relative stability of those on the US HUI/XAU indexes (like NEM, AU and KGC) and the gold price being relatively steady in $US terms. Interesting divergence me-thinks, buying opportunity here or a warning of things to come?

 

[explod]

explod, I'm not sure if you've answered this before, but I know you are long gold and have been for some years now, but are you holding any gold stocks?

Interested to know what some people here think about the falling gold stocks here (in particular our biggest NCM and LGL) and the relative stability of those on the US HUI/XAU indexes (like NEM, AU and KGC) and the gold price being relatively steady in $US terms. Interesting divergence me-thinks, buying opportunity here or a warning of things to come?

I hold only a small parcel of Oceana Gold (OGC) I have RNG in the stock tipping but that is only a fun thing. I trade other stocks based on t/a, mainly the energy sector, with time frames of only a week or two. It seems to me that most Gold Companies run on self interest with shareholders the last consideration.

My gold/silver position is very long term in physical. That also includes coins.

cheers explod

 

[amory]

Yes he is extreme to say the least but some contributors on his site I follow. Trader Dan Norcin seems to be in touch on the bullion trading floor. You just have to sift each for what you can pick up.

I like James Turk and the Aden Sisters on Kitco, they put out a free blurb each about once a month.

my opinion on Jimbo would be widely known by now ... I won't repeat it. suffice to say that there was a time when he instructed staff to only let him read the occasional email that was favorable ... judging by the disjointed senseless articles on his website he must have been on the verge of a nervous breakdown.

however, credit where credit is due. recently, he gave the dollar 123 days before total collapse ... now it seems he is still keeping count & I quote:

<< .... As a result of the above I see 81 days left for the US dollar.

The gold price has but one criteria and that is the US dollar. Armstrong and Alf are correct on the levels awaiting the gold price.

I know $1224 and $1650 are certain.....>>

which takes us to sometime in november. Jimbo, Jimbo ... this better be good!

 

[explod]

and the relative stability of those on the US HUI/XAU indexes (like NEM, AU and KGC) and the gold price being relatively steady in $US terms. Interesting divergence me-thinks, buying opportunity here or a warning of things to come?

Soirry, just realised I did not cover all your questions. I only follow ASX stocks but I have always tracjed the HUI index, it together with the silver price and the US dollar give good indications of moves within a day or so for the gold price.

At the moment HUI struggling a bit, US dollar only slightly down and silver languishing, so would be surpriesed to see much movement in gold this week. But am often wrong.

 

[explod]

US$ index falling significantly tonight, interesting that HUI climbed a bit last night with litle response from gold yet.

Could be interesting if index drops below support at aoubt 77.60, with markets a bit shakey a drop in the dollar as well could set up a new turn of events perhaps. A charachteristic the last year or so has been the greenback as a refuge.