Gold Price - Where is it heading?

explod · 10 August 2009

>Apocalypto< said:
Higher low explod???

All I can see on the daily chart is a lower high.... hmmmm, buddy it's best you stop looking at your charts upside down.

As a kid on the farm, Dad would say as we lined up a fence post, "that's near as dammit" and it would be, a good straight bit of fence at the end of the day.

That gold chart is near as dammit to a good pennant from your top to the bottom of October, roughly (nrsdammmnt) and she has to break one way or the other soon. And did you get a load of that US$ index chart, if that's nrsdmmt then the gold break may be up.

you say Apo..dmit and cr.p
.

roysolder · 10 August 2009

and well said explod,
more printing of money this week-cheap dunny paper anybody?

Tradesurfer · 10 August 2009

It is interesting that when EVERYONE (newsmedia) is saying there WILL BE inflation- does that mean that everyone can't be right?

As Explod mentioned (refering to trends)- just watch and pay attention to price trends.

Until gold breaks out above 1040 its below resistance. Although is forming a pretty large triangle on the weekly chart that was posted in a prior post. Remember-to calculate targets take the distance between the top and bottom at the mouth of a triangle and draw that up or down form a breakout/violation.

I will have to check out the shooting star on the GBP/USD tonight

Agentm · 10 August 2009

solomon · 10 August 2009

Hi Agentm,

Ever since dipping out of ADI a few months back I've missed your input. Nice to have you on the gold forum.

Are Goldman and the others like them lumped in with the large speculators or the commercials? I know where they should be, but they might very well be in the commercials.

This article http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/and-then-theres-thismonday-july-27-2009/19452 suggests that the bullion banks recently went even shorter.

I remember reading somewhere that Goldman and like have been counted as hedgers having gained some exception or other from the relevant regulator.

Wysiwyg · 10 August 2009

As has been noted the range of consolidation is getting tighter and will break one way or the other in the next few months. It will be interesting to see if this continuation pattern in an uptrend evolves into a breakout to new highs. Best case scenario for continuation would be the stock market tanking and a flight to gold.

All will be revealed in the ensuing months say what.

MRC & Co · 11 August 2009

Anyone else like the interest rate differential on the UST as opposed to the bund, the talk of QE in US being mopped up quicker than the ECB stealth QEP, or the fact EUR/USD is setting up for a technically perfect false break pattern......now add in the fact the USD was supressed by the recent 'risk trade' and is that a perfect storm or what for a long USD?

Also got another short S&P at 1001 as some type of a hedge.

Agentm, can't help on the oppie trade as I didn't put it on myself, it's with a team. But I think it may have been options on futs through IB if that sounds right........

Buckeroo · 11 August 2009

Interesting piece on gold ownership in the US.

Cheers

There’s a lot of Internet chatter these days about the possibility of the U.S. government seizing its citizens’ private gold holdings.

What are the chances?

Well, it’s always good to bear in mind that there is no telling what the government might do. It’s already doing things that were unthinkable just a few years ago. If President Obama believes there is political hay to be made from seizing your gold – or even if he sincerely thinks such a move would be “good for the country” – we’re sure he won’t hesitate to make the grab. After all, his favorite predecessor, Franklin Roosevelt, set the precedent.

Many Americans don’t even realize that private gold ownership was forbidden for forty years, but it was. The relevant edict is Presidential Executive Order 6102 of April 5, 1933, which begins:

Forbidding the Hoarding of Gold Coin, Gold Bullion and Gold Certificates By virtue of the authority vested in me by Section 5(b) of the Act of October 6, 1917, as amended by Section 2 of the Act of March 9, 1933, entitled

An Act to provide relief in the existing national emergency in banking, and for other purposes,in which amendatory Act Congress declared that a serious emergency exists,

I, Franklin D. Roosevelt, President of the United States of America, do declare that said national emergency still continues to exist and pursuant to said section to do hereby prohibit the hoarding of gold coin, gold bullion, and gold certificates within the continental United States by individuals, partnerships, associations and corporations …

Uncle Festivus · 12 August 2009

MRC & Co said:
Anyone else like the interest rate differential on the UST as opposed to the bund, the talk of QE in US being mopped up quicker than the ECB stealth QEP, or the fact EUR/USD is setting up for a technically perfect false break pattern......now add in the fact the USD was supressed by the recent 'risk trade' and is that a perfect storm or what for a long USD?

Also got another short S&P at 1001 as some type of a hedge.

Agentm, can't help on the oppie trade as I didn't put it on myself, it's with a team. But I think it may have been options on futs through IB if that sounds right........

Lipstick on a pig? The US is just better at hiding their tracks? I'm not sure what the implications are for the USD with a failed auction, but it won't be pretty, as in 10yrT's yields? There are a couple of things happening that may indicate that 'the scheme' being run by 'the club' is a little shaky?

First is the 'change the rules & definitions' part of who are primary dealers. Then, if you follow the money trail, you see that the Fed then buy's back a generous proportion of the bonds/T's they just auctioned (see OMO's and the usual denial of such practices by the insiders), creating the illusion that the auctions are well supported by overseas CB's. ($10Billion of these weekly auctions goes toward the weekly interest expense of US debt, or currently $500Billion per annum.)

Next, and the most telling, is the fall in volume on the NYSE over the last few days, not that it was anywhere near bull market levels to start with, having the futures manipulated by Goldman Sachs.

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- A sharp drop in U.S. stock market trading volume could signal a looming test of the year's lows or merely illustrate investor inactivity in a summer month, just ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy announcement Wednesday.
The diminished trade had overall volume on the New York Stock Exchange on Monday falling to just under 1.1 billion, down 25% from its three-week moving average.

Either way, short term the USD might put it's safe haven hat on again, no matter how illogical, so it doesn't look good for gold or gold equities, having failed to keep pace with the general market gains, and most likely will be eager participants in any general sell-off, as usual

Smoke & mirrors, the end game get's closer.

MRC & Co · 12 August 2009

But currency plays are all relative. Is the Eurozone or Japan in any better situation? And no matter how much growth currencies or countries gain focus, there are no currencies anywhere close to these 3 at the present time.

I would attribute lack of volume due to the summer months, coming into Fed and post the big figures and reactions end of last wk.

explod · 12 August 2009

MRC & Co said:
But currency plays are all relative. Is the Eurozone or Japan in any better situation? And no matter how much growth currencies or countries gain focus, there are no currencies anywhere close to these 3 at the present time.

I would attribute lack of volume due to the summer months, coming into Fed and post the big figures and reactions end of last wk.

And what about the big ponzi, the fed buying their own Tbonds. The little bit of cr.p between the western currencies will be seen as less than a ripple when it is found that few in the west can even service their debt, let alone pay.

Have you ever thought of reading economists that are not attached to banks, government, the media or vested interests.

MRC & Co · 12 August 2009

Made a post, but really can't be bothered getting into it as I don't have the time (or it's better spent elsewhere).

GL.

Naked shorts · 13 August 2009

Explod, I have attached a chart of the S&P500 and spot gold.

Can you provide a reason why gold would correlate so well with the S&P?

I thought Gold was supposed to go down when the S&P goes up :bonk:

Uncle Festivus · 13 August 2009

Naked shorts said:
Explod, I have attached a chart of the S&P500 and spot gold.

Can you provide a reason why gold would correlate so well with the S&P?

I thought Gold was supposed to go down when the S&P goes up :bonk:

Inflation, but in reality, stagflation.

Imports of goods and services rose 2.3% to $152.8 billion, the highest since January and the first increase since July 2008, but this mostly reflected inflation as import prices rose 3.2%. So-called real imports of goods, after adjusting for price changes, rose 0.1%, the Commerce Department reported.

More good news - let's buy!

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. posted a budget deficit of $180.6 billion in July, the Treasury Department reported Wednesday, pushing the cumulative deficit so far this year up to $1.26 trillion. Outlays were $332 billion in July, the Treasury said, up 26% from last year. Receipts were $151 billion in July, down from $215 billion in June and down 6% from a year ago

explod · 13 August 2009

MRC & Co said:
Made a post, but really can't be bothered getting into it as I don't have the time (or it's better spent elsewhere).

GL.

I am very sorry about my outburst last night. It was unwarrented and out of order.

However it is very frustrating to see the affect that Wall St crapola has. It has become over the top of late and even the sheeple of the US must recognise the penny dropping before long. Even on Kitko we see commentaries on how bad and rediculous the entire ponzie has become. Check out the latest from James Turk as an example on the stupendous debt of the US Government.

I will endeavour to post less and be more polite.

explod

oh and gold is bouncing around in a very tight range on that pennant, dollar falling again tonight. Interesting times

MRC & Co · 13 August 2009

explod said:
dollar falling again tonight. Interesting times

Yes those completely left field German and French GDP figures today caught the market by surprise.

This should really be a good gauge of what is already priced into both currency and equity markets.

explod · 13 August 2009

Naked shorts said:
Explod, I have attached a chart of the S&P500 and spot gold.

Can you provide a reason why gold would correlate so well with the S&P?

I thought Gold was supposed to go down when the S&P goes up :bonk:

I have never run gold against the S&P, the only thing that will have real impact on gold are currencies, pure and simple. Paper money printing presses dilute value, a no brainer. Gold may not go up much at all (he he), but nothing can dilute it.

CapnBirdseye · 13 August 2009

explod said:
I have never run gold against the S&P, the only thing that will have real impact on gold are currencies, pure and simple. Paper money printing presses dilute value, a no brainer. Gold may not go up much at all (he he), but nothing can dilute it.

Surely gold is being diluted the whole time with new production - the pace of which is increasing. Maybe the question is- Is gold diluted at a faster pace than paper currency?

Naked shorts · 13 August 2009

explod said:
Paper money printing presses dilute value, a no brainer. Gold may not go up much at all (he he), but nothing can dilute it.

Well if your trying to capture inflation, why do you think holding gold is better then shorting T-Notes/T-Bonds?

brty · 13 August 2009

I'm invested in gold to a minor degree in $A, so basically a losing strategy recently. My position has basically been worst case scenario everything falls to pieces type hedge.

However I'm thinking right now, Here we go here we go, here we go. I actually hope I'm wrong despite having the long position

brty

Gold Price - Where is it heading?

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roysolder

Tradesurfer

Agentm

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Wysiwyg

Everyone wants money

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MRC & Co

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Uncle Festivus

MRC & Co

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MRC & Co

Naked shorts

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Uncle Festivus

explod

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MRC & Co

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CapnBirdseye

Naked shorts

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