Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[>Apocalypto<]

a little more interesting news on the USD

(..) The euro-dollar's fairly range bound price action lately, in spite of important economic data, has some analysts thinking that the major trading strategy that has emerged in this crisis - what is good for the U.S. economy is bad for the U.S. dollar as traders seek riskier currencies - might be on the decline.

"I do think, at the margin, we're starting to see this whole safe-haven reverse relationship loosen," said Nick Bennenbroek, head of currency strategy at Wells Fargo & Co. in New York.

"The core of this report shows we're definitely seeing a slower pace of economic contraction," he said.

While the dollar is gaining currently with a flight to safety, "we are not far from the situation where good economic news for the U.S. could be good for its currency," said Bennenbroek. (..)

'Benny hill music'

 

[explod]

>Apocalypto<

I just spent the morning on kitco... what a hard sell that is a sick idea of a site. One of the most one sided hard sells I have ever seen.

Agree, Kitco is a very missleading site. And contrary to your main take Jon Nadler, the prime spokesman for the company (daily editorial heads the site) is bearish gold and supports the Wall Street and Federal Reserve's structure of the money (printed) on money ponzi scheme.

brty

$US dollar index down
30 year bonds down
S&P500 up
Gold up
oil up

Now you are just talking good old fashioned fundamentals and chart indicators, who takes notice of that any more.

Why The Dollar Will Get Stronger

by Mark Carlson

Continued jawboning, not one of the five arguments is supported by a fundamental fact, just the dribble of the ponzie builders.

Apo old pal, you one of the bullion bankers or a member of that so called Plunge Protection Team.

And back to the normal world, gold puts in another higher low this week.

Oh'' and before I go back to sleep, notice the good old US job numbers trick, much louder on Bloomberg this week, that "the numbers look like coming in very bad for this month, 4% increase" but you guessed it, came in about half that and Wall Street rallies on the good (actually bad) news again.

And with all these gurus saying gold is going to crash makes me think the contrarian that its maybe a good time to buy

 

[Beej]

And with all these gurus saying gold is going to crash makes me think the contrarian that its maybe a good time to buy

Hey if that's your conviction buy, buy away! Let us know if you actually do though, or whether perhaps you really have some niggling doubts about the likelihood of the "giant money ponzi scheme" of falling down anytime in our lifetimes.

Cheers,

Beej

 

[explod]

Hey if that's your conviction buy, buy away! Let us know if you actually do though, or whether perhaps you really have some niggling doubts about the likelihood of the "giant money ponzi scheme" of falling down anytime in our lifetimes.

Cheers,

Beej

Got all that I needed some years back and just happy to hold and see what comes.

Still by a few silver coins when I am in town though.

Are you properly authorised Beej, to tell me what to buy.

I have no doubts that my holdings will hold value. They have increased at about 15% a year, only 5% this last year so will have to review that some time......perhaps

Many other passive investors have lost in that period. Trading, well that;'s another matter, the bit I do keeps the pot going ok in the meantime. Had a great little trade on KML this last few weeks, posted it up but no one else got on from what I could see.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Continued jawboning, not one of the five arguments is supported by a fundamental fact, just the dribble of the ponzie builders.

Apo old pal, you one of the bullion bankers or a member of that so called Plunge Protection Team.

And back to the normal world, gold puts in another higher low this week.

Oh'' and before I go back to sleep, notice the good old US job numbers trick, much louder on Bloomberg this week, that "the numbers look like coming in very bad for this month, 4% increase" but you guessed it, came in about half that and Wall Street rallies on the good (actually bad) news again.

And with all these gurus saying gold is going to crash makes me think the contrarian that its maybe a good time to buy

you really make me laugh.

 

[Naked shorts]

your delusion and tunnel vision really makes me laugh.

Ya gotta have someone on the other side Apoc

 

[explod]

Hey if that's your conviction buy, buy away! Let us know if you actually do though, or whether perhaps you really have some niggling doubts about the likelihood of the "giant money ponzi scheme" of falling down anytime in our lifetimes.

Cheers,

Beej

Why do I bother, do you actually read, said I had my allocation, how can I buy more when I am already committed to the hilt. First real sign that its over will be ready to sell. Long way though, taxi driver's not talking about it yet

You's obviously slept through school.

Anyway good fun stirring you lot, keep it rolling

 

[explod]

Ya gotta have someone on the other side Apoc

Ya got that right. the whole lot of us ought to be put away for even reading this stuff.

 

[MRC & Co]

Well well well, we have seen the USD/equity correlation break down IMO.

Appeared firm when NFPs came out (this was bound to be THE BIGGEST data even in recent times with all other facets of the global economy 'recovering').

But then Euro took a nose dive........what happened after that? Something very very very insane to me. Euro went back near the high and S&P came off slightly...........why? Personally, I think stat-arb funds tried to re-establish the correlation.

Following I think global macro and event driven funds fed them to the wolves. You could see some clear panic in the order flow after this (probably stat-arbs realising their models were now farked and turning their positions). Which leads me to believe this correlation is here to stay for some time.

BUT, what did gold and oil do? They still don't know what to latch onto.

This IMHO, effectively destroys the 'flight to safety' idea, now that the market is pricing in a recovery of sorts, albeit maybe slow and bumpy, it's still obvious the authorities are going to get upto their old tricks and could keep this bubble from bursting to it's full extent for decades to come.

So, what is there left for gold? Only hyperinflation IMO, but with excess capacity still in place, velocity of money still showing no great signs of increasing, a move towards greater rates of savings and particularly, the view of CBs to reign in the excess liquidity quick when need be, really minimizes that threat IMO.

Result: I can't see why gold would pop the top anytime soon, but production commodities (energy and base metals) could see a 'growth story' bid? Perhaps a spread?

I've got a 6 month put with 800 strike on gold FWIW.

Just my opinion of course, but I can't see any positive for gold at this point. I think if your going for the inflation bid at the moment, your better doing so in Japan where deflation is already heavily priced in and the new Government has limited experience to say the least and some terrible fiscal prudence. Short JGBs further out on the curve......

 

[Uncle Festivus]

When is a free lunch not free - when it has to be paid for? Having dined sumptuously courtesy of Stimulis V1, the Fat Cats are now calling for Stimulis V2 to keep the party going. After all, it's only wafer thin......Capitalists at the fiscal trough of indulgence (Uncle Sam plays Mr Creosote)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MlfcF1I5e_g

The problem is that they can't repay the debt without raising taxes AND cutting services; tax receipts are already 'behind the curve'. Gold as an inflation hedge - there just isn't enough money in the system to re-inflate to the point of making inflation a problem, money velocity is still zero in the real economy, the big money shufflers preferring to front run the stock market with their new best buddy gifts in the form of loans from the Fed.

The only thing holding the USD together is the fear of collateral damage should it fail. Should the US government default on their debts then that is a possibility, after all, if they were a company they would be insolvent already. Congress just keeps raising the money printing limit to keep the charade going - the worlds greatest Ponzi scheme?

 

[GumbyLearner]

When is a free lunch not free - when it has to be paid for? Having dined sumptuously courtesy of Stimulis V1, the Fat Cats are now calling for Stimulis V2 to keep the party going. After all, it's only wafer thin......Capitalists at the fiscal trough of indulgence (Uncle Sam plays Mr Creosote)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MlfcF1I5e_g

The problem is that they can't repay the debt without raising taxes AND cutting services; tax receipts are already 'behind the curve'. Gold as an inflation hedge - there just isn't enough money in the system to re-inflate to the point of making inflation a problem, money velocity is still zero in the real economy, the big money shufflers preferring to front run the stock market with their new best buddy gifts in the form of loans from the Fed.

The only thing holding the USD together is the fear of collateral damage should it fail. Should the US government default on their debts then that is a possibility, after all, if they were a company they would be insolvent already. Congress just keeps raising the money printing limit to keep the charade going - the worlds greatest Ponzi scheme?

Big belly laugh

Great link Unc.

Your observations are also analogous to the scene in Brewsters Millions, where Richard Pryor donates a million bucks to the scientist with a remote control iceberg on his desk.



Or yesterdays announcement of Fannie Mae getting a third bailout

Saturday August 8, 2009
Fannie Mae draws on US support after loss

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2009/8/8/business/4478449&sec=business

NEW YORK: Fannie Mae, the largest provider of US home mortgage funding, on Thursday reported a US$14.8bil quarterly net loss that it said would force it to go to the US Treasury trough a third time for money to stay in business.

The company noted a “significant uncertainty” in its long-term financial health in reporting its eighth consecutive quarterly loss, which illustrates its struggle to make money in the face of rising defaults and pressure to do more to stabilise the housing market.

Fannie Mae and rival Freddie Mac have become more crucial to the country’s housing system since 2007 as the financial crisis sealed off other sources of loan funding.

Here's another great link

Bernanke's billions - TOO BIG TO FAIL, NOT TOO SMALL TO BEG

 

[explod]

For those jawboning the direction of the US$ index my take is that it all looks like down from here. But I am merely a trend follower.

 

[explod]

MRC & Co

I've got a 6 month put with 800 strike on gold FWIW.

You are indeed brave, only time will tell.

Will be an interesting week, Bloomberg.com particularly optimistic that the problems are over.

 

[Real1ty]

Well well well, we have seen the USD/equity correlation break down IMO.

It's too early to say that it has broken and we need confirmation first.

Having said that, i also get the feeling we maybe seeing the beginning of a $ rally and if so, there will be some brilliant opportunities for big profits to be made and it looks like you have backed your judgement early.

IF so, Gold will certainly weaken but i feel there will be more downside in Currencies and short term Oil, so that's where my shorting will be.

PS: Check out the shooting star on the GBPUSD weekly

 

[MRC & Co]

IF so, Gold will certainly weaken but i feel there will be more downside in Currencies and short term Oil, so that's where my shorting will be.

PS: Check out the shooting star on the GBPUSD weekly

Long USD is effectively short other currencies (just have to pick which ones).

My worry on an oil short, is it may get an Asian growth story bid.

Going to have a short equities encase the correlation does not break as a ratio spread. But will toss the later to the curb if the correlation is difinitive.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

And back to the normal world, gold puts in another higher low this week.

Higher low explod???

All I can see on the daily chart is a lower high.... hmmmm, buddy it's best you stop looking at your charts upside down.

 

[Sean K]

Higher low explod???

All I can see on the daily chart is a lower high.... hmmmm, buddy it's best you stop looking at your charts upside down.

Well, it depends where you start the line doesn't it.

 

[Ageo]

I've got a 6 month put with 800 strike on gold FWIW.

Options on commodoties? please do explain more?

Platform? and any other info such as what commodities etc.....

I cannot find anywhere on how to trade coms over options.


thanks

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Well, it depends where you start the line doesn't it.

that's true, I am just having some fun with Explod.

 

[Sean K]

that's true, I am just having some fun with Explod.

Ah, sorry. I missed the irony.