Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[Ageo]

As you are well aware Ageo, gold bars are very scarce. As I have said many times, the AU dollar will make little difference when gold US holds above 1000, you will have a mad scramble for it and that sentiment will do the rest.

It can be seen, you can hold it in your hand and has tangible value. A paper note can become nothing.

Very true, what will happen is the spreads between the spot AU (and the bar gold itself) will be massive to reflect the true value of the gold.

anywayz i know 1 thing and that is north is where it is heading long term.

The weekend that just passed i was in a rural town to purchase scrap (gold) and it was interesting to see how many people came in to sell their old jewellery because how tough times were getting them. Until you see real market data its hard to determine what is and will happen in the future.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Very true, what will happen is the spreads between the spot AU (and the bar gold itself) will be massive to reflect the true value of the gold.

anywayz i know 1 thing and that is north is where it is heading long term.

The weekend that just passed i was in a rural town to purchase scrap (gold) and it was interesting to see how many people came in to sell their old jewellery because how tough times were getting them. Until you see real market data its hard to determine what is and will happen in the future.

Confirmation bias!!

You are saying extra supply will increase price??

LOL

 

[Uncle Festivus]

It looks like the gold doubters are the ones who have to submit the answers - if all is green shoots and bamboo sprouts then why is gold still $940, and not ZERO?

The conversations around the globe in hushed polite company would be on how to extricate themselves from trade in $USD's? The problems of the US have become the problems of the world just by the fact that they are the default world currency, and any weakness results in them (foreigners) paying more for their raw materials, irrespective of supply/demand fundamentals, (if that even exist's anymore without some sort of fiddling from speculators like Goldman distorting the markets).

So if we assume a 1:1 negative corellation with the USD/AUD then we would expect the AUD to appreciate, yet that will make our commodities increasingly expensive and precipitate another round of demand destruction from a point of already subdued natural price discovery based on intrinsic supply & demand, which in China's case is being distorted by stimulus and money supply increases of 25% per month to appear to sustain a miraculous rate of GDP growth. In short, US gold up, AU gold down initially then up?

So not sure if it's inflation anymore, rather the survival of the US currency itself, even though the gold price id behaving as though the is going to be some sort of super inflationary boom soon? I don't think the amount of money being put back into the system has come anywhere near the amount so far lost, so if anything, continuing deflation, like recent figures from the EU suggest? There's just not enough money circulating in the right area's for this to be the start of a sustained economic recovery based on, yet again, massive debt!

 

[Ageo]

Confirmation bias!!

You are saying extra supply will increase price??

LOL

extra supply??? lol a few kilo's isnt gonna change much to the supply and demand figures TH

Im just stating people are doing it tough and scraping in whatever they have (gold a big 1) but that doesnt account for the short supply in bullion.

 

[lasty]

"There's just not enough money circulating in the right area's for this to be the start of a sustained economic recovery based on, yet again, massive debt!"

If the massive debt is in US dollars and currencies are strengthening against it then that massive debt value starts to shrink for everyone else bar the US.
As the US dollar declines their chances of inflation rises.

Interesting times and Gold is where them US dollars are heading.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

in the scheme of things a dirt cheap USD can only be a good thing for the usa, get some blood pumping though their export veins and help that deficit cancer they have growing at a incredible pace.

I still see gold euro and aud higher to usd.....for the time being

 

[explod]

I smell it, feel it: time to brush the dust off this thread Madarms and Gents.

The lows continue to rise higher and any dip is short lived by eager buyers, the bears are on the run.

China overtly using foreign reserves to buy copper, gold and into good offshore businesses. Gold fabricators not taking orders because they cannot fill those allready on the books.

The US dollar index about to complete a head and shoulders down to .72 in the next few weeks IMO

The time is usually a low one for gold but it looks like it will be rising into the next season.

Ill juz stop for nuther red.

cheers

 

[Agentm]

Gold Sector Trading Conclusion:

It feels as though we are on the verge of a big gold rally. This is if the US financial lords run out of money to short bullion or finally run out of gold to sell. Either way; once gold starts to running I don’t thing there will be much looking back until the $1200-$1500 level.



Gold stocks are now starting to show signs of life and when that happens in conjunction with the monthly, weekly and daily charts are forming bullish breakouts, look for some Golden Rockets which are junior stocks which have good cash flow and a solid management team behind it.



We continue to wait with our finger on the buy button for gold as prices drift sideways on the weekly chart. With everyone so bullish on gold I have to wonder if we are about to get a sharp correction hence the reason I wait for a low risk setup.

 

[explod]

We continue to wait with our finger on the buy button for gold as prices drift sideways on the weekly chart. With everyone so bullish on gold I have to wonder if we are about to get a sharp correction hence the reason I wait for a low risk setup.

A very good point to keep in mind Agentum, may be just on the strength of our crapola they will dump big time tonight.

Intersting times, but I believe the fundamentals are begining to speak.

 

[Gundini]

Gold Sector Trading Conclusion:

We continue to wait with our finger on the buy button for gold as prices drift sideways on the weekly chart. With everyone so bullish on gold I have to wonder if we are about to get a sharp correction hence the reason I wait for a low risk setup.

I would love a correction in Gold as I only have 20% of the Gold I would like to hold. One third NCM and two thirds ETF. Both have been giving me grief, but EFT decline has matched up with NCM rise from 29's so square for now.

Happy with this position at the minute, and any correction is short lived imo.

 

[Paul Ellis]

there was a period back in May when I thought Gold was a win-win. When everyone got nervous and the market tanked, people would buy into Gold as a safe haven. Then when the market bounced, people started talking about hyperinflation and Gold jumped as an inflation hedge.

I can't help but think it is on its way down unless some major event occurs - too much money on the sidelines to go into beaten down equities ....

 

[Ageo]

I would love a correction in Gold as I only have 20% of the Gold I would like to hold. One third NCM and two thirds ETF. Both have been giving me grief, but EFT decline has matched up with NCM rise from 29's so square for now.

Happy with this position at the minute, and any correction is short lived imo.

Its still a very good time to top up, these prices are considered low in the market and spreads are at decent levels.

 

[lucifuge]

Its still a very good time to top up, these prices are considered low in the market and spreads are at decent levels.

I feel the same, and if I had the dough I would!

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Its still a very good time to top up, these prices are considered low in the market and spreads are at decent levels.

It's always good to have a plan and believe in some thing.

There's no sure thing in the market and a trader or investor should never have tunnel vision.

As posted in the euro thread the eur/usd is still in a bullish situation ATM but it's at no 100% yet.

Gold is still on a trend but it's also developing a range that could be a distribution top.

This has allot of hallmarks to the 07 pattern but till confirmed it is what it is.

cheers,

 

[Ageo]

There's no sure thing in the market and a trader or investor should never have tunnel vision.

Apoc - of course there is no sure thing but i know anything under 1100AU gold is a bargain in the physical world. Once prices go over 1300AU refiners increase the spread to hedge against volatility.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Apoc - of course there is no sure thing but i know anything under 1100AU gold is a bargain in the physical world. Once prices go over 1300AU refiners increase the spread to hedge against volatility.

not trying to rain on any parades mate.

Just want to educe level thinking at this point in time.

between you and me, I am also leaning to the bullish side.

 

[trading_rookie]

Anyone bought or interested in the recent floats of Gold explorers out there? I note that Norsemen Gold (NGX) opened at 45c and is now trading somewhere around 78c.

Too late to jump in on Triton Gold which from all reports is waay over-subscribed....any others out there worth considering?

Re: the Gold miners, would the quality and quantity coming from WA be far superior than anywhere else in the country? Take LuckNow Gold Limited, they got a prospectus out and more or less jumping on the IPO bandwagon...but I just can't seem to be excited by a company exploring in NSW. I am wrong?

 

[Trembling Hand]

Bit quiet in here recently. Must be time to stir the bugs,

Interesting. Equities, Oil, Commodity currencies all making new year highs. conspicuous by its absence in the new highs list was...... GOLD. Now that we are due for a pull back of sorts doesn't bode well for that triangle thingy on the POG.

Boy oh boy she's an unrewarding Mistress this gold game. :

But ya never know, maybe next week.

 

[Beej]

Bit quiet in here recently. Must be time to stir the bugs,

Interesting. Equities, Oil, Commodity currencies all making new year highs. conspicuous by its absence in the new highs list was...... GOLD. Now that we are due for a pull back of sorts doesn't bode well for that triangle thingy on the POG.

Boy oh boy she's an unrewarding Mistress this gold game. :

But ya never know, maybe next week.

Not mention that if you track the price in $AU it looks even worse......

Beej

 

[Sean K]

Now that we are due for a pull back of sorts doesn't bode well for that triangle thingy on the POG.

Someone was calling a huge inverse H&S thingy somewhere, but I thought they were just reversal patterns. The neckline for the only huge H&S thingy I see is actually at it's peaks...