Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[explod]

Ah he he

He He He Ho

They got a straight line on the gold price the last few weeks and as usual push it down before trader4s are awake on a Mundy and it looks like a real blood bath. Getting very desperate now, must be getting close to some real pressure on the shorts.

News out of US is that China thinking about a new reserve currency. News out of Asia that China will act on a new reserve currency at the next G8. But gold will probably be held down till the tanks get the true message, they are such great Godbotherers and good sheep we may have some time to wait yet.

On the technicals,.... the bottom uptrend appears intact at US$920, long term the bottom uptrend support is 800.

So maybe need to take another few weeks off.

The current flag formation could go another 4 months before a breakout one way or another has to occur.

 

[Ageo]

September/October should see some big moves as Christmas is closer and the jewellery industry demand spikes around the globe. This is my experience i have found over the last few yrs.

 

[refined silver]

Korean Central Bank about to start buying gold for first time in 11 years.

The trickle will become a flood.

Bank of Korea to Buy Gold for First Time in 11 Years

From Dong-A Ilbo (East Asia Daily)
Seoul, South Korea
Saturday, July 4, 2009

The Bank of Korea has not purchased gold for 11 years but is expected to go on a gold buying spree, as the world’s central banks have bought the commodity since the global economic erupted in September last year.

A Bank of Korea official said yesterday, “The bank has begun to set up a plan to manage foreign exchange reserves for next year. It has also closely watched central banks in other nations and trends in the global gold market. Given the changing global financial environment, the bank’s management plan is critical.”

According to experts, the comment implies that the bank plans to buy gold soon. Korea has the world’s sixth most foreign exchange reserves but ranks just 56th in gold holdings.

China, which has the world’s largest foreign exchange reserves, has secretly bought 454 tons of gold over the past six years. This has intensified global competition to obtain more gold.

http://english.donga.com/srv/service.php3?biid=2009070411578

 

[wayneL]

September/October should see some big moves as Christmas is closer and the jewellery industry demand spikes around the globe. This is my experience i have found over the last few yrs.

Seasonal charts agree:

 

[Ageo]

Seasonal charts agree:

Thanks for posting that chart wayne. Its funny we have an order in Italy to come through and they`re pushing it as in August all the factories shut down for the whole month.

Based on previous buying spree's i think the basis of AU gold should be around $1500 by the end of the year. The only thing i see going against it is a really strong AUD over the USD which will counter any strong moves in the gold price.

Only time will tell

 

[moXJO]

Govt intervention to pop what’s left?

http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=5804EBD8-1871-E587-E142755673D639DF

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Depending on how much value you put on MACD, there maybe some sort of turning point for gold soon, even outperforming gold equities? Note these are weekly data too....

 

[explod]

Depending on how much value you put on MACD, there maybe some sort of turning point for gold soon, even outperforming gold equities? Note these are weekly data too....

Maybe, but as in the collapse of all the great empires it will be the value, but for now the belief in the US dollar. Its all about currency, but first hurdle is sentiment. The Dow appears poised for the next downward path, that will give strenth to the dollar, but when they both begin to fall in tandem gold will then be the only value in town.

We are not there yet, but we called it here on ASF

 

[Ageo]

.

We are not there yet, but we called it here on ASF

yep and so have millions of others

but i know we said it 1st!

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Maybe, but as in the collapse of all the great empires it will be the value, but for now the belief in the US dollar. Its all about currency, but first hurdle is sentiment. The Dow appears poised for the next downward path, that will give strenth to the dollar, but when they both begin to fall in tandem gold will then be the only value in town.

We are not there yet, but we called it here on ASF

Right on Q, gold tanks $20!! Still the USD counter trade for now. Longer timeframe still intact? Short AUD/USD making up for it .

 

[Ageo]

Right on Q, gold tanks $20!! Still the USD counter trade for now. Longer timeframe still intact? Short AUD/USD making up for it .

Yeh gold is down but so is the AUD so in reality the AU gold price hasnt moved. (well down a couple of dollars).

 

[MRC & Co]

Seasonal charts agree:

Would seasonal movements already (at least to some extent) be factored into the forward futures contracts?

 

[wayneL]

Would seasonal movements already (at least to some extent) be factored into the forward futures contracts?

No. That's not how forward contracts work. Have a look at the GC strip:

http://www2.barchart.com/dfutpage.asp?sym=GC&code=BSTK&section=metals

Generally in a contract like gold, there is a natural contango because of carrying costs. But if you look at contracts up till December, there is even some backwardation between successive contracts at the moment.

If someone tried to price in the seasonal tendency in say the October contract, the arbitrageurs would be all over it like a rash, shorting the October and buying spot.

And remember a seasonal tendency is just that... a tendency. Prices can run against the seasonal tendency too.

 

[MRC & Co]

Generally in a contract like gold, there is a natural contango because of carrying costs. But if you look at contracts up till December, there is even some backwardation between successive contracts at the moment.

If someone tried to price in the seasonal tendency in say the October contract, the arbitrageurs would be all over it like a rash, shorting the October and buying spot.

And remember a seasonal tendency is just that... a tendency. Prices can run against the seasonal tendency too.

Yep, that's what I figured, but just wanted to get it straight.

Thx.

 

[electronicmaster]

Mike Maloney and Rich Dad's Robert Kiyosaki talks about historic inflation adjustment in the Gold price and also talks about the potential inflation adjusted Gold price that is yet to match this years total Money supply.



China plans to buy $80 billion worth of gold" GATA interview and GATA board members gives an update on gold & market manipulation





Got Silver?

 

[explod]

Yep Kyosaki has been bullish on gold for two years now, his update is on the money but few actually can believe it.

Just glad that I do and hold gold.

 

[electronicmaster]

China plans to buy $80 billion worth of gold" GATA interview and GATA board members gives an update on gold & market manipulation



Got Silver?

Anyone think that GATA is trying to hard to get Gold and Silver to default? I mean... Is China just Opening their mouth again just to upset the USA?

I suspect that China won't spend $80 Billion on Gold at all. No way.

 

[explod]

Very quiet on the gold front, the following from Trader Dan...

Crude oil and the Dollar are the two markets that gold is keying off of right now so its fortunes are linked directly to both. Crude oil moving higher causes the hedge fund algorithms to shoot buy orders to the gold pit as the inflation play then comes back into existence with commodities across the board generally moving higher.

Strangely enough, the mining shares were not particularly impressive even though they moved up but they did seem to be reluctant to follow gold higher for a while this morning. Again, I am not sure what to make of this one day price action because it is just more of the same choppiness and inability to sustain any trends in one direction or the other.

Technically, the move above $920 in gold is friendly as it serves to reinforce the support level that has been emerging just above the $900 level. Gold will still need to clear $950 to generate any real upside excitement. Before it can do that it will first need a close above $940. Downside support remains intact near today’s low followed by strong support near the $880 level.

The major moving averages in gold are all above today’s session high so gold has some definite work to do before one can get all that excited about today’s gains however the RSI’s sideways trend is still intact meaning that the consolidation pattern continues with its slight upward bias.

...

Source: Mineset

 

[MRC & Co]

Explod, earnings season right now is the important factor at the forefront.

A rising risk appetite last night, led equities to pull oil higher and send the USD down.

 

[explod]

Explod, earnings season right now is the important factor at the forefront.

A rising risk appetite last night, led equities to pull oil higher and send the USD down.

A breach of .795 on the US$ index may light up the fuse.

On bad news the Dow rose this morning, this often precedes the next drop which would give temporary support to the US dollar.

This week will be interesting I think, for a change