Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[Uncle Festivus]

Irony - gold bugs now want the economic stimulis plans to be spectacularly succesfull to stoke the inflation flame thrower? Dow goes up - gold goes up.

 

[MRC & Co]

Irony - gold bugs now want the economic stimulis plans to be spectacularly succesfull to stoke the inflation flame thrower? Dow goes up - gold goes up.

lol, it is funny.

Think the PPI last night in the US was a nice positive for gold over-night.

 

[explod]

A breach of .795 on the US$ index may light up the fuse.

The $ index doing its bit tonight, down to 79.46, silver leading and gold firming which is a bullish sign.

 

[GumbyLearner]

Berlusconi - Stifling the "Free market" merchant

Just because my country is in ridiculous debt, there must be a way to make money out of that!

http://www.iii.co.uk/news/?type=afxnews&articleid=7423636&subject=markets&action=article

ROME/FRANKFURT, July 15 (Reuters) - Italy said it was considering changes to a proposal to tax the gold reserves of the Bank of Italy after the European Central Bank said on Wednesday the law risked breaching central bank independence.


Italy separately proposed cutting its planned capital gains tax rate on gold transactions to 1 percent from 6 percent, but it was not immediately clear if this was in response to the ECB's criticism.

In a legal opinion published on its Web site, the ECB said the draft law -- taxing capital gains on gold reserves due to rising market prices -- would weaken the Italian central bank's finances and mean it might not be able to carry out its tasks.

The legislation, designed to shore up Italy's wide public deficit this year, risked violating a ban on using central bank resources to finance the public sector, the ECB said.

"The draft article needs to be reconsidered to address the concerns expressed in this opinion, relating in particular to central bank independence and the prohibition on monetary financing," the ECB said in a strongly-worded opinion.

"The ECB expects to be consulted on any revised draft legislative provisions in this matter."

Italy's cabinet on June 26 gave initial approval to a package of legal measures to tackle a shortfall in public finances caused by the economic slowdown. Italy's government expects its deficit to top 5 percent of GDP this year, far in excess of Brussels' 3 percent ceiling.

The Banca d'Italia is the fourth-largest holder of gold in the world, with reserves of 2,452 tonnes, according to the World Gold Council. Its reserves are worth around $73 billion at current prices, according to Reuters calculations.

In a statement on Wednesday, Italy's finance ministry said the ECB's opinion was part of an ongoing exchange of information and steps would be taken to ensure the measures did not affect the Bank of Italy's independence.
"We expect to find a solution through amendments (to the law)," the statement said.

Haha what a statesman!

 

[explod]

Extract from Trader Dan, Mineset, this morning.

The HUI put in one of those nice bullish formations on its daily price charts but still has much work to do technically to convincingly assert the bullish case. Not until it gets a close above 360 can it be said that the gold stocks are out of the bear woods just yet. I want to point out however that it did get back above that 100 day moving average which means that the shorts are having great difficulty pushing prices lower as value buyers seem to be emerging.

I suspect that what we are seeing in gold and by inverse, the Dollar’s action, is increasing concern about the pace of reckless spending by the US government. Chatter about surtaxes on millionaires to pay for a government boondoggle called health care reform and an attempt to push a cap and tax program upon an economy that is reeling from a credit meltdown can hardly be said to be the thing that makes for balanced budgets and enhanced tax revenues. Corporate tax revenues have plunged an astonishing 57% and yet more punitive business measures seem to be in store. My view is that individual tax rates are going to reach 50% even as capital gains taxes are raised to 20%. There is no end in sight to the transfer of private wealth to the government and none of this is business friendly in the long term. Heaven help the US Dollar…..and by consequence, the future for our children and grandchildren.

Could the last para apply to Australia in the future?

 

[Sean K]

I think gold equities are only moving with the market at the moment. Give or take. POG probably only moved up in line with metals the past couple of days.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Surprised this thread is so quiet considering the break in POG, POO

explod must be down at Crown counting random events.

 

[explod]

Surprised this thread is so quiet considering the break in POG, POO

explod must be down at Crown counting random events.

And just back after a good day. Royboy can testify as I sent him a pm this morning. Suppose you hoped I'd gone away.

Yes bullish for a Monday. US$ index at a critical support level, maybe the jawboning on WS and B,berg not working this time after the garbage last week.

We shall see.

Nice that you care t/h cheers explod

 

[explod]

Surprised this thread is so quiet considering the break in POG, POO

explod must be down at Crown counting random events.

And just back after a good day. Royboy can testify as I sent him a pm this morning. Suppose you hoped I'd gone away.

Yes bullish for a Monday. US$ index at a critical support level, maybe the jawboning on WS and B,berg not working this time after the garbage last week.

We shall see.

Nice that you care t/h cheers explod

 

[roysolder]

hey explod,
gee i thought you had been quiet with gold on the move.btw i did,nt get your pm my ol mate and hoped you had,nt lept from wall st sign and broken the bren gun.
regards royboy :}

 

[explod]

Gold price up like this on a Monday looks interesting for the bugs. Us dollar breaking resistance.

sorry chart did not post but at US$952.50 we are up $15 on the day.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Gold price up like this on a Monday looks interesting for the bugs. Us dollar breaking resistance.

sorry chart did not post but at US$952.50 we are up $15 on the day.

Yep another 10% or so and it will have caught up with equities for the last coupla weeks :

 

[explod]

Yep another 10% or so and it will have caught up with equities for the last coupla weeks :

Yep, but look for a weekly close above US$1,030 and it will pass equities (cept gold stocks) like a rocket. A big audience now looking for something solid will climb on,, IMHO

May be a bit off that yet but it is grinding towards it.

Of course from a day traders perspective your outlook is correct.

 

[MRC & Co]

Yep, but look for a weekly close above US$1,030 and it will pass equities (cept gold stocks) like a rocket. A big audience now looking for something solid will climb on,, IMHO

May be a bit off that yet but it is grinding towards it.

Of course from a day traders perspective your outlook is correct.

Yes, this gold resilience is very interesting.

I closed shorts at 920s.

The USD index looks very weak now. With the risk appetite back.

But what happens if USD index does break below it's support and runs fast (despite Geithner trying his best to add strength too it)? I don't doubt gold will run up and commodities may get a boost? But what about equities and bonds? We may see a real break-down of the correlations should this play out.

All would really really fark the US economy and perhaps we could see the decoupling from the Asian driven growth.

But all seems a bit too obvious.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Of course from a day traders perspective your outlook is correct.

just stirring

Yes, this gold resilience is very interesting.

I closed shorts at 920s.

The USD index looks very weak now. With the risk appetite back.

But what happens if USD index does break below it's support and runs fast (despite Geithner trying his best to add strength too it)? I don't doubt gold will run up and commodities may get a boost? But what about equities and bonds? We may see a real break-down of the correlations should this play out.

All would really really fark the US economy and perhaps we could see the decoupling from the Asian driven growth.

But all seems a bit too obvious.

yep its a simple equation at the moment. Just long anything against the USD, let it run, take some profit, wait, repeat.

 

[explod]

MRC & Co

but all seems a bit too obvious.

To us here in Aus., maybe, but when one considers the b/s in the financial press over there, that the value they have is mostly hot air, then following the bleeding obvious could be a good direction.

Anyway good to have it back on our radar.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Yes, this gold resilience is very interesting.

I closed shorts at 920s.

The USD index looks very weak now. With the risk appetite back.

But what happens if USD index does break below it's support and runs fast (despite Geithner trying his best to add strength too it)? I don't doubt gold will run up and commodities may get a boost? But what about equities and bonds? We may see a real break-down of the correlations should this play out.

All would really really fark the US economy and perhaps we could see the decoupling from the Asian driven growth.

But all seems a bit too obvious.

Idea I have on euro ATM

 

[explod]

The six month chart now shows a clear long pennant and a break up or down has to occur in the next few weeks. The action of the US$ index if it continues to weaken would indicate an upside break may see the next test of the $US1000

Copper at all time high levels again and oil on the move up would support this contention. IMHO

cheers explod

 

[Ageo]

The AUD/USD is not helping thow it seems like any gains from the POG is getting wiped from it.

Its funny the AU gold price has been sitting in a range from 1150-1180 for quite some time now.

$1500 AU gold price by the yrs end is what most refiners are expecting to be the base price.

lets wait and see

 

[explod]

The AUD/USD is not helping thow it seems like any gains from the POG is getting wiped from it.

Its funny the AU gold price has been sitting in a range from 1150-1180 for quite some time now.

$1500 AU gold price by the yrs end is what most refiners are expecting to be the base price.

lets wait and see

As you are well aware Ageo, gold bars are very scarce. As I have said many times, the AU dollar will make little difference when gold US holds above 1000, you will have a mad scramble for it and that sentiment will do the rest.

It can be seen, you can hold it in your hand and has tangible value. A paper note can become nothing.