Gold Price - Where is it heading?

sunshineboy said:

I am sure this year gold will hit $1500 an ounce. Do your research and find it out just like last year.

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You're sure? Well, you've all heard it here first folks, straight from the horses mouth.

I find it somewhat unusual sunshine, what with you being an expert and all - that you have another thread going at the moment, asking why the USD is getting weaker? Especially, since, ironically, in the past 2-3 days it's been getting stronger ...

Nyden said:

You're sure? Well, you've all heard it here first folks, straight from the horses mouth.

I find it somewhat unusual sunshine, what with you being an expert and all - that you have another thread going at the moment, asking why the USD is getting weaker? Especially, since, ironically, in the past 2-3 days it's been getting stronger ...

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Yep the sheeple are sh.t..ng themselves and converting to the mighty US of A dollar. Same as last time.

I also reckon when the truth hits the 1500 gold will occur. The sequence of steps are becoming clearer IMHO, and dont' need to repeat, you've heard them on this space before.

sunshineboy said:

I am sure this year gold will hit $1500 an ounce. Do your research and find it out just like last year.

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Sounds good to me! Are you talking USD or AUD, and can you give me an idea of why you think his will eventuate?

Or are you spinning our wheels?

Trembling Hand said:

Yes and have you considered that it could be a positive - one day. Just like Japan the second biggest economy going nowhere for two decades.

It created the biggest boom in the last 30 years for investors, the carry trade.

Are we about to get the next carry trade to push the next bubble/bull?

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One day Peter Costello will be PM, maybe a lot can happen in the meantime, especially for intra-second nothing-to-something traders

It was OK while it was just Japan going no where, but now we could have all major economies going no where for a few years at least while they work out that creating debt to stimulate consumption by already indebted consumers is useless.

The carry trade wouldn't have been so well supported if it didn't have somewhere to park those funds, and I content that that played probably the biggest part in all of the global bubbles that have sprung up over those years, even the great China boom. Only this time any carry trade in any currency would be like pushing on a peice of spaghetti because all central banks will be actively trying to inflate their money supplies at the same time, instead of as previously Japan was the sole supplier of excess credit to the world?

The Yen CT was supported by the fact that the holding of such was only temporary while looking to invest into something else with better returns, it was not neccessarily because Yen was intrinsically safer than whatever else. A USD carry trade would look to invest into ????? Hard tangibles like commodities, gold.....

Carry trades rely on relative yield differentials, so with nearly all major currencies 'supported' by zero bound CB rates, that spread is effectively zero. The next game is into hard physicals to preserve 'wealth' as currencies undergo trasparent QE. The new carry trade for USD's could be into gold, but a carry trade implies that at some stage the trade will be unwound back into the original instrument, but if the original instrument get's trashed in the meantime, what happens then?

At the moment the paradigm is still to pile into the 'safe haven' of USD's at any sign of risk aversion, but there will come a time when even that strategy will be seriously questioned, although it is still in the interests of all concerned that the show continues on it's precarios way for the Ponzi scheme to continue? At least that's what China is hoping for.

Short everything, even gold stocks

sunshineboy said:

I am sure this year gold will hit $1500 an ounce. Do your research and find it out just like last year.

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My calcs come out to precisely $3423 & 45 cents, give or take $3000 Whilever GS & MS are still in control it won't get back above $1k any time soon? The proviso is that relative to anything else gold will appreciate.

Uncle Festivus said:

The carry trade wouldn't have been so well supported if it didn't have somewhere to park those funds, and I content that that played probably the biggest part in all of the global bubbles that have sprung up over those years, even the great China boom.

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Yes yes fully agree. But its always amuses me that the only thing the green back can do is completely collapse. The only thing the world can do is fall apart. The only thing that can come from CB games is the end of the world.

You may be right just history isn't on your side.

Interesting times

Trembling Hand said:

Yes yes fully agree. But its always amuses me that the only thing the green back can do is completely collapse. The only thing the world can do is fall apart. The only thing that can come from CB games is the end of the world.

You may be right just history isn't on your side.

Interesting times

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Actually history is on my side - all empires eventually collapse under the weight of debt (usually from wars?), only the time frame is evermore condensed due to technology improving information flow.

What is your strategy these days TH? Short & long term ie more than a few minutes

Uncle Festivus said:

Actually history is on my side - all empires eventually collapse under the weight of debt (usually from wars?), only the time frame is evermore condensed due to technology improving information flow.

What is your strategy these days TH? Short & long term ie more than a few minutes

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Yes and from war the US makes a great deal as their manufacturing base is in that area. But have they in that facit also bitten off more than they can chew??

Hui up strong the last two days, is gold perhaps going to hold and rise from here??. Dollar up again too.

Going back to Kennas comment:

"Any way out of it UF?

How can the US get out of such debt and still keep the currency alive?"

...inflation and dollar/pound devaluation

Assuming that the same factors don't affect every other nation - in which case we will all be on a par.

P.S. I don't think we're headed for the end of the world...yet

surfziggy said:

P.S. I don't think we're headed for the end of the world...yet

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Phew,
I have a few things planned for this weekend and it would be a shame to have them spoiled

Would it be too much trouble to ask you to let me know when you do think it is coming, as i can then shift a few things around.

Thanks in advance

Are you mistaking me for http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nostradamus ?

GOLD

Hi all,

What is the concensus (or otherwise) on gold, (real gold bars in the bank fault or under the bed).
Lots of opinions by "experts" that it will increase considerably once inflation sets in. (Which may happen due to the increase in money supply).
At present, it wanders about between $750 and $1000 US per once. Some predict it will increase to $2000.

Best regards
GN

Just thinking, and maybe completely incorrectly and unrealistically, if the USD is replaced as the world currency, as China is arguing, then will gold then be priced in that currency, whatever it is. If so, how will this effect the price of gold? Maybe a bit out of left field.

kennas said:

Just thinking, and maybe completely incorrectly and unrealistically, if the USD is replaced as the world currency, as China is arguing, then will gold then be priced in that currency, whatever it is. If so, how will this effect the price of gold? Maybe a bit out of left field.

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The USD won't be replaced until it is sold far enough down to be no longer functioning as the world reserve currency. Maybe .52USDX. By then gold will be much much higher.

A new world currency would probably need some gold backing as every other world currency has had in the past - Portugese real`1600s, GB pound (1700s-1930s) and USD in 1944 at Bretton Woods when it became world reserve currency.

refined silver said:

The USD won't be replaced until it is sold far enough down to be no longer functioning as the world reserve currency. Maybe .52USDX. By then gold will be much much higher.

A new world currency would probably need some gold backing as every other world currency has had in the past - Portugese real`1600s, GB pound (1700s-1930s) and USD in 1944 at Bretton Woods when it became world reserve currency.

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And the US will be wanting it to contract as much as possible as that will decrease the actual value of their world debts. And debts will come to considerable attention in the next few week, California is now absolutely insolvent now and big isssues thier have to be delt with in the next week or so. China is particularly concerned of late at their massive holdings of US treasuries. My sources indicate that they are accumulating gold, with treasuries, in any way they can without pushing the price up too much. Wonder if they were the buyer of the IMF 400 tonnes??

The Asis Times (online) is well worth a scan every few days, some good links to chinese govt' thinking and actions. Very anti US., but maybe for good reason eh.

Notice US dollar down a fair bit overnight but gold held to sideways. Wonder at how long this will continue. Maybe interesting next week. But of course, as T/H will testify, I say that nearly every week.

cheers explod.

Will be away for the next week so keep up the good work you bugs, BUGS, pests?? yes yes yes yes no not till tomorrow

refined silver said:

The USD won't be replaced until it is sold far enough down to be no longer functioning as the world reserve currency. Maybe .52USDX. By then gold will be much much higher.

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And then it crashes?

refined silver said:

The USD won't be replaced until it is sold far enough down to be no longer functioning as the world reserve currency. Maybe .52USDX.

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See I disagree.

I think a slow gradual decline of the USD will be beneficial to the US economy.

I think the danger is a run on the USD and US Treasuries and this is the critical point all the gold bugs are constantly looking for.

However, with the recent positive bond auctions, I don't think the time is going to be anytime soon now.

MRC & Co said:

See I disagree.

I think a slow gradual decline of the USD will be beneficial to the US economy.

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That will be the best thing for everyone won't it? An orderly exit from USD into the ANZAC dollar? Perhaps the ZAC can actually made of pure gold to satisfy the bugs.

MRC & Co said:

I think the danger is a run on the USD and US Treasuries and this is the critical point all the gold bugs are constantly looking for.

However, with the recent positive bond auctions, I don't think the time is going to be anytime soon now.

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You would buy US dollars?? Straight from the printing press?

California's budgetary, economic and political problems Thursday landed the Golden State's credit a ratings downgrade accompanied by a warning that more could follow.
Fitch Ratings, which had issued such a warning last month, followed through by slimming the general obligation bond rating of the nation's largest bond seller one notch to "A"-minus from "A."

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California faces a $24 billion-plus budget deficit for the fiscal year that begins Wednesday, rapidly declining sales tax revenues and an impotent legislature that can’t agree on solutions. Faced with the prospect of running out of cash, State Controller John Chiang said Wednesday the state will begin to issue IOUs for all general fund payments other than those categories protected by the state constitution, federal law and court decisions.

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You now have a choice - paper IOU's or Gold?

Who's buying the bonds??

Complete collapse in foreign interest for GSE debt: North American holdings of the latter have increased from 50% to 80% of total notional in one year!

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US Federal Gov Debt:Total public debt is growing at the rate of $5 BILLION A DAY! The step change 3 qtr's ago was from a rate of $2 BILLION A DAY.

kennas said:

And then it crashes?

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No, .52 IS a crash for the world's reserve currency. The USDX is just under .80 now.

are there anyone on the thread forecasting gold with technical analysis?