Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[explod]

The US$ index is trying to go above 79 where it is meeting resistance, if it goes above that point gold will fail tonight. An interesting tussle and will see the result in the morning

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Could be a return to 'safety' on employment data etc., and some profit taking in equities although the real test will be if gold corellates positively with the DX this time around or does it's own thing? Depends when Goldman Sachs Fed finally lose control?

 

[explod]

Could be a return to 'safety' on employment data etc., and some profit taking in equities although the real test will be if gold corellates positively with the DX this time around or does it's own thing? Depends when Goldman Sachs Fed finally lose control?

Outa them there hills came a voice, now that's a bullish sign.

Yes we are at an interesting point Uncle and gold will chase them out of them there foxholes. And as old (Qld) Joe would say: (and I did not like him myself) "Dont' you worry about that"

cheers explod.

 

[solomon]

It looks like we saw the aforementioned smackdown.

My understanding of human nature means I don't disregard the possibility of massive intervention in the Gold markets.

If there is intervention I reckon the US must have blown a heap of their gold on keeping the price down to date and must be looking at a lot of floor space in the vaults. I also read somewhere recently (perhaps on the silver bear cafe) an analysis of US gold flows that suggested pretty much that large scale selling by the US government was the only way to account for the gold outflows reported by the US Bureau of Stats in 2007 and 2008.

Given we except the premise of intervention my prediction is that the US government's ability to surpress the price will increasingly be limited.

There are two likely patterns to emerge, the smackdown (sharp negative sell off during US trading) occurring only when other news/fundamentals for Gold are negative, thereby maximising the impact of the smackdown. Or alternatley a sustained period of smackdowns over days or weeks and then a sustained period of the inconspicuous absence of the smackdowns for days or weeks.

I guess they aren't either or strategies, but slowly leaking gold onto the market will not help hold the price down, so either or both of these strategies would make sense.

What do others think?

I'd love engagement on the premise that the US may be intervening in gold markets rather than a whole lot of people calling me an idiot for believing it is possible.

 

[explod]

My understanding of human nature means I don't disregard the possibility of massive intervention in the Gold markets.

I'd love engagement on the premise that the US may be intervening in gold markets rather than a whole lot of people calling me an idiot for believing it is possible.

It seems so to me but have also been shot down many times also.

A number of US analysts and pundits continually refer to it. I have decided to do a day by day analysis of gold's fluctuation. From a cursery look only a few days ago it appears that the US market takes it down. Of late, Asia and Europe have been pushing it up. So it will be interesting to put some real data together.

In a few days I will post the result.

 

[solomon]

It seems so to me but have also been shot down many times also.

A number of US analysts and pundits continually refer to it. I have decided to do a day by day analysis of gold's fluctuation. From a cursery look only a few days ago it appears that the US market takes it down. Of late, Asia and Europe have been pushing it up. So it will be interesting to put some real data together.

In a few days I will post the result.

I am way too busy to do it, but if you have time explod, could you add to your research days in which the price dropped by $15-$20 (chosen arbitrarily) or more very quickly to see if there is any pattern?

What I'm trying to work out is a way to trade what I think is going on.

One trade could be to buy on US close and sell before US open.

There may be other more profitable trades?

 

[skyQuake]

I remember a time when it used to be the opposite. US pushing it up...

Maybe its got to do with US brokers waking up and putting a whole stream of orders through.

Anyways lets see if the bargain buying will fade when New York opens

 

[explod]

I am way too busy to do it, but if you have time explod, could you add to your research days in which the price dropped by $15-$20 (chosen arbitrarily) or more very quickly to see if there is any pattern?

What I'm trying to work out is a way to trade what I think is going on.

One trade could be to buy on US close and sell before US open.

There may be other more profitable trades?

For short term trading gold is very upredictable IMHO. The nymex rose US$19 overnight which goes against our theory Solomon. Shorts may be running for cover as US$ index failing to break overhead resistance. Anyway I have started to correlate the figures.

 

[solomon]

For short term trading gold is very upredictable IMHO. The nymex rose US$19 overnight which goes against our theory Solomon. Shorts may be running for cover as US$ index failing to break overhead resistance. Anyway I have started to correlate the figures.

I still would have made money buying just after the NY close and selling just before the NY open.

I guess the pattern I'm seeing is that the price often swings wildly down in the US and when it is up it is more of a gradual sustained rise and more often than not the price creeps up from just after the NY close to just before the NY open.

If I gain confidence in this trade I really have no idea how to actually trade it, historically I have just held a portfolio of shares with comsec, and I've been 100% in gold miners for the last few weeks .

So any advice as to how I trade this pattern would be appreciated. Do I need to open a CFD account, or is there another way.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

For short term trading gold is very upredictable IMHO. The nymex rose US$19 overnight which goes against our theory Solomon. Shorts may be running for cover as US$ index failing to break overhead resistance. Anyway I have started to correlate the figures.

Explod,

the manipulators are back run for the hills!

or is it that thing called a correction???

 

[solomon]

Definitely would have been better off being out of the US market last night.

 

[explod]

Posted on 3rd May

There is and old saying that goes something like this. "A truly strong bull will buck the weak players off at every turn". That fact that there is nervousness out there indicates something is afoot.

We could see quite a fall to push the stops on gold but the fundamentals of money losing value and gold holding its tangible value are very solidly in place. Unless the financial system can play the game back to real value, gold must continue to rise. Physical gold is scarce because the smart money has been accumulating.

cheers explod.

>Apocalypto< Re: Gold Price - Where is it heading?

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Explod,

the manipulators are back run for the hills!

or is it that thing called a correction???

Pleased for the alert Apocalypto. No just keep walking steadily up the hill. Gold is a winner, recent uptrend channel well in place. And yes they always sell off after a build up when the audience is on the toes. Could not have the sheeple pondering the strength of gold over the weekend, could we now.

But I could be wrong.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Posted on 3rd May
Pleased for the alert Apocalypto. No just keep walking steadily up the hill. Gold is a winner, recent uptrend channel well in place. And yes they always sell off after a build up when the audience is on the toes. Could not have the sheeple pondering the strength of gold over the weekend, could we now.

But I could be wrong.

long term up medium term up. short term coming off.

that's expected as eur/usd aud/usd cable all in the same boat after the strong trend they have put in.

as much as I wanted to be 100% sure the usd was going to fly lower on friday at 3pm. the NFP was on and that bugger can change trends.

IMO i don't think the trend up is over. this is the first real correction to come along.

on the posted chart you can see the lines on resistance they enforce a normal trend up. Gold now has started to turn to a creeping trend. (not 100% confirmed yet) I am looking at 945 to 935 as a target area of the correction.

see were it gets to and look for a higher low to double bottom to confirm the trend continuation back to the highs.

I am still bullish Gold right now.

like u said we can always be wrong.

cant add the chart right now keeps on failing.....

 

[Trevor_S]

Thought this was an interesting enough read to post here

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124414646645386355.html

To say this metal is volatile is an understatement. Since the start of 2008, the price of gold has swung between $1000 and around $700 (it's currently at $965). This is a safe haven? When the stock market does this, it's on the front page.

And while U.S. and other Western investors are jumping aboard the golden caravan, many in Asia -- who rode it all the way from $260 an ounce -- are quietly disembarking. The World Gold Council, an industry body, reports that Asian investors were actually net sellers during the first quarter, while westerners bought heavily and sent prices soaring.

I am sure some of you will take umbrage with the article, if you do, take it up with the author, not the messenger

 

[explod]

Thought this was an interesting enough read to post here

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124414646645386355.html





I am sure some of you will take umbrage with the article, if you do, take it up with the author, not the messenger

The author is correct, day after day it is obvious that the Asian market is selling down. They too are trying to prop the $US to ensure a market for their goods. The selling however is met with huge investor buying that is why it continues to rise and the lows of the up channel in the gold price are gradually going higher.

For gold have a look at the 10 year chart on Kitco and it is obvious in the bigger picture.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

long term up medium term up. short term coming off.

that's expected as eur/usd aud/usd cable all in the same boat after the strong trend they have put in.

as much as I wanted to be 100% sure the usd was going to fly lower on friday at 3pm. the NFP was on and that bugger can change trends.

IMO i don't think the trend up is over. this is the first real correction to come along.

on the posted chart you can see the lines on resistance they enforce a normal trend up. Gold now has started to turn to a creeping trend. (not 100% confirmed yet) I am looking at 945 to 935 as a target area of the correction.

see were it gets to and look for a higher low to double bottom to confirm the trend continuation back to the highs.

I am still bullish Gold right now.

like u said we can always be wrong.

cant add the chart right now keeps on failing.....

here's the chart

 

[weatherbill]

Something big is gonna have to happen to break into some real gains on gold, like banks breaking ranks and dumping paper.

If gold breaks 1000 usd, they wil start selling some and depress the price.

it will just be a yo yo till something catastrophic happens

 

[Uncle Festivus]

They can only put lipstick on a pig for so long before it becomes obvious to all - US banking system is insolvent, and the US government is in hock to the tune of $12Trillion trying to re-float it. At the moment they are 'floating' due to accounting standards changes, but are still losing big time on the underlying loans ie property prices are down 26% yoy, and more resets to come at higher rates. The fly in the ointment is the 10 year treasuries yield - if they are going to continue to print IOU's then they want to give a better risk premium to those still keeping the USS Debtship afloat.

My long term ascending wedge (with the cappers always busy preventing a break out through $1k?) is still in place and could possibly not resolve til 2010 sometime (a double dip depression??), but if there is a break out then it will be spectacular, but would also mean the $US is finished. But in this climate nothing is predictable??

The BDI also just took a dive after a steady uptrend - Japanese exports still tanking....come on China

 

[moXJO]

My gold bug/uberbear senses are tingling again, time for another look at gold.

 

[derty]

The bullish sentiments for gold make sense to me and I have dipped my toe into the waters.

My problem isn't that we are going to see a leap in the POG in USD. It is that I'm uncertain that we will see any real appreciation in the POG in AUD. It seems recently that as the AUD is percieved as a strong currency in comparison to the USD that as soon as their is any weakness in the USD people seem to flee to gold and AUD. Also due to Australia not undergoing quantitative easing we shouldn't see the level of inflationary pressure that will be occurring in the US further strengthening the AUD.

Does that make sense, and if so are most of the comments here purely w.r.t. the POG in USD or do you believe that we will be seeing a substantial rise in the AUD POG too?