Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[SGB]

The close of 979.60 was the highest monthly close ever.

It is worth looking at the monthly chart for US:GOLD on bigcharts. The white candle goes from 48 to 69 IN A MONTH.

The starter has sounded the gun and our patience will be rewarded now.

In My Very Humble Opinion as usual. "OH how hard it is..."

Of course a few reds helps too.

cheers explod.

Nice:iagree:

 

[explod]

"We do not believe the sales, should they occur, will harm gold prices," said HSBC analyst James Steel.

IMF gold sale: US Congress approval next week
Commodity Online

LONDON: The International Monetary Fund’s decisiion to sell its gold reserves could get the necessary approval from the US Congress next week.

At the G20 summit in London in April, participating countries agreed the IMF could sell 403.3 metric tons of gold as part of efforts to leverage up to $6 billion in concessional loans for low-income countries over the next few years.

In order for the sale to proceed, 85% of IMF shareholders need to approve the proposal. Since the U.S. has 17% of the votes, it has a de facto veto over the proposal, which requires Congressional approval, but IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn told Dow Jones Newswires this week he expects Congress will soon approve the sale.

On Friday, analysts said US Congress may approve International Monetary Fund gold sales as early as next week.

"This issue appears now fully priced into the gold market and any announcement confirming sales should not move the market - apart from perhaps a knee-jerk reaction," said John Reade, an analyst at UBS.

Here we go again, wonder if it will get through this time. There certainly worried about the damnned relic, gold they say "its useless". And how sweet it is, my stocks up an average of 4% this morning.

 

[explod]

Over on the currency front, the only majors that were down against the greenback today were the Japanese Yen and the Swiss Franc. Both are being used by the carry trade as risk comes back with a vengeance. The Yen in particular was hit hard dropping over 150 points. The Dollar dropped below the 100 WEEK moving average at one point during today’s trading session but has managed to claw its way back to that level for now. It is so oversold that some guys are looking for a bounce although such a bounce will not last long as its technical picture is horrendous. There is a swing low on the weekly chart that was made back in December of last year that corresponds very closely to today’s session low. Should that level give way in the immediate future, the Dollar is going to drop rapidly down towards the 76 level. Below that is major, major support near 72. If that gives way, kiss the dollar goodbye and gold goodbye to the upside.

June gold has entered into its delivery period. Thus far deliveries are not all that impressive but we will continue to watch this. The action is now centered around the August contract. Open interest remains quite low (388,000) for gold to have made it to less than $10 from the $1,000 mark especially when you consider that the last time gold was up near these levels, open interest was closer to 590,000.

With the mining shares being hit once again by the same crowd and gold running into the bullion banks’ selling barrage just shy of $1,000, long side players will need to dig in to prevent the short term oriented momentum crowd from moving out and creating some selling pressure. AS long as weakness in the Dollar continues and commodity prices are rising across the board, gold will attract dip buying on any setbacks in price.

Excerpt from gold trader Dan on Jim Sinclair's Minesite.

Dan Norcini has been trading in the gold pits for over 40 years and have found him to an exellent daily commentator

cheers explod

 

[Trembling Hand]

Excerpt from gold trader Dan on Jim Sinclair's Minesite.

June gold has entered into its delivery period. Thus far deliveries are not all that impressive but we will continue to watch this. The action is now centered around the August contract. Open interest remains quite low (388,000) for gold to have made it to less than $10 from the $1,000 mark especially when you consider that the last time gold was up near these levels, open interest was closer to 590,000.

long side players will need to dig in to prevent the short term oriented momentum crowd from moving out and creating some selling pressure

Dan Norcini has been trading in the gold pits for over 40 years and have found him to an exellent daily commentator

cheers explod

That's funny Explod. here's someone you say knows what he is talking about but countering your BS "gold is manipulated" nonsense.

I'm confused . Does this dude know what he is talking about or is gold manipulated???

 

[explod]

That's funny Explod. here's someone you say knows what he is talking about but countering your BS "gold is manipulated" nonsense.

I'm confused . Does this dude know what he is talking about or is gold manipulated???

Matter a fact he often does mention the old PPT, was launched by Reagan back in the old days. I will post his take when next I spot it.

You part of the PPT maybe.

But I do not vouch for what Dan says, just find him worth following for my own purpose and thought others may find him of interest too.

cheers explod

 

[roysolder]

oh brother i,m confused-is gold going to dive or break through the 1000
thinking bout my shares in ogc explod

 

[Sean K]

oh brother i,m confused-is gold going to dive or break through the 1000
thinking bout my shares in ogc explod

You need to consider your investment horizon roysolder.

If you're a longer term buy and holder, then who cares what happens in the next few days.

If you're a short term trader, you should be using tight stops.

What are you?

 

[roysolder]

thanks kennas, i bought ogc in october and more along the way.i guess all my shares are long term.being a novice and don,t mind admitting it i beat myself up every time they peak and turn down.
i have 100k in ogc

 

[Sean K]

thanks kennas, i bought ogc in october and more along the way.i guess all my shares are long term.being a novice and don,t mind admitting it i beat myself up every time they peak and turn down.
i have 100k in ogc

Might just be time that you need to determine what type of investor/trader you are and how/when you buy and sell.

In regards to OGC I suppose you need to seriously consider it's short/long term prospects on whether it's a buy and hold or a trading stock. And the short and long term prospects of gold. Dig into the OGC reports and see what management are like, if they are going to grow, or be taken over, or whatever. Likewise with POG. Is it peaking again at $1000 never to be seen again? Or, if it breaks through, where to?

Just a couple of things to consider.

 

[explod]

thanks kennas, i bought ogc in october and more along the way.i guess all my shares are long term.being a novice and don,t mind admitting it i beat myself up every time they peak and turn down.
i have 100k in ogc

ogc has been in a very healthy uptrend since January of this year. For myself I have a rule that if a stock closes down 5% on a day it is sold at market open on the bid the next day. This stock has fairly good volume, fall on increased volume is another simple sign I look for. But we all get caught; you just have to get some solid rules for yourself and stick to them . IMVHO

 

[roysolder]

i do lots of study on the company,too much in fact where my sleep time is being taxed.
they have a lot in their favour at the moment although the us dollar is weakening, oil going up.their production is up 49% expecting to produce 300,000 oz this year(i think Q1 produced 80,000)

 

[Boyou]

Some don't think much of Dan Denning or his On-line publication The Daily Reckoning....just a bit of hope for the holders of Gold smalls...I have plenty of them

" And by the way, why not a gold exploration boom? Gold mining requires lower capital overheads than bulk materials extraction. And with a rising gold price, it's worth a punt. If the gold mania really takes off (it's starting), look for a boom in the junior explorers."

Cheers Ya'll

 

[roysolder]

i like the fan analogy boyou, you guys are just a wealth of information lol.
thanks explod for your opinion as well.i am grateful

 

[explod]

Some don't think much of Dan Denning or his On-line publication The Daily Reckoning....just a bit of hope for the holders of Gold smalls...I have plenty of them

" And by the way, why not a gold exploration boom? Gold mining requires lower capital overheads than bulk materials extraction. And with a rising gold price, it's worth a punt. If the gold mania really takes off (it's starting), look for a boom in the junior explorers."

Cheers Ya'll

You make a good point here and is why I keep an eye on RNG. Goldstar Resources (delisted GDR) but have a meeting coming up soon. More by luck I was out but they have the stuff in the ground. Deep and very hard rock but it will become a goer the way we are heading. The following from Jim Sinclair's minesite is on the same track:

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)–Declining supply and investor demand driven by economic uncertainty and future inflation are likely to keep gold prices high, mining company officials said Tuesday. "Our view is that the gold market is in probably one of its most promising phases," said Willie Jacobsz, head of investor relations with Gold Fields Ltd. (GFI).

He cited economic uncertainty around the world, future inflation and "a very real decline in global mine supply" as cause for his company’s optimism on the gold price.

"We are simply not finding any new reserves anywhere in the world," Jacobsz said at a New York Society of Security Analysts metals and mining conference. Further, deposits where gold can be relatively easily extracted are being tapped out, he said.

Meanwhile, investors have been snapping up the metal as a currency, uncertainty and inflation hedge.

"The current rally in the gold price is driven by investment demand," Jacobsz said. "We don’t see sentiment changing very soon."

Gold prices will remain strong as long as investors keep flocking to the metal, said Victor Flores, senior mining analyst with HSBC.

"There has been a great deal of interest in gold from investors," Flores said. "As long as gold ETF [exchange-traded fund] demand remains robust, you will see gold [prices] hold up." Although deflationary pressures are strong at the moment, higher inflation and weaker currencies will probably assert themselves down the road as results of government stimulus efforts to fight the economic downturn, Flores said.

"At the moment we are fighting deflation," Flores said. "What’s really lurking around the corner is inflation."

Investors historically have bought gold as a hedge against inflation because they see it holding its value more strongly than other assets amid rising prices. It is also bought as a safe-haven in times of political and economic uncertainty.

"Gold is the only asset class that withstood the current economic downturn," said William Biggar, president and chief executive of North American Palladium Ltd. (PAL), which last month completed the acquisition of Cadiscor Resources Inc. and its gold mine in Quebec.

"Our growth strategy is focused on precious metals and acquiring quality gold assets," Biggar said.

-By Matt Whittaker, Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-5959;
matt.whittaker@dowjones.com

 

[explod]

Now I know you may want to shoot me down but the following is not what will happen it is just what I think.

Since the start of May we have had a steady rise with steps of good consolidation making the current level well supported. The steps of consolidation were at US$915, 930, 955 and now at 980. In early London trade last night gold was sold off down to 968. It now sits at 986.

The $US index is moving down as I write after a bit of a rally after the US market close. I think we will have a breakout any time before Fridays close to the next step, around the 1000 mark. On the last months action this will be a week of sit before the next upleg. We may have this for some time to 1030, after that is new territory and could be bingo.

we will wait and see.

Other views and criticism would be helpful

cheers explod

 

[solomon]

I've got no idea on the charts, maybe by this time next year I'll have taken your advice and learn to read charts, I can only take one bit of good advice per year.

My obserations are that the volumes seem to have dropped off a bit and there have been none of the big smackdown drops at the US open of late. Both of those factors I think bode well for at least a holding pattern around $980, and perhaps another move up.

If we start seeing the smackdowns of large price drops I'll be getting nervous.

Also it will be interesting to see how the POG reacts to the almost certain popular news story of IMF sales due anytime now. If $980 holds again that is positive in my opinion.

 

[explod]

Also it will be interesting to see how the POG reacts to the almost certain popular news story of IMF sales due anytime now. If $980 holds again that is positive in my opinion.

They trotted that story out last week and all it has done was to perhaps stall the inevitable shot past the 1000 mark for awhile. The fact that silver is gaining strength (ahead of gold) says to me on many observations of this over the last 5 years that a big uplift in the price of both maybe not too far away.

I notice also a fair bit of volotility in both currencies and the metals happenning which also has been a pointer to a larger price directional change.

We will soon see which way it goes IMHO

Chuck Butler of Everbank is worth reading from time to time, he puts out a daily free to all on currencies. His link: www.everbank.com

 

[skyQuake]

Lets see how it holds up tonight, could be a turning point. Not looking too swell at the moment..

 

[explod]

Lets see how it holds up tonight, could be a turning point. Not looking too swell at the moment..

There is and old saying that goes something like this. "A truly strong bull will buck the weak players off at every turn". That fact that there is nervousness out there indicates something is afoot.

We could see quite a fall to push the stops on gold but the fundamentals of money losing value and gold holding its tangible value are very solidly in place. Unless the financial system can play the game back to real value, gold must continue to rise. Physical gold is scarce because the smart money has been accumulating.

I'm sure there is someone out there who can put it in a nut shell better than I. However the movements tonight could be interesting.

But its bed time for this old black duck.

cheers explod.

 

[explod]

its bounced off 975 to 977 as I wrote the last post, lets see what New York does when the Nymex opens in 20 minutes.

Maybe I'll hang around for the fun (if any) a little.