Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[MRC & Co]

You wouldn't have a link would you?

wonder.

Sorry can't find it again, came accross it on my search on the subject.

However, I believe it must have been older than I originally thought, as I saw a very recent report stating he now thinks the USD has already experienced a lot of it's decline. Not sure his current thought process, but there is no clear nexus between that statement and his old thoughts on currencies and their drivers.

Unless I am missing something..........perhaps another attempt to spend their way out of the mess as per the 1982 international debt crisis? What better environment to do so than in a deflationary one.........

 

[Tradesurfer]

Looking at a weekly chart of gold (using the ETF symbol:GLD), we can see that Gold is about to come to a major decision point. Will it wind up being a triple top or a breakout of the very deep triangle?

A couple of key points to consider.

1- If it breaks out of the triangle and above the old 1000.44 high, based upon calculating a triangle breakout target that puts the move to potentially 1200 or so. Traders looking at a potential long position might wait for that breakout to buy and then place their stop below what was old resistance but would now be support.

2- Thos looking at a short sale might look to see if price stalls at the old highs and retraces. Should that happen some traders may look to short Gold or the ETF traded on the US market symbol:GLD and place their stops a little above the old highs to protect themselves.

I have attached a weekly chart (each price bar is 1 week) to help look at Gold from a longer term view.

So where will gold go? Should be decision time shortly.

Off course there are not sure things and as an earlier post mentioned technicians are trying to play the probabilities so its crucial to keep losses small.

Note- since this is the ETF chart and not Gold itself, a price of 1000 in gold would be 100 for the etf.

 

[arco]

Nice trade on the Ichi break - testing the Kumo base line now...

 

[explod]

Nice trade on the Ichi break - testing the Kumo base line now...

Yes and we have bounced off the support now at US$940 to return to last weeks area around 950. As the traders rub thier eyes after the long weekend in the US the manipuators vain attempt to break the trend has failed.

Dont adhere too much to Sinclair as he is a bit over the top but longer term the following scenario if half correct will reward the stayers:-

In The News Today
Posted: May 26 2009 By: Jim Sinclair Post Edited: May 26, 2009 at 5:22 pm

Filed under: In The News

Dear CIGAs,

Predictions:

1. Gold reacts as currency support for the dollar enters mid June to a slow decline (that is the official definition of a strong dollar policy, really).
2. End of 2nd week going into the beginning of the 3rd week of June Gold launches towards and this time through the neckline of the reverse head and shoulders formation.
3. Gold rises to $1224 where it hesitates.
4. The OTC derivative market takes on the dollar as short sellers into dollar support.
5. This OTC derivative currency short position builds.
6. It is the US dollar where Armstrong will get his WATERFALL.
7. The main selling takes place when Israel makes a major miscalculation.
8. Hyperinflation is always and will continue to be a currency event.
9. Hyperinflation will be a product of the upcoming massive OTC derivative short dollar raid.

Should I be correct in the gold price action going into late June, it will fit Armstrong’s criterion for a move to $5000.

Alf’s work permits an over-run of the gold price to $3500 in the major 3rd phase, indicating overruns into the major 5th.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

As the traders rub thier eyes after the long weekend in the US the manipuators vain attempt to break the trend has failed.
QUOTE]

What type of fairy world do u live in Explod?

So let me get this straight, every time gold sees some selling it's being manipulated!

Give me a break......

 

[Trembling Hand]

So let me get this straight, every time gold sees some selling it's being manipulated!

Give me a break......

Yep thats right.

Of course the manipulators don't seem to be able to hold down that far more useful US dollar alternative, oil

 

[explod]

Yep thats right.

Of course the manipulators don't seem to be able to hold down that far more useful US dollar alternative, oil

Someone did a good job on oil from 140 then to 40.
the crash of course.

But gold is the enemy of fiat currencies and the banking cartels facilitate its fall at every opportunity to protect and prolong the live of the valueless US dollar. (China getting into them for buyuing there own bonds, what a joke..the weimer republic rises again) It happens at partibular technical levesl and at times when we are asleep or coming out of holidays. I have been watching it too close for too long not to read the picture of its movement. It is most alway accompanied by media jawboning particularly from Bloomberg and Nadler on Kitko.

Apo, go to the Privateer webpage and download a couple of his blurbs, which are free to newcomers. A radical economist some would say but his projections of the last five years have been spot on. He deals in pure economic fundamantals and all information is based on facts duly notated. He backs it with well presented point and figure charting. DISCLAIMER: I have no association with him and due to shifting house not financial to the newsletter at this time.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Apo, go to the Privateer webpage and download a couple of his blurbs, which are free to newcomers. A radical economist some would say but his projections of the last five years have been spot on. He deals in pure economic fundamantals and all information is based on facts duly notated. He backs it with well presented point and figure charting. DISCLAIMER: I have no association with him and due to shifting house not financial to the newsletter at this time.

Explod,

I try not to get involved with that type of thing as it distracts me from my trading and breeds poor results as I am no longer objective.....

I just concentrate on what the market tells me not a Guru.....

If it works for u then well done.

 

[explod]

Explod,

I try not to get involved with that type of thing as it distracts me from my trading and breeds poor results as I am no longer objective.....

I just concentrate on what the market tells me not a Guru.....

If it works for u then well done.

I do do some short day trades but rarely. My perspective is longer term trend following in a sector that is also in a medium to longer term thread. I do couple that with some fundamentals but more the sense of what markets and currencies are doing and the fundamental reasons for thier moves.

So please do not fret I respect and know that avid stock followers do better than I do but I can walk from the screen for days or weeks and not have to worry too much. My own basics do well enough for me.

A few years ago I did do 12 months or so glued to the screen and increased my entire share portfolio by 65% My age and hypertension is against me now but my 30% average is probably better than most.

Cheers explod

 

[arco]

.
My concern is the direction of gold is in the next few hours/day, and I dont read any of the guru's predictions on where the yellow metal might be going. My decision is based only on the H1/H4 chart.

2 more great opps over the last 24hrs

 

[explod]

.
My concern is the direction of gold is in the next few hours/day, and I dont read any of the guru's predictions on where the yellow metal might be going. My decision is based only on the H1/H4 chart.

2 more great opps over the last 24hrs

Maybe we need gold direction threads for Short term, medium term and long term.

Maybe, "gold as a viable investment" "gold trading" and the current one for medium term.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Maybe, "gold as a viable investment"

Just on that one. Anyone see the 7:30 report last night?? Spewing out the positive gold line.


NOT A GOOD SIGN

 

[MrBurns]

I think we're headed for inflation, in fact no doubt about it, i'm thinking of going reasonably heavy into gold at Perth Mint, they charge 2% in, ouch !

Anyone think I'm crazy before I do this ?

 

[Trembling Hand]

I think we're headed for inflation, in fact no doubt about it, i'm thinking of going reasonably heavy into gold at Perth Mint, they charge 2% in, ouch !

Anyone think I'm crazy before I do this ?

No doubt you have a view that last longer than a couple of months?

Then even if it does turn out to be a good trade there would be no need to go all in at once. Bit at a time just in case.

The ones in love with gold will tell ya you doing the right thing

But gold may not be the best thing or only trade, many things are good in an inflationary enviro. Just look at the run of oil and stocks recently.

Something the gold bugs have missed badly while they wait for their unfaithful lover to reward them :

 

[MrBurns]

No doubt you have a view that last longer than a couple of months?

Then even if it does turn out to be a good trade there would be no need to go all in at once. Bit at a time just in case.

The ones in love with gold will tell ya you doing the right thing

But gold may not be the best thing or only trade, many things are good in an inflationary enviro. Just look at the run of oil and stocks recently.

Something the gold bugs have missed badly while they wait for their unfaithful lover to reward them :

I'm sure there's truckloads of things out there but I dont trust myself with lots of money, if it's not property I dont trust it, so I just stay out of most of it.

My father once said to me that inflation destroyed his superannuation, dont want that to happen to me.

 

[wonderrman]

I think we're headed for inflation, in fact no doubt about it, i'm thinking of going reasonably heavy into gold at Perth Mint, they charge 2% in, ouch !

Anyone think I'm crazy before I do this ?

Could you get the gold sent to you and put in a safe in the wall? Just don't tell anyone.

What about safety deposit boxes? Do they still have them in bank headquarters in the city?

wonder.

 

[explod]

Could you get the gold sent to you and put in a safe in the wall? Just don't tell anyone.

What about safety deposit boxes? Do they still have them in bank headquarters in the city?

wonder.

Yes they do and that's where I put mine. Works out at about 0ne half percent per weight value (mix of silver and gold ingots) and that to me is pretty good considering its growth since 2005.

 

[MRC & Co]

But gold may not be the best thing or only trade, many things are good in an inflationary enviro. Just look at the run of oil and stocks recently.

Trouble is, any further downturn in the economy (falling USD decreasing demand for Chinese exports, slowing the Chinese economy and a reduction in the demand for commodities), all potentially possible, would have an affect on both stocks and oil, so in themselves, they are probably not as good longer-term global macro plays as what gold is for the sole purpose of hedging against inflation.

Another theory I have, is to short long-term bonds, as the general public will probably buy these now for the greater yield. However, to combat what is probably going to be impending inflation due to additional liquidity being added as a stimulant, rates will probably rise in the medium-term and push down bond prices. Counter-intuitive and disclaimer: I am no expert in the bond markets.

 

[explod]

Another theory I have, is to short long-term bonds, as the general public will probably buy these now for the greater yield. However, to combat what is probably going to be impending inflation due to additional liquidity being added as a stimulant, rates will probably rise in the medium-term and push down bond prices. Counter-intuitive and disclaimer: I am no expert in the bond markets.

In the 1930's most companies and many financial institutional bonds became worthless as business folded. I would no sooner put money in bonds as give it to the man in the moon. Should do some reading up on bonds. At the moment the Federal reserve is buying up thier own bonds because no one else wants them. Sort of like making paper money for nothing and another reason why gold will skyrocket when the penny starts to drop on the general investment communiity. Anyway plenty of time to get set, a long way from the taxi driver getting it yet. Just worth getting your powder dry.

 

[GumbyLearner]

Did anyone catch the story on the 7.30 report last night?

Gold Rush in times of economic turmoil

http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/

Bloody gold bug propagandists. Whats the world going too? I can only think of one word