Gold Price - Where is it heading?

moXJO · 3 April 2009

kennas said:
IMF selling $6b of gold reserves to help with the G20 dash for cash.

Short term POG has taken a hit, but medium long term impact?

Anything?

Or, was the POG pullback just a reaction to people jumping on the equities bandwagon?

Wonder if this will end up straight to china?
Is Germany selling off some gold as well?

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/G20-supports-IMF-plan-raise/story.aspx?guid={5ABAE8F2-060D-44BC-9905-EB79665AEACE}

Hussein Allidina, an analyst at Morgan Stanley, said in a note Thursday that he expects the IMF to implement the sales over the next few years, "but do not believe that this presents a strong negative risk to gold prices - as it will be 'orderly' and maybe even off market."

Uncle Festivus · 3 April 2009

kennas said:
IMF selling $6b of gold reserves to help with the G20 dash for cash.

Short term POG has taken a hit, but medium long term impact?

Anything?

Or, was the POG pullback just a reaction to people jumping on the equities bandwagon?

The talk is that it will be bought directly buy the creditor nations eg China off market, as has been the case for several years now. That's if it even goes ahead as it still needs a unanimous approval process to get through?

The other talk is that it get's sold to the big bad underwater short bullion banks so they can deliver on their contracts, an increasingly common occurrence.

The transfer of wealth continues.

A NEAR-record trade surplus should really be good news, but it only reveals a deepening malaise in the Australian economy.
-----
The jump in exports was spearheaded by an unusual 54.8 per cent spike in shipments of gold, Australia's fourth-largest export commodity.
"This spike, we believe, may be an indication of a flight to safety from riskier assets, something we last witnessed around the onset of the Asian financial crisis in 1997," JPMorgan economist Helen Kevans said.
"That said, the gold story also is reflective of higher prices, with the average spot price up 10 per cent over the month."
In February, spot gold was trading around $US920 a fine ounce and hit a peak just over $US1000.

http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,25281628-3122,00.html

The irony of it all - the trade surplus, created almost entirely from good old gold exports, hit's a record so the $Au get's bought up lowering the local gold price!

My super gold wedge is still forming, the dead cat bounce is about finished for general equities again, and my target for the $US/$AU is still below 50c (shorting now @72c). The time to buy goldies again will be after the next flush down in plebs? Physical looking attractive again here at $1260 odd, but, not yet???

Still need a few more posters to be overly pessimistic about gold for me to be overly optimistic again though

Uncle Festivus · 3 April 2009

sinner said:
Hi prana,

You are concerned about AUD moves wiping out any gains gold might provide and this is fair enough.

If we take Whiskers EW count as being a good one, AUDUSD should approach 0.75 and you can make your gold buy there as I doubt we will see much strength beyond that point.

Alternatively you could purchase a proportional long on the AUDUSD to hedge purchasing gold at your current price.

Personally, I have not bought gold since the 1100AUD mark and have a portion of funds which I monthly allocate to gold and have not been spent yet. If the price is not favorable for me to move these funds into gold when AUD approaches 0.75 AUDUSD I will simply put the money into silver.

Dunno bout the 75c figure as it look's to be approaching a significant resistance level around 72-73, coupled with the possibility of an interest rate cut next week?

sinner · 3 April 2009

Hi guys,

Sorry I haven't been posting updates. Hope you did not miss me too much :

Was watching as gold broke down last night, but unaware of the reasoning.

Not sure about the rest of you, but the last $HUI rally was enough to push my collection of goldies to the point where I could take initial capital out and play for free, which I did.

Anyway, I have exited all my other longs because I got a job offer at University of Melbourne and would like a good cash base for the move without being worried about it going up or down (at least until I've settled in!).

I guess you will not hear too much more from me until I've moved.

Good luck.

nunthewiser · 3 April 2009

good luck with it all sinner............watch those hippys

electronicmaster · 5 April 2009

For me? Gold is no longer about price. The governments and Central Banks all over the world have over spent by committing crimes that even the best crooks can only dream of. All thanks to the Banks toxic CDS, synthetic CDO's and over inflated mortgage issues (plus others).

It has come to the point that having Gold and/or Silver is the only way to survive the inflation issues that is to come.

If the Silver or gold price falls then take the advantage and buy Bullion only. Stay away from fake paper contracts. Because it will come to a point were people won't care what the paper price of PM's are. The physical "Bullion" price will deviate from the paper price.

Then paper Gold and Silver will be worthless to anyone.

Ask your self this question. How are you suppose to know the true market data (profits, sales, and other fundamentals) if finance is allowed to BS the numbers?

Why is the governments controlling the markets when they can't control themselves, or their own?

Here is some wacky examples of what I'm talking about. And it is only the tip of the ice burg:-

http://mises.org/story/3128

So it is up to you. Do you have Gold and/or Silver?

electronicmaster · 5 April 2009

Oh yes. An update on the COMEX default issues. The people are voting with their money it seems.

Did the ECB Save COMEX from Gold Default?

excerpt from the article:-

Decision: There is sufficient evidence for this case to go to a full scale investigation. The CFTC and similar securities regulators in Europe need to properly investigate the gold conspiracy allegations. That has never been done to date. They must determine who is buying central bank gold and whether or not it is simply being sold into the open market, or channeled into the hands of favored financial institutions who then use it to cover naked short selling. The investigation must include detailed vault audits and explore all paper trails.

electronicmaster · 5 April 2009

Gold tipped for record high

excerpt:-

Gold prices will "blow through'' a record high this year as inflation accelerates amid a surge in government spending.

"This will be a positive year for gold,'' Mark Johnson, manager of the USAA Precious Metals and Minerals Fund, said.

"With all the liquidity that has been pumped into the system, there's definitely going to be inflation. For us, it's not a question of if gold will rise, but when.''

excerpt 2:-

"We are going to be moving out of deflation and into inflation soon,'' Mr Johnson said.

Gold futures for June delivery dropped $US7.50, or 0.8%, to $US901.40 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. The price has gained 2.8% this year.

Have you got Gold and/or Silver?

metric · 6 April 2009

in the worst economic period since the great depression, gold has risen in value, of a measely 10-15%. admitedly, it has held its value when other investment classes have lost value. but we havent seen the masive rises that commodity spruikers and doom and gloomers have been pontificating.

there has been talk of $2000-$3000 dollar gold. but even as more bad news comes out, gold hardly budges.

we all know that gold is manipulated. what evidence is there that gold is going to be let run ? there is none. in fact, banks are selling gold! the manipulators are getting out of gold and selling it to the masses..

if gold cant budge in these times, why would we think it can explode at all?

has gold had its little run? or are things about to get much worse, and see gold actually breaking free of the banksters?

or will a new world currency be introduced to keep the manipulators in control?

.

explod · 6 April 2009

in the worst economic period since the great depression, gold has risen in value, of a measely 10-15%. admitedly, it has held its value when other investment classes have lost value. but we havent seen the masive rises that commodity spruikers and doom and gloomers have been pontificating.

Excuse me ? from its low of US$260 in 2001/2 gold is now about 900.

The big issue is the the US dollar being maintained as the world reserve currency. Gold used to back currencies and gave them true value. As the value of the US paper money depletes, as it is/has gold rises. The G20 justg pastg was really as one put it the G2, the Us and China, the latter owning two much debt baced US dollars. China is now openly expressing its concern at the imbalance and worrying about how to extricate itself/and realising that it cannot dump without crashing the dollar, but it will son have to.

As the dust settles this week in the aftergolw of the G20 you may witness some change, the fact that gold held up so well last week (albiet a large fall) is testament that big buying comes in at this level.

Having said that gold is an instument that holds value when all else (and all else is) failing. Have had 40% of my super in gold for a number of years now and (whew) glad now.

So take heart my son and a little patience.

cheers explod

There is a great article on the website of "The Privateer" on gold as money

metric · 6 April 2009

excuse you back......since this drama started.......

metric · 6 April 2009

and the only way gold will 'explode' will be if the bankster manipulators let it, or they lose control. i believe they are stronger now, than at any time in history.

.

explod · 6 April 2009

metric said:
and the only way gold will 'explode' will be if the bankster manipulators let it, or they lose control. i believe they are stronger now, than at any time in history.

.

Not only have the banks lost it they no longer trust each other. That the ones who have not gone broke or been gailed out by taxpayers money of course.

And you perhaps a 350% plus increase in the price of gold since 02 is chicken feed I suppose.

And what makes you bedlieve they are stronger old son (and in history)

Beej · 6 April 2009

explod said:
Excuse me ? from its low of US$260 in 2001/2 gold is now about 900.

If you live in AU, and convert those prices to $AU based on prevailing average exchange rates in each period (2000/2001 = AU$1 = ~US$0.52.5c, currently AU$1 = US$0.72) you get AU$500 -> AU$1250 over that period. That's an average annualised return of about 11% pa - not to bad, but not atmospheric either.

Cheers,

Beej

sinner · 6 April 2009

metric said:
in the worst economic period since the great depression, gold has risen in value, of a measely 10-15%. admitedly, it has held its value when other investment classes have lost value. but we havent seen the masive rises that commodity spruikers and doom and gloomers have been pontificating.
.

Said the forums head pontificator.

Whiskers · 6 April 2009

Uncle Festivus said:
Dunno bout the 75c figure as it look's to be approaching a significant resistance level around 72-73, coupled with the possibility of an interest rate cut next week?

Well if it goes above 7441 in the near future my EW count is shot!

Looks to me like the 200 day SMA is about 7440 now and veering lower too.

It may have another go at 73, but I'm tipping it trends back and hangs around in the 60's for quite a while, helping out our miners.

Naked shorts · 8 April 2009

metric said:
I believe they are stronger now, than at any time in history.

Stronger? Why would they need to be bailed out if they are stronger?

I think when the time is right, someone who has been watching their balance sheets, will strike ala George Soros.

explod · 8 April 2009

After the move down Monday morning, when the traders were still asleep, gold has moved sideways to up. With the rise against the dow down overnight and the move up the last few hours I think we may see some strength again soon.

wonderrman · 8 April 2009

explod said:
After the move down Monday morning, when the traders were still asleep, gold has moved sideways to up. With the rise against the dow down overnight and the move up the last few hours I think we may see some strength again soon.

Firstly strength or weakness will I believe entirely depend on what happens in equity markets over the next few weeks. If we see a drip drap consolidation period on our markets soon it is a bullish sign that markets are ready to move up. If this happens holding a trade in gold will be stupid over the next few months. A basing period of stock markets would suggest that they will push alot higher, possibily to either ~4400 or ~5000 on the XJO as this is the next levels of 'major' resistence. If this scenario plays out then Gold could most likely push down between I would say 700 and 750, there is some support there.

If markets collapse again over the next few weeks which I believe is highly unlikely now then Gold would do a u turn and push up. I don't think this is going to happen though. At the moment, short term I am bullish and am looking for this basing period or the formation of the right shoulder on the XJO chart to play out over the next few weeks.

As I mentioned if this basing period on the markets plays out I would actually be looking to go short gold in the short term.

This does not mean I am not bullish on gold in the long term (2+ years). I think economically we are stuffed and this bounce is simply a retracement (remember that retracements of 38%, 50% and 62% are common) and this push up is most likely apart of a longer term downtrend on equity markets. I would be buying some physical gold on the dips if I could afford it and storing it in a safe place somewhere. The economies future is really quite depressing. This is my long term view though and the things I have been detailing in my previous posts could take quite a while to play out.

Wonder.

>Apocalypto< · 8 April 2009

explod said:
After the move down Monday morning, when the traders were still asleep, gold has moved sideways to up. With the rise against the dow down overnight and the move up the last few hours I think we may see some strength again soon.

always able to see a positive in Gold, good on you explod at least u follow your dreams....

when it finally reaches 1500 or 5000 please send me a pm that day. I just hope i am still on this earth...

Gold Price - Where is it heading?

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