Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[Dangerous]

I agree we're starting to see it mentioned more in the financial media and that analysts are starting to become bullish on it, but we don't have Jamie Durie out there on prime time with his metal detector yet doinig 'gold prospectors blitz' so still a ways to go imo.

This comment has stuck in my head, a beauty but also some truth.

After reading about the gold parties being hosted in the US where people flog their jewellery off i wondered if that compares to Jamie Duries Amazing Metal Detector segment?.... hmm

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7920895.stm


NB. i am 25% in gold bullion and miners

 

[Ageo]

Ok just heard some interesting news, my fellow buyers had a superannuation conference in adelaide last week. Believe it or not but super funds are now considering gold as an asset allocation (which they should have done yrs ago). So there you have it commodities will most likely be an option for fund managers (imagine if they did how much cash could have been hedged???)

Anywayz ill keep you's posted when the news hits

 

[explod]

With both the Bank of England and US Reserve printing money, isn't this only going to push Gold up?

You got it. $US index breaking support, a little further down maybe and we will see it return down as fast as it went up from October. With gold holding this level it may go ballistic from here against the global money print now coming out from the dark.

We shall see what eventuates soon IMHO.

And Sinner, I learnt that patting oneself on the back may put one on thin ice. Much better to follow after the event.

 

[Largesse]

i can't say i have much experience with gold or commods in general
but i'ev got this gut feeling that gold could really punch through $1000 USD in the next few trading days if some of the heat comes of the dow

just a gut feeling, hold no interest in it either way

 

[sinner]

And Sinner, I learnt that patting oneself on the back may put one on thin ice. Much better to follow after the event.

Don't worry explod, now that gold has bounced we should see a similar action in T-bills in a week or so.

So far there is super strong resistance very clear on the 30y yield (or support on the price) chart which could not be broken even with gold at 1000. Watch this breaking to the upside for signs of serious trouble until then we can relax.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

And Sinner, I learnt that patting oneself on the back may put one on thin ice. Much better to follow after the event.

Implode

I would not think I am to smart as all that happened was a news release.

I and others called the aud euro up two weeks ago based on pattern of trend. this last spike no one can take credit for its an event that happened.

The distribution pattern on the usd index fulled by the short and long term debt market has been building for weeks.

My que for u is did u call it down at 1000 or did you think it was going sky high till it fell?

I still remember you calling it up all last year when it went down to 680. yeh i know you're long term but mate the march 08 high still stands. For the record, I am bullish medium term on gold and aud/usd and eur/usd.

You can't claim unexpected occurrences as gospel preached by u.

jeezzzzz

 

[sinner]

Hi Apocalypto, I do not know if the last line is directed at me but my prediction for this weeks Treasury strength was backed up with a host of reasons, all of which ended up being correct to the tee. I never claimed any soothesaying abilities from my recent gold long mentioned above and in fact mentioned it was not the norm for me (I only took a trading signal to wake up finding the USD had crapped its pants). On the other hand I was skeptical of golds rise all the way from 946-1000 and again all my posts claiming this come with a bunch of justification for my opinion.

But I am not here to discuss that, rather to post a small dissert by John Embry of Sprott Asset Management out of Canada who I have a lot of respect for (plus they are long RMS like me

http://www.sprott.com/pdf/investorsdigest/digest.pdf

In the middle of his usual gold-bug rant, he points out just how huge the SPDR GLD holdings supposedly are now, supposedly more than the Swiss National Bank, yet such a huge accumulation of physical has not put a dent in supply or even provided much support to the price action.

So are these "physical longs" really even there? Or is SPDR just holding huge and leveraged long futs against the bank shorts? How can they really be the 6th largest gold holder in the world? They are already the third largest ETF in the world (behind only SPY and QQQQ).

I am not here to decide one way or the other for you. But personally I am far more skeptical of GLD, its holdings, and its extremely complex legal structure than holding a bar for roughly the same cost in a safe deposit box or burying it for free.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Hi Apocalypto, I do not know if the last line is directed at me but my prediction for this weeks Treasury strength was backed up with a host of reasons, all of which ended up being correct to the tee. I never claimed any soothesaying abilities from my recent gold long mentioned above and in fact mentioned it was not the norm for me (I only took a trading signal to wake up finding the USD had crapped its pants). On the other hand I was skeptical of golds rise all the way from 946-1000 and again all my posts claiming this come with a bunch of justification for my opinion.

But I am not here to discuss that, rather to post a small dissert by John Embry of Sprott Asset Management out of Canada who I have a lot of respect for (plus they are long RMS like me

http://www.sprott.com/pdf/investorsdigest/digest.pdf

In the middle of his usual gold-bug rant, he points out just how huge the SPDR GLD holdings supposedly are now, supposedly more than the Swiss National Bank, yet such a huge accumulation of physical has not put a dent in supply or even provided much support to the price action.

So are these "physical longs" really even there? Or is SPDR just holding huge and leveraged long futs against the bank shorts? How can they really be the 6th largest gold holder in the world? They are already the third largest ETF in the world (behind only SPY and QQQQ).

I am not here to decide one way or the other for you. But personally I am far more skeptical of GLD, its holdings, and its extremely complex legal structure than holding a bar for roughly the same cost in a safe deposit box or burying it for free.

wasn't directed at you sinner.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Ever wondered what a trillion dollars looks like?

http://www.pagetutor.com/trillion/index.html

Doesn't look like gold is convinced the 'stimulis' will work, again? All in the open now about printing the 'I-owe-you-noughts' and gold...down...$10?

Gold/Dow = 1 when?

 

[GumbyLearner]

Ever wondered what a trillion dollars looks like?

http://www.pagetutor.com/trillion/index.html

Doesn't look like gold is convinced the 'stimulis' will work, again? All in the open now about printing the 'I-owe-you-noughts' and gold...down...$10?

Gold/Dow = 1 when?

HAHAHA..LOL

 

[prana]

The problem I have is, with the CRB so low and base metals now looking like a possible turnaround, gold may even see gains in the USD but might not translate to us. It will be a rat race between the rising AUD to see any gains for us - I would say a buying opportunity may even present itself if people start buying AUD and the USD continues to drop on a base metals recovery story - who knows? I don't. I guess I'll wait and see, buy on weakness. Chances are, gold may even actually soften below in USD terms and then come back up again, a correction against the deflationist and inflationist, a double whammy for those already invested. I'm definitely bullish in a >3 month window though so I'll look to get back in thereafter - right now, I'd rather be invested in base metals. Any thoughts to share?

 

[Glen48]

Seems to me every one wants to keep away from Gold as long as there is any news about bailouts, or the corner store selling 2 more ice creams in a week therefore we have reached the bottom.. BOE M. King told Brown there is no more loot for bailouts and they are looking again at Glass Steagall but once all these suckers realise there it's all over Gold will start to move up....sit back and wait for signals over 1K

 

[prana]

no I'm definitely a gold long. Just short term, perhaps overbought with the mountain of a FX moved by base metals confusing my horizon.

 

[sinner]

Hi prana,

You are concerned about AUD moves wiping out any gains gold might provide and this is fair enough.

If we take Whiskers EW count as being a good one, AUDUSD should approach 0.75 and you can make your gold buy there as I doubt we will see much strength beyond that point.

Alternatively you could purchase a proportional long on the AUDUSD to hedge purchasing gold at your current price.

Personally, I have not bought gold since the 1100AUD mark and have a portion of funds which I monthly allocate to gold and have not been spent yet. If the price is not favorable for me to move these funds into gold when AUD approaches 0.75 AUDUSD I will simply put the money into silver.

 

[prana]

cool - I'm also picking up silver. Funny that.

 

[sinner]

Hi guys,

Here is weekly gold accompanied by the ratios I keep an eye on as well as some nice pretty lines to go with it.

This is not financial advice, just some pretty lines which represent my humble opinion, DYOR!

 

[Ageo]

Just to update from the physical market refiners and bullion houses are expecting a slight move back (due to the spike in price just recently) before it continues upwards. So short term view is short whilst long on the longer side of things.

Spreads have cut back a bit which means they expect further falls.

 

[Onomj]

I've been hearing about potential price pull backs as well. I don't know how correct they are.

 

[Sean K]

IMF selling $6b of gold reserves to help with the G20 dash for cash.

Short term POG has taken a hit, but medium long term impact?

Anything?

Or, was the POG pullback just a reaction to people jumping on the equities bandwagon?

 

[CapnBirdseye]

My guess is the IMF selloff. Not feeling to good about gold equities in the short to medium term, have sold out of everything except PRU. May well take my gains there fairly soon and sit it out for a while.