Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Gold Price - Where is it heading?

always able to see a positive in Gold, good on you explod at least u follow your dreams....

when it finally reaches 1500 or 5000 please send me a pm that day. I just hope i am still on this earth... ;)

It reached over 1500p/oAU only a month ago??
 
Its already at $218,0000 Zimbabwe Dollar

But we are living in Aus and everything we buy and sell is in AUD so hence when you buy and sell gold its based on the AU gold price. And based on that we hit $1500p/o last month? How does Zimbabwe have anything to do with it?

The U.S gold price could soar to $2000 tommorrow but if the aussie dollar goes from $0.70 against the U.S to $2.00 then it wont make much different in the increase in gold price eh? or doesnt our dollar come into effect for you gold traders?
 
But we are living in Aus and everything we buy and sell is in AUD so hence when you buy and sell gold its based on the AU gold price. And based on that we hit $1500p/o last month? How does Zimbabwe have anything to do with it?

The U.S gold price could soar to $2000 tommorrow but if the aussie dollar goes from $0.70 against the U.S to $2.00 then it wont make much different in the increase in gold price eh? or doesnt our dollar come into effect for you gold traders?

If the scenario you state were to occur it would signal a massive loss of faith in the USD, and I doubt it would be the international reserve currency in which gold is priced.
 
If the scenario you state were to occur it would signal a massive loss of faith in the USD, and I doubt it would be the international reserve currency in which gold is priced.

Well until that day comes theres no need to speculate

Anywayz my point was relating to gold going to 1500p/o or above which i clearly pointed out.
 
But we are living in Aus and everything we buy and sell is in AUD so hence when you buy and sell gold its based on the AU gold price. And based on that we hit $1500p/o last month? How does Zimbabwe have anything to do with it?

The U.S gold price could soar to $2000 tommorrow but if the aussie dollar goes from $0.70 against the U.S to $2.00 then it wont make much different in the increase in gold price eh? or doesnt our dollar come into effect for you gold traders?

But it will sure make my trip to Vagas into a ripper.

Not just the US dollar is going to weaken, the current contraction this time is a world wide thing. Too much debt and too many paper dollars with reducing GDP is taking it all to the edge.
 
But we are living in Aus and everything we buy and sell is in AUD so hence when you buy and sell gold its based on the AU gold price. And based on that we hit $1500p/o last month? How does Zimbabwe have anything to do with it?

The U.S gold price could soar to $2000 tommorrow but if the aussie dollar goes from $0.70 against the U.S to $2.00 then it wont make much different in the increase in gold price eh? or doesnt our dollar come into effect for you gold traders?

sorry mate u can't trade futures in AUD. Most margin trading on gold with cfd is in usd as well.

so if u hold physical yeh it's aud but who short term trades in physical????
 
but who short term trades in physical????

Me ;) but unlike most trading mine is risk free as i purchase scrap which is always at a discount, then i lock in my price with my buyers so im hedged against price swings. More handling yes, and a tad more risk but the reward is well worth it.

Anywayz as short term traders the gold price shouldnt really make a difference, but for long term wealth protection thats a different story.
 
Ho hum. Ascending wedge alert for the USD? Still some time till resolution, both for it & gold, out to August/September, again?
 

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I feel a geoplitical issue will make some sort of impact soon - not sure Pakistan & nuclear are a comfortable juxtaposition? Talk of Israel pre-emptive strikes on Iranian nuke facilities before their US buddies are kicked out of Washington?

Uh Oh!

THE NEXT few months will be crucial in defusing a global terrorist threat that would be even deadlier than the conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq, a leading Washington counter-terrorism expert warns.

David Kilcullen ”” a former Australian army lieutenant colonel who helped devise the US troop surge that revitalised the American campaign in Iraq ”” fears Pakistan is at risk of falling under al-Qaeda control.

If that were to happen, the terrorist group could end up controlling what Dr Kilcullen calls "Talibanistan". "Pakistan is what keeps me awake at night," said Dr Kilcullen, who was a specialist adviser for the Bush administration and is now a consultant to the Obama White House.

"Pakistan has 173 million people and 100 nuclear weapons, an army which is bigger than the American army, and the headquarters of al-Qaeda sitting in two-thirds of the country which the Government does not control."
http://www.theage.com.au/world/west...orist-threat-from-pakistan-20090412-a40m.html
 
Anyone still watching the "NAV tonnes" for SPDR GLD?

I can't make a pretty chart on the mac tonight for some reason, MS Office for Mac is soooo terrible. Can't be bothered going upstairs to use OpenOffice on the linux box.

But you can download the data here:
http://www.spdrgoldshares.com/assets/file/csv/gld_all_data.csv

Anyway, I wanted to point out that on Feb 20 when spot gold hit 1000, the NAV tonnes was 1028.

Since then this number series has not decreased one single gram despite a ~140USD price drop in spot. In fact, currently it sits at 1127, the highest ever!

SPDR GLD is supposed to be the 3rd or 4th largest ETF on the planet now.

Comments appreciated. I am a bit skeptical as to the nature of the holdings, which supposedly now are more than the Swiss National Bank (6th largest in the world). How can they pick up this much physical without causing a dent in the market? Pretty chart tomorrow, hopefully. This one will have to do in the mean-time
 

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Comments appreciated. I am a bit skeptical as to the nature of the holdings, which supposedly now are more than the Swiss National Bank (6th largest in the world). How can they pick up this much physical without causing a dent in the market? Pretty chart tomorrow, hopefully. This one will have to do in the mean-time

Central banks keep it off the books by lending gold to the bullion banks who have to deliver on their shorts. It's a net transfer from previously wealthy to the future wealthy? The books will need a re-balancing to reflect actual physical quantities held by central banks and the bullion banks on the day of reckoning? The official gold inventory of the US has not changed since March 06 - doesn't anyone wonder why?
 
Central banks keep it off the books by lending gold to the bullion banks who have to deliver on their shorts. It's a net transfer from previously wealthy to the future wealthy? The books will need a re-balancing to reflect actual physical quantities held by central banks and the bullion banks on the day of reckoning? The official gold inventory of the US has not changed since March 06 - doesn't anyone wonder why?

But what does that have to do with the nature of GLDs holdings? Unless you are trying to point out that GLD is holding leased physical? Or are you saying they're buying all the sells and taking deliveries on them?

Delivery of physical for Feb and March was high, but not anywhere near as high as it used to be, and I doubt they needed leased gold to deliver on it.
 
Considering that total central bank and privately held gold is about 60,000t, sourcing 100t over a few months is not a problem from where I sit.

Consider that if you were a market maker in the ETFs and the general trend is for them to grow, why would you incur costs in liquidating your shares to settle your OTC sell trades (that offset your buys of ETF shares) when you can just sit on them and sell the shares back to retail investors, also then saving the cost of creating the shares. This would account for some of the "smoothing".
 
Firstly, lets clarify that we are talking about whether the number is reasonable, not about whether they actually have it all physically (I have blogged on this as there are a number of issues with loopholes in the legals of the various ETFs).

Yes, I do not see any problem with an ETF or fund getting or holding 1000t of gold. All that is happening is that because of the ease of the ETFs, investors who would have previously bought and held gold in the OTC market are now doing so on an exchange, making what was previously hidden, visible.

People can lose sight of the fact that there is still circa 29,000t of privately held gold that is not visible. Therefore one should not read too much into the movements of the 1000t pile, just because it is visible.
 
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