Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[arco]

The Edge

Simple solution for displaying charts

Download MWSnap (its free and simple to use).

http://www.snapfiles.com/get/mwsnap.html

Capture the chart, now save your 'snap' to any folder, and then when posting use the forum "Manage attachments" uploader to access the folder. (See the 'additional options panel' in you forum reply window)

Very simple - if you need more help, please ask. A chart will make it easy for others to follow. As per example below......

rgds - arco

.

 

[Whiskers]

Gold might have a tumble back to around the 800 mark...

Yes, I've stuck my neck out and suggested 785ish I think it was... but although I reckon a few gold miners charts look due for a correction too, it's proving a bit resiliant so far.

Arco, you're itchy cloud thingo seems to be pointing south. You got a number in mind?

 

[Trembling Hand]

Oh boy!!

I see...the importance of style over annoying substance.

The addition of charts would have been, simply, the addition
of charts and would not have eliminated a single sentence or
one of the 1,000 words.

Not true. It would have eliminated these for a start

[Apologies for the lack of charts, but that is not
within my limited scope of abilities.]

You go to the trouble of putting together the work why the hell not then put it into a format that is readable?? Most will not discover your undoubted brilliance if they find it hard to read. Very Simple.

 

[cuttlefish]

I see...the importance of style over annoying substance.

The addition of charts would have been, simply, the addition
of charts and would not have eliminated a single sentence or
one of the 1,000 words.

How rude of me to presume effort might prevail over ease.

Easily remedied, good sir.

I actually read it all, but not having a USD gold candlestick chart handy meant a lot of the point was lost on me, so I'd have liked to have seen one in there as well - preferably annotated.

 

[sails]

If they look interesting, I sometimes copy these long, narrow posts into Word and re-format them for my own benefit. I have done this with Edge's recent very long post and, if Edge is OK with it, am happy to post the formatted post with some spelling corrections as highlighted by Word (again for my benefit).

Is that OK with you, Edge?

Edge has some interesting concepts especially in the supply/demand and volume/price areas for those studying these concepts. He certainly puts a lot of effort into his writings.

Although, to keep hitting the enter button after every few words, must make the task more difficult. Wouldn't it be easier to simply let the words automatically wrap the width of the page and then only hit enter a couple of times for a new paragraph? I am mystified... Motorway uses a similar narrow posts - perhaps it is special software???

 

[Cartman]

Edge has some interesting concepts especially in the supply/demand and volume/price areas for those studying these concepts. He certainly puts a lot of effort into his writings.

Motorway uses a similar narrow posts - perhaps it is special software???

i actually found it fine to read but maybe im narrow minded

ps its all right if i dont use capitals and apostrophes isnt it lol ---

 

[bankit]

Gold might have a tumble back to around the 800

Hi Rockon2,

I have a different perspective and have used your chart to show that I feel we are in a channel at the moment.

Time will tell I guess

Bankit

 

[shuei]

for consideration. when will the treasury bonds bubble burst?? and, when it does, where will it push the price of gold??

IMO gold will retrace slightly from where it is now but not much.
the basis for this is simple, the global talk of the treasury bonds bubble of 'about to pop' is on the tip of everyones tongue, which i BELEIVE to be a signal that this global event is just around the corner. When this does occur it will leave only one option, GOLD !!! so pure, so simple. A true haven for all concerned, a place to park when the currency market in the US shats itself due to inflation. GOLD WILL = TRUE MONEY!

Look for the signs and prosper on this monumentous event. I know I will.
Good luck.

 

[arco]

Yes, I've stuck my neck out and suggested 785ish I think it was... but although I reckon a few gold miners charts look due for a correction too, it's proving a bit resiliant so far.

Arco, you're itchy cloud thingo seems to be pointing south. You got a number in mind?

Complex situation ATM - The current move could be an A,B,C correction.

So, just highlighting possible short term trending/trading possibilities (H4 chart)

Therefore, we could prepare for a potential reversal pattern in the grey box which may then form a bullish Gartley, or alternatively keep watching for a break above current resistance.

Can re-assess if/once the PA gets into the grey box.

 

[refined silver]

Re when will inflation hit.

Here are a couple of L/T charts up to Nov 08. You can see what has happened to the money base, but note that the spike hasn't yet shown up in the cash in circulation just yet. That's coming...

 

[refined silver]

Now if you want an armageddon type chart, here is a chart of bank borrowings from the Fed Reserve from 1919 to Nov 2007. The large spike in 90/91 was the Savings and Loans Crisis which saw the failure of 747 banks.

 

[refined silver]

Now here is the same chart but including the last 12 months - from 1919 to Nov 2008. Note the previous spikes have all disappeared...!!

Aaah Maaaa!!

Just trying to tease some thoughts... If the previous chart showed the stress on the banking system which saw 747 banks so insolvent they went bankrupt, what does that say about the current stress in the system and the current level of insolvency??? (Due to the quadrillion dollar OTC derivatives mountain meltdown)

 

[arco]

Now here is the same chart but including the last 12 months - from 1919 to Nov 2008. Note the previous spikes have all disappeared...!!

Aaah Maaaa!!

Just trying to tease some thoughts... If the previous chart showed the stress on the banking system which saw 747 banks so insolvent they went bankrupt, what does that say about the current stress in the system and the current level of insolvency??? (Due to the quadrillion dollar OTC derivatives mountain meltdown)

No worry, The US can print some more money and buy anything that fails. Simple solution.

 

[The Edge]

Sunday 4 January 2009

It just occurred to me while looking at a spot price for gold that it would be
unlikely anyone would have a US daily chart, to which I referenced, and
render my post useless.

Having neither the skills, however minimal the requirement, nor the inclination
to attempt posting a chart, it did not seem unreasonable for anyone to simply
look at their own chart and follow along with my post. It turns out I was wrong in that assumption, and for that, I owe a blanket apology for my lack of consideration in realizing the situation I created.

Apologies to all.

I am even posting to the end of the line, if that makes any difference than the way I typically post.

It is 1 a.m. here, so I will see if I can get the two charts referenced posted sometime tomorrow because the points made are important in understanding how informative is market activity, as revealed in charts.

Let me also extend a particular apology to Trembling Hand for taking acception to his response, which I now see in a different light, for the fault
lies with me.

Thank you.




I see upon review of my post that I only got the mechanics half right. Even something as simple as that presents difficulty for me.

 

[nunthewiser]

Sunday 4 January 2009

It just occurred to me while looking at a spot price for gold that it would be
unlikely anyone would have a US daily chart, to which I referenced, and
render my post useless.

Having neither the skills, however minimal the requirement, nor the inclination
to attempt posting a chart, it did not seem unreasonable for anyone to simply
look at their own chart and follow along with my post. It turns out I was wrong in that assumption, and for that, I owe a blanket apology for my lack of consideration in realizing the situation I created.

Apologies to all.

I am even posting to the end of the line, if that makes any difference than the way I typically post.

It is 1 a.m. here, so I will see if I can get the two charts referenced posted sometime tomorrow because the points made are important in understanding how informative is market activity, as revealed in charts.

Let me also extend a particular apology to Trembling Hand for taking acception to his response, which I now see in a different light, for the fault
lies with me.

Thank you.




I see upon review of my post that I only got the mechanics half right. Even something as simple as that presents difficulty for me.

I
wouldnt
let
it
worry
ya
mate

avaniceday

 

[The Edge]

Apparently too slow to catch my error and edit"

> Let me also extend a particular apology to Trembling Hand for taking acception to his response

That should read exception, not acception. The hour was late.

 

[The Edge]

Sunday 4 January 2009

Being Sunday, I have not yet been able to get copies of the two gold charts I had referenced.


Sails:
If it will be helpful, by all means, repost what I posted. I am curious to see the difference.


Cuttlefish:

When I said I do not follow gold stocks, and most mentioned were around $10, or less, you followed up with mention of NCM, having gone from 17 to 34. While waiting for my charts, let me address NCM. It is Austrailian, so the only chart I could find was from BigCharts.com. It is lacking in volume detail, too bunched, but similar observations can be made.

[One will have to get their own chart to follow this line of analysis.]


If you have a position, it may be better that you do not read this so as not to influence you, one way of the other. NCM has outperfomed gold, itself since the rally from the Oct lows. Gold has yet to exceed its last swing high, while NCM did go above its Oct swing high, showing relative strength, a plus.

In my earlier post, I drew the conclusion to be short gold from last Monday's close, as the first signal, and/or again on Firday's close, with a stop above 900. Let us jump to Friday's close for NCM... several factors converge.

Implicit in any anlysis I advance is that the markets are organic, they evolve as a result of influences, ultimately all coming from human input, and as a consequence, they are psychologically driven. No one has to agree. I am merely qualifying all remarks in the gathering of factual information provided by the market itself, in the form of market activity as depicted in charts. Trading is an art, not a science that can be distilled into artificial mechanics, no matter how sophisticated the effort.

It's close on Friday, 2 January, was slightly under mid-range of that day's bar, and just under Thursday's close, both occurring at the high of NCM's current upswing. Those are facts. What is the underlying logic behind those facts? What is the story of this market?

Note further that the current swing high for NCM is at 35, strong resistance when you look at previous failed rallies back in April, May, and a weaker July. Also, in March, price gapped down through 35, adding more to the significance of that price.

The fact that price closed under mid-range on Friday's bar says that sellers were present. In the battle between supply and demand, the close decides the winner. Here, sellers [supply] won...a fact. Another fact is that price closed lower than the previous day...a sign of weakness, [otherwise, the close would have been higher than that of the previous day.]

Now, consider the logic behind these facts gathered, so far. The price of NCM is at a swing high, which also happens to be strong resistance, and as just observed, at a place where selling has appeared, just the opposite of what one would expect of a market undergoing a rally. If the market is strong, would you agree that signs of buying, [demand], should be showing up?

To emphasize the apparent weakness, and seeming lack of demand, look at volume. As the market rallied into a strong resistance area, volume dropped to its lowest level on the entire chart. From that, it is logical to infer that demand buyers are unwilling, or unable to participate in this rally.

Once again, all we are doing is gathering factual information, the activity the market is exhibiting. We are not done.

See the wide range bar with a high end close, I am guessing from Monday, 22 December? A sign of strength. But wait, look at the volume activity attendant with that day. A large volume spike. Generally, when you see an unusual spike in volume, it can mean the end of a rally/trend, depending upon where it apears. This particular volume spike occurs at last July's failure rally, and, just under the identified strong reisistance at 35. Caveat emptor.

Now, this is a bit more detailed. From that day, 2 weeks ago, note the price activity, [don't forget volume] that gets NCM to where it closed on Friday, just past. It took seven more trading days to barely make a new high, with so little volume behind that labored rally....and we already addresed the character and quality of the end of this rally, so far. The point to note is that the rally to get to Friday's high took a lot of time from the bar that we thought could be strength, but apparently is not, and there was no conviction in volume.

This also fits in with the analysis of gold itself, as commented previously and independently of this chart. Both are exhibiting signs of selling activity at a point where buyers should be in control.

Given that facts just gathered, and applying some logic, all describing the overall market activity in the span covered, it seems to me, at least, that the market is telling a story. When you consider that the market is comprised of every possible participant that has made a buy/sell determination, that is powerful information to have.

Could the deduction be wrong?

Of course. Maybe I built in a bias in thinking from the start, and I am jumping the gun. That happens. Keep in mind, there was zero consideration given to mechanical devises, like moving averages, stochastics, RSI, Elliot Wave, all attempts to capture the market in a square box. Somethimes they work, and I guess that is what keeps their appeal to people trying to capture lightening in a bottle. There was no consideration to what news might have been going on. Hell, take away the identity of the underlying stock, and what difference would it make?

It could be that the activity in Gaza may prompt a buying spike. That is what stops are for. Nothing is 100%. All we want is an edge, an advantage in making a buy or sell decision. Should the market spike higher, it does nothing to alter the underlying character of the market, and it is likely to prove short-lived. If not, if price works higher, that is okay. The loss for being short was reasonable, and taking 10 trades with stories like this, or any variation of the market acivity theme, will lead to success.

If there is no spike, and gold does continue lower from Friday, the market advertized itself. All that was necessary was a gathering of facts.

Don't anybody throw stones at me for not providing a chart, or for the length of the post. Go to BigChats.com, put in NCM for symbol, and when it comes back not found, go to country and click on Austrailia, and you should get a chart to compare with this narrative.

As to its length, there are no short-cuts in gathering facts.

I trust this effort to be more successful?

The Edge

 

[Rockon2]

Hi Rockon2,

I have a different perspective and have used your chart to show that I feel we are in a channel at the moment.

Time will tell I guess

Bankit

Very Possible Bankit...... and time certainly will tell.

Looking at a shorter time frame Gold might jump up

 

[arco]

Sunday 4 January 2009

Go to BigChats.com, put in NCM for symbol, and when it comes back not found, go to country and click on Austrailia, and you should get a chart to compare with this narrative.

The Edge

I cant find that - do you have to be a member?

 

[The Edge]

www.bigcharts.com