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Gold Price - Where is it heading?
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arco
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Thanks. I was trying NCM.AX
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Hi Edge - it would look the same as what you have just posted with the lines extending to full width of the page. Probably no need to repost unless someone else would like it.
Certainly appreciate the effort you put into your detailed posts and agree there's not much you can do with the length!
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Cheers Edge for your thoughts - I've followed it with the chart alongside this time - your analysis seems to make sense and is consistent with how I've been starting to view volume/price of late from intraday chart observations and applying some of the stuff learnt from people on here and other sources.
I still see the strong up moves in NCM and LGL - both reasonably large cap gold companies with strong upside and, importantly, also downside leverage to the gold price as a positive. Institutional buying of these implies to me a willingness to take on a leveraged gold price risk at a time where the market already has a lot of inherent risks. This gives me some confidence that some out there are seeing recent gold price strength as the start of a bull phase in the gold price.
But on the shorter term analysis, both NCM and LGL are reaching points where there is significant historical congestion and resistance. Given the recent strong rally this seems like a reasonable breathing point *if* the gold price also has a breather.
I still see the potential, as I have all year, to be caught out by trying too hard to trade in and out of any gold rally - this is because I view gold as a USD short (and a short on currency in general) and so if the USD suddenly free-falls then the sharpness and strength of the upside swings in gold could be impressive. In some ways the recent strength of NCM and other stocks supports this sort of view - anyone with their eye off the ball has missed out on a 100% rally already.
At the moment my view is that price pullbacks or volatility collapses in these stocks present re-entry opportunities.
I'm primarily focused on LGL, but because I am taking short/medium term positions in these I'll refrain from discussing too much about the potential future short term direction of specific stocks because it does tend to have the potential to cloud/interfere with my own independant judgement/viewpoint.
arco
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BentRod
ZZZZzzzzZZZZzzzzzzzz
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Nice job Arco.
I took the inside bar setup on the hourly @ around 861 for another stab at a run lower.
Real tight stops on this one though so will see what happens.
I took the inside bar setup on the hourly @ around 861 for another stab at a run lower.
Real tight stops on this one though so will see what happens.
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wow great signals arco... it fell hard right through, but i was at the gym so i missed it 
Whiskers
It's a small world
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Yeah, nice job Arco. I'd have done pretty much the same... but I want to change trading to a different entity and am having a delay getting it set up. bugga.
Looking at the USDX I'd say it could easily kick back up around the .84+ again. I think the euro is in a similar but reciprical pattern.
That would likely send the POG quite a bit lower. The question then is, which way is the greater trend developing.
Looking at the USDX I'd say it could easily kick back up around the .84+ again. I think the euro is in a similar but reciprical pattern.
That would likely send the POG quite a bit lower. The question then is, which way is the greater trend developing.
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arco
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arco
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Tuesday 6 January 2009
A few added thoughts on the gold. Someone may be sending me a few charts
to copy that go along with previous post 6036, page 302, when I explained how
market activity led to the conclusion to short gold on Monday, 29 December, and
again on Friday, 2 January.
This type of analysis is not standard chart fare, but an argument could be made
that it is fairly accurate. It also addresses a common question about charts'
"predicting." There was no prediction involved, jus a gathering of facts that
would lead to a logical conclusion based on the facts, and the conclusion would
lead to the next likely market direction.
One of the most important considerations in any market analysis is knowledge
of the market trend, for that is the prevailing direction. Simply by assessing
where a turn may occur, or the direction to continue, "knowing" the likely
direction of price has already been established by the trend, so "predicting"
price behavior is not the correct way of expressing what may develop.
While it is easier to determine the likely direction for price to take, what is
impossible to know it the WAY in which price will develop. In the current gold
example, price has dropped about $25-$30 from last Friday. Who knew?!
Price could just as easily crept lower, a few dollars at a time. THAT is what
cannot be know in advance, the HOW of future market development. By
adhering to the trend, momentum is the "wind behind a trader's back."
The results from any buy/sell decision are really just symptoms of the chosen
process. Consideration of the process of deciding when to buy or sell
is certainly more important than the results that follow. The same kind of
results were shown in NCM, a sell off after the gathering of facts, post 6056, p 303.
I will not address NCM out of respect for Cuttlefish having an interest in gold
stocks, and where I have none.
Cheers.
A few added thoughts on the gold. Someone may be sending me a few charts
to copy that go along with previous post 6036, page 302, when I explained how
market activity led to the conclusion to short gold on Monday, 29 December, and
again on Friday, 2 January.
This type of analysis is not standard chart fare, but an argument could be made
that it is fairly accurate. It also addresses a common question about charts'
"predicting." There was no prediction involved, jus a gathering of facts that
would lead to a logical conclusion based on the facts, and the conclusion would
lead to the next likely market direction.
One of the most important considerations in any market analysis is knowledge
of the market trend, for that is the prevailing direction. Simply by assessing
where a turn may occur, or the direction to continue, "knowing" the likely
direction of price has already been established by the trend, so "predicting"
price behavior is not the correct way of expressing what may develop.
While it is easier to determine the likely direction for price to take, what is
impossible to know it the WAY in which price will develop. In the current gold
example, price has dropped about $25-$30 from last Friday. Who knew?!
Price could just as easily crept lower, a few dollars at a time. THAT is what
cannot be know in advance, the HOW of future market development. By
adhering to the trend, momentum is the "wind behind a trader's back."
The results from any buy/sell decision are really just symptoms of the chosen
process. Consideration of the process of deciding when to buy or sell
is certainly more important than the results that follow. The same kind of
results were shown in NCM, a sell off after the gathering of facts, post 6056, p 303.
I will not address NCM out of respect for Cuttlefish having an interest in gold
stocks, and where I have none.
Cheers.
Tuesday 6 January 2009
While watching gold intraday, note was made that once was low was established,
no further downside progress ensued. That was taken as a sign that support
may be coming in, particularly since the volume picked up around the lows,
volume that held price and did not push it lower. At that point, it would have been
wise to have placed a protective buy stop, on half position, just above the
established trading range.
Not having watched the market after that, I saw price rallied strongly by the close,
and for certain, half position was covered, with a stop lowered a few dollars
above the week ago Monday high. These are the kinds of observations one
would watch for, regarding market activity. The initial assessment to be short
remains intact, however, the strength demonstrated has to be respected, for there is
no guarantee that the highs from last week will hold.
That is my contribution for identifying market activity, gathering surrounding
facts, and then drawing logical conclusions from the information that harmonizes
with the trend. In the instant gold, the trend is down on the larger time frames,
and less so on the daily chart. This is an excellent example of why identifying
the trend for the time frame being traded is so critical. Were the daily chart
more convincingly defined to be in a down trend, a defensive posture would
not be so necessary. Where the daily trend could be taken as sideways, then
the short position is less secure.
Know the trend in the time frame under which decisions are being made. Also
know the other time frame trends for possible direction if the smaller time frame
is less defined. This cannot be stressed enough in employing one's strategy.
Also, follow your instincts, more, act on them. The intraday observation I saw
about gold holding was something that should have been acted on immediately.
I knew it, but did not act on it. Give back resulted. My trading diary reminds
me of that, but I chose to do something else, at the time and right up to the close.
It is a great idea to keep a trading diary for each trade...when, why,
what followed, what was the reponse, how was the trade managed,? etc.
Cheers!
While watching gold intraday, note was made that once was low was established,
no further downside progress ensued. That was taken as a sign that support
may be coming in, particularly since the volume picked up around the lows,
volume that held price and did not push it lower. At that point, it would have been
wise to have placed a protective buy stop, on half position, just above the
established trading range.
Not having watched the market after that, I saw price rallied strongly by the close,
and for certain, half position was covered, with a stop lowered a few dollars
above the week ago Monday high. These are the kinds of observations one
would watch for, regarding market activity. The initial assessment to be short
remains intact, however, the strength demonstrated has to be respected, for there is
no guarantee that the highs from last week will hold.
That is my contribution for identifying market activity, gathering surrounding
facts, and then drawing logical conclusions from the information that harmonizes
with the trend. In the instant gold, the trend is down on the larger time frames,
and less so on the daily chart. This is an excellent example of why identifying
the trend for the time frame being traded is so critical. Were the daily chart
more convincingly defined to be in a down trend, a defensive posture would
not be so necessary. Where the daily trend could be taken as sideways, then
the short position is less secure.
Know the trend in the time frame under which decisions are being made. Also
know the other time frame trends for possible direction if the smaller time frame
is less defined. This cannot be stressed enough in employing one's strategy.
Also, follow your instincts, more, act on them. The intraday observation I saw
about gold holding was something that should have been acted on immediately.
I knew it, but did not act on it. Give back resulted. My trading diary reminds
me of that, but I chose to do something else, at the time and right up to the close.
It is a great idea to keep a trading diary for each trade...when, why,
what followed, what was the reponse, how was the trade managed,? etc.
Cheers!
Sean K
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I'm feeling harmonized, The Edge. Cheers
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Edge - cheers for the posts - interesting to read - in relation to the comment above - please don't let my earlier comments stop yourself or anyone else discussing specific gold stocks. My main purpose was that I will attempt to refrain from discussing my own views on the specific stocks I'm trading with short/medium term positions. I've found that when I express opinions about stocks I'm trading this can affect my own psycchology around the trade.
For example if I post a comment that I think stock XYZ is more likely to congest or fall than push on with a rise, and then in the next hour or day I see something occur that changes that viewpoint - I may tend to still want to cling to the earlier 'publicly posted' viewpoint psychologically in order to 'prove myself right' etc. Or alternately I may not act on new information out of some sense of responsibility for not wanting to acting in a way that is not accordant with an earlier publicly expressed viewpoint etc. etc.
Possibly a topic in its own right - how does publicly expressing a viewpoint on a stock affect trading psychology around it. (actually I've seen WaneL post a subsection of Murphy's Law about posting live's trades - tends to ring true some of the time).
This is a very good point and its something I've realised I need to take on board more given that the options positions I'm trading are quite long term trend positions, but I'm trading them with mostly short dated series and adjusting short term around volatility and short term direction. I've got strategies for dealing with spikes, congestions and counter trends but I could work more on structuring my viewpoint on timeframe and hone the strategies and particularly sizing more specifically to timeframe scales.
Tuesday 6 January 2009
> Possibly a topic in its own right - how does publicly expressing a viewpoint
> on a stock affect trading psychology around it.
No issue is ever too small if it leads to improvement in some manner. As a standing
rule, I never discuss trades I am in for the simple reason that whatever I say
may be rationalization to support my position v taking a purely objective POV,
as though that were easy in itself.
That is what happened to me this morning. I looked at two day's trading activity and saw
decent volume, but price not continuing down, in fact holding.
That was the message of the market, but I chose to give it more room in deference
to what I had been posting here. I ignored my instinct in favor of making a
point, and as a consequence, missed making a more salient point at lower levels.
I allowed a good trade to become mediocre, at best.
re: knowing the trend being traded,
> This is a very good point and its something I've realised I need to take on
> board more given that the options positions I'm trading are quite long term
> trend positions, but I'm trading them with mostly short dated series and
> adjusting short term around volatility and short term direction. I've got
> strategies for dealing with spikes, congestions and counter trends but I
> could work more on structuring my viewpoint on timeframe and hone the
> strategies and particularly sizing more specifically to timeframe scales.
If you were to take a look at each time frame, starting with a Quarterly, and
assessing the trend, as well as support/resistance points for each, and then
focus most on your chosen time frame, you are likely to benefit from the spikes
and congestion areas on which you rely for action.
Once you have a full picture of all time frames, it takes little time to keep an
awareness of broader support/resistance as the smaller time frames unfold within
their scope. The greater the flow you see, the better the odds of a favorable
outcome, all things of which are you aware, but perhaps not as organized as would
benefit your style. Having an edge in every trade should be a given without
compromise.
Just a few added thoughts.
Continued success to you.
> Possibly a topic in its own right - how does publicly expressing a viewpoint
> on a stock affect trading psychology around it.
No issue is ever too small if it leads to improvement in some manner. As a standing
rule, I never discuss trades I am in for the simple reason that whatever I say
may be rationalization to support my position v taking a purely objective POV,
as though that were easy in itself.
That is what happened to me this morning. I looked at two day's trading activity and saw
decent volume, but price not continuing down, in fact holding.
That was the message of the market, but I chose to give it more room in deference
to what I had been posting here. I ignored my instinct in favor of making a
point, and as a consequence, missed making a more salient point at lower levels.
I allowed a good trade to become mediocre, at best.
re: knowing the trend being traded,
> This is a very good point and its something I've realised I need to take on
> board more given that the options positions I'm trading are quite long term
> trend positions, but I'm trading them with mostly short dated series and
> adjusting short term around volatility and short term direction. I've got
> strategies for dealing with spikes, congestions and counter trends but I
> could work more on structuring my viewpoint on timeframe and hone the
> strategies and particularly sizing more specifically to timeframe scales.
If you were to take a look at each time frame, starting with a Quarterly, and
assessing the trend, as well as support/resistance points for each, and then
focus most on your chosen time frame, you are likely to benefit from the spikes
and congestion areas on which you rely for action.
Once you have a full picture of all time frames, it takes little time to keep an
awareness of broader support/resistance as the smaller time frames unfold within
their scope. The greater the flow you see, the better the odds of a favorable
outcome, all things of which are you aware, but perhaps not as organized as would
benefit your style. Having an edge in every trade should be a given without
compromise.
Just a few added thoughts.
Continued success to you.
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Another one of the technical possibilities, a long term chart, but not necessarily a long term wait.
Attachments
Wednesday 8 January 2009
Just to button down my monologue on gold re defining and then acting on market
activity, a protective stop has been placed on the other half of the short position
from Monday. While I said the first signal to go short was a week ago Monday,
and the second on Friday past, I did not take action on that first signal.
Maximizing gains is less important to me than is minimizing risk. It provides
staying power.
While it seems gold could continue to work lower, I see its inability to push
through the high 830s. It may yet give way? Plus, I am mindful that gold was one
of the few performers for 2008 that actually closed higher on the year.
Cheers.
Just to button down my monologue on gold re defining and then acting on market
activity, a protective stop has been placed on the other half of the short position
from Monday. While I said the first signal to go short was a week ago Monday,
and the second on Friday past, I did not take action on that first signal.
Maximizing gains is less important to me than is minimizing risk. It provides
staying power.
While it seems gold could continue to work lower, I see its inability to push
through the high 830s. It may yet give way? Plus, I am mindful that gold was one
of the few performers for 2008 that actually closed higher on the year.
Cheers.
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mmmmm my favorite, the good ol'cup and handle
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explod
explod
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The resistance of $US840 in late 07 now forms part of strong support and all other indications to me say it will hold these levels. We are now looking for a weekly close above US880 to 890 for the next upleg to commence.
IMHO it will be soon and as I have maintained for eight months now, after the new administration takes over.
Jimmy Carter got the cuts for the sins of his predecessors and Obama will get the same. Stand back for the bad news after 20th instant.
IMHO it will be soon and as I have maintained for eight months now, after the new administration takes over.
Jimmy Carter got the cuts for the sins of his predecessors and Obama will get the same. Stand back for the bad news after 20th instant.
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