Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[amory]

Not saying the Fed will save the world - but they obviously know what they're doing or their economy would have collapsed along with the credit crisis. as it is, there are glimmers of hope emerging in the US & which are having a beneficial effect on our market as well. how they'll do it, I've got no idea, but do it they will.

where will Gold be going? look at a recent chart of it & you tell me!

even during the current miniboom - yes, RIO BHP WPL CSL etc, even the most unlikely ERA - have been outperforming the best golds by miles!

Jesse Livermore said: Markets are never wrong, opinions are. Follow the trend.

just as an afterthought: there is some weakness creeping into the USDollar. an unexpected twist perhaps? arguing with you guys is fun because the POG & the market are proving me right, but I don't intend to argue with the market if & when.....

 

[Kauri]

just as an afterthought: there is some weakness creeping into the USDollar. an unexpected twist perhaps? arguing with you guys is fun because the POG & the market are proving me right, but I don't intend to argue with the market if & when.....

weakness may creep in... but I for one am not seeing it yet???

Cheers
..........Kauri

 

[Whiskers]

weakness may creep in... but I for one am not seeing it yet???

Cheers
..........Kauri

Me for two...

Broken up short term trend line.

I still see it getting into the 80's pretty soon.

 

[amory]

Quite so, Kauri, Whiskers! and I was only throwing the observation in (regarding the dollar) because that's the ONLY hope gold has got, if it's EVER to outperform: a total collapse of the dollar.

you don't see it & I don't. as for the others, keep your fingers crossed! patience is a virtue.

 

[explod]

Me for two...

Broken up short term trend line.

I still see it getting into the 80's pretty soon.

Maybe, but for how long. For traders yes, investors are distinctly different, the longer term fundamental shifts are the focus. My thesis needs to be viewed in that context.

In fact I used to sit in front of a screen a lot once and day trade, and very successfully too. I make less now but I sleep better and the blood pressure has reduced, more important to me now. However the experience itself was well worth it. Having said that the reading and study required of fundamental economics takes a great deal more time and work.

Though it is but a small component of the financial world, greed based on old habits and tradition will run the gold price up.

Short sighted comments (and not singling you out Whiskers), that often creep in on this thread at times, indicate little appreaciation of what is really going on underneath.

 

[Whiskers]

Oil's just started another dive towards 100 and the USD index up another notch or two, but hummm.... according to my calculator a technical target is 797, but I think gold should pretty well hold above 800.

By my reckonening, oil will start a significant corrective phase shortly, (by time period, not price) which will help gold push back up into the low 800's again.

 

[Whiskers]

The falling AUD and POO are playing into the Aus mining industry hands nicely.

I'm tipping that gap to widen as the USD strengthens quite a bit further and gold moves more to the mid 800's in USD's over the next few weeks.

 

[BentRod]

Stop moved to $822.

 

[BentRod]

but I think gold should pretty well hold above 800.

Would make a nice Buy with a real tight stop now then?

 

[Whiskers]

Would make a nice Buy with a real tight stop now then?

Yeah, if I'm right, this is just about the end of the corrective abc wave 2. Wave 3 should get back into the mid 800's.

It'll never be this cheap again, bearing in mind it's just kicking off a cycle III.

 

[amory]

Yeah, if I'm right, this is just about the end of the corrective abc wave 2. Wave 3 should get back into the mid 800's.

It'll never be this cheap again, bearing in mind it's just kicking off a cycle III.

is it really? well that's good to know. have no fear, I won't attempt to bash your precious commodity. it's doing a first-class job of doing just that, all by itself alone!

 

[explod]

is it really? well that's good to know. have no fear, I won't attempt to bash your precious commodity. it's doing a first-class job of doing just that, all by itself alone!

Its up 20% for the last 12 months, which is about average per annum since 2001.

The only bashing is Planet Wall Street off market when all the traders are on long weekend holidays.

 

[cuttlefish]

So oil is down because the US and global economy is looking like it is going to be slow and thus there will be 'demand destruction'.

On that basis the Dow rose initially until realising ... hang on ... if the economy is a basket case then maybe thats not so good for stocks after all.

And the US dollar is rising because the US economy, right now, appears to be less of a basket case than the european and japanese economies, even though the US is at the epicentre of the current credit crisis.

So everything is going down - oil, gold,commodities, non-US currencies- except the USD which is rising because:

a) The government has printed a lot more of them and extra supply always creates extra demand
b) The US economy is a great place to invest right now due to its strong growth and low levels of debt and so is attracting the bulk of investment funds.

I get confused as to which one it is.

On the technical side I think this test of this support around 790ish is important - if it can hold this that would be nice but I still see it as more likely to do a final capitulation fall through it to find new support at around 720-730 sort of range (possibly even overshooting briefly down to 690 even) before building into the next long upward trend.

The plus side for Australian gold producers is that because gold's fall is largely a result of the USD rising, the AUD/USD exchange rate will mean the AUD gold price will still remain relatively strong.

 

[amory]

<< On the technical side I think this test of this support around 790ish is important - if it can hold this that would be nice but I still see it as more likely to do a final capitulation fall through it to find new support at around 720-730 sort of range (possibly even overshooting briefly down to 690 even) before building into the next long upward trend. >>

this being the anniversary of the Japanese attack on Darwin in 1942, it is only fitting that one should draw some parallels. the fall of Singapore & other outposts of empire, that took no time at all. but "the next long upward trend" where the allied forces regained territory lost, is that what you've got in mind for Gold, Cuttlefish? I can just see the POG & its devotees dragging themselves, their faith sorely tested by sickness & deprivation along some Kokoda track for years to come....

 

[cuttlefish]

Yes if it breaches the current support levels and capitulates to those lower levels I'd consider the 'back' of the current short term bullish leg(i.e. the past 18month or so rally) largely broken and it would resume a slower and more steady rise driven by fundamentals (primarily rising input costs causing falling supply). In that scenario it might even be years before reaching a new USD high (AUD high still a possibility though depending on exchange rates).


But it hasn't yet breached the support around the 790ish range so at this point the resumption of a rally into new highs in the next 6 to 12 months is still a possibility imo.

And if at any stage if the USD finds itself an elevator to go down on then gold could rise equally quickly and dramatically upwards as a counter to the USD plunge.

(in summary ... up, down or sideways

 

[amory]

<< And if at any stage if the USD finds itself an elevator to go down on then gold could rise equally quickly and dramatically upwards as a counter to the USD plunge.>>

Then & only then! anything else is dreams & unrelated to the hard reality. like refusing to believe that a beautiful relationship is over once & for all.

 

[Whiskers]

is it really?

Yes indeed! Just follow this space.

well that's good to know. have no fear, I won't attempt to bash your precious commodity. it's doing a first-class job of doing just that, all by itself alone!

How so Amory?

I have no emotional attachment to gold or any investment instrument for that matter.

As many have said it's the ultimate, alternate or defacto real currency in the world or maybe just some scarce dirt to make jewellery and thats just how I treat it. I follow it's value closely as part of a strategy of tracking the present and future value of my investments that are affected by it's value.

The preciousness for me is in the quality of life that successful investing in any instrument brings.

 

[amory]

hi Whiskers!

<< The preciousness for me is in the quality of life that successful investing in any instrument brings. >>

I can appreciate that sentiment. but wouldn't it help if someone was to point out to the POG that it's racing hellbent in the wrong direction? the way it cleared the 800 mark without so much as a sideways glance ...

 

[explod]

hi Whiskers!

<< The preciousness for me is in the quality of life that successful investing in any instrument brings. >>

I can appreciate that sentiment. but wouldn't it help if someone was to point out to the POG that it's racing hellbent in the wrong direction? the way it cleared the 800 mark without so much as a sideways glance ...

For the second time today, I would point out that gold is up 20% since this time last year and this is how it has behaved since 2001 and there is no reason to believe it will change that behaviour. In fact it has had a larger correction than this around 2006.

So address that or get off your horse

 

[amory]

Nick Radge - The Chartist - sees the POG down to seven hundred easy, even an eventual six hundred not outside the realm of possibility & he backs it up with EW theory. looks like I am not alone in my bearish outlook any more. but if you want to fight a rearguard battle, be my guest. only that this is not a correction any more, it's a rout.

the 20% increase by the way, is not impressive compared to just about any other commodities. yes I know, gold is the alternative currency to the fiat-currency. that'll be the day!