Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[Whiskers]

Does that mean your bearish Gold then Whiskers??

No way mate. Well, not unless you want to try to clip a little short off something near 843/4 in the next few days.

Whiskers, what about the 'maybe $860'?

Does this mean you are going to claim you were exactly right on the $845 prediction, even though you gave two possible numbers...

Just wondering how this prediction success game works...

Nah, not really kennas. I'll refer to the XAO thread where I just explained my motives which are mainly to put a bit of a dent in the tide of negativity about the future of the Aus market and potential to reasonably predict the market (if one puts in enough work) and give some hope to the average person that there are good trading and investment oppertunities about.

Not very optermistic about 860 now, the upper range of my target, unless Gustav or something else springs a surprise.

Basically I'm still thinking oil down a little and tending to consolidate or in EW lingo sort out a minor correction for awhile and gold likewise consolidate in the range of 810 to 843/4 before moving up again later.

But since the fall of oil and the improving outlook for the US economy will put downward pressure on gold, the other side of the coin that keeps it supported is the supply (of new production) issue which is rather unclear, but I'm thinking is going to only get worse for some time yet. I don't see much coming onto the market from those rather covert Reserve Bank sales.

How do ya think this'll fare as a investment newsletter subscription or news columnist! Gotta be better than some out there eh!

 

[Sean K]

How do ya think this'll fare as a investment newsletter subscription or news columnist! Gotta be better than some out there eh!

I'm not sure how many people would listen to a house cat.

Maybe you should upgrade to a larger feline..... lol


Rates and USD perception are the flavour of the month with it's influence on POG.

Even the Georgia thing, on top of everything else, can't get a decent rally going.


'Sell every rally' as gold loses glitter
August 30, 2008 - 8:20AM

Gold fell, capping the biggest monthly decline since April 2004, as the US dollar climbed against the euro, eroding the appeal of the metal as an alternative investment.

The US dollar headed for the biggest monthly gain since the European currency began trading in 1999. Gold generally moves in tandem with the euro. The metal has tumbled 19% from a record $US1,033.90 an ounce on March 17, partly because the Federal Reserve ended a series of reductions in benchmark borrowing costs.

 

[explod]

Selling this week in gold was
provided by the funds who
were busy adding to existing
shorts with the result that
their net long position
continues to shrink and is
now the lowest it has been in
nearly a year.
Commercials actually added
a considerable number of
new longs, 9,315 to be exact
with the bullion banks adding
only 1,080 new shorts. My
guess is that it was the
bullion banks who capped
gold in the latter portion of
the week as it neared $850.
With the very low speculative
interest in the long side of
gold, any change in the
technicals that would trigger
computerized system buying
would bring in a great deal of
money that has been sitting
on the sidelines in gold.
If you examine a monthly
chart of gold you will see that
the last time the opposing
players were near current
position levels at the end of
August 2007, gold was
trading near $675. The next
month, September, it
commenced a run that took it
above $1000 in 6 month's
time. Gold needs a spark to
set it off.

From Don Dinachi via Jim Sinclair's webpage.

Looking very close to a big change one way or the other. The next week or so may be very interesting indeed as the optimistic messages/Massages) are becoming a tad unrealistic now.

 

[bvbfan]

Hi amory, were you around Share Cafe a couple of years ago? Good to see you here.

In regard to $1.80, that's a nice guess.

But doesn't seem to correlate to any FA or TA that I can imagine.

Is that from a crystal ball, or tea leaves?

Ah, you also might want to make sure discussion of stocks go in the relevant stock thread. LGL has one, just play around with the search function.

Cheers!
kennas

kennas you know amory is gr_basher don't you?

Amazing how one person can get himself ignored on 3 different forums, must take some real effort to achieve that!!!

 

[Whiskers]

kennas you know amory is gr_basher don't you?

Amazing how one person can get himself ignored on 3 different forums, must take some real effort to achieve that!!!

LOL.

So you've seen a bit of him too eh!

 

[Kauri]

LOL.

So you've seen a bit of him too eh!

Apparently an author as well??


Jeers
............Kauri

 

[Mofra]

Australian Gold Output at 18 year lows

http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,27753,24273531-14334,00.html

AUSTRALIAN gold production dropped to an 18-year low in 2007-08.
And this is amid soaring costs linked to record-high oil prices and a gas plant explosion in Western Australia.

According to a survey released yesterday by mining consultants Surbiton Associates, gold output totalled 232 tonnes - worth about $7.2 billion at current prices - last financial year.

That is the lowest production since 1989-90 and a hefty 27 per cent down on the record levels of a decade ago.

It follows a 12 per cent drop in gold production during the March quarter, as miners reduced their average grades to recover more gold over the life of the mine and take advantage of high gold prices.

Although production edged up again by 2 tonnes or 3 per cent to 55 tonnes in the three months ended June 30, the sector was held back from a full recovery by rocketing energy costs.

Surbiton director Sandra Close said higher energy prices were clearly contributing to the cost pressures felt by gold miners.

"While you can't draw too many conclusions from just one quarter's figures, there is cause for concern," she said. "Two of the gold sector's real challenges are cost containment and exploration spending."

Western Australia - which produces about three-quarters of the nation's gold - was especially hard hit by record energy and fuel costs in the June quarter.

The Varanus Island pipeline explosion cut off gas supplies to many mines, forcing producers to switch to costly and hard-to-come-by diesel to power their operations.

At the same time, oil prices jumped to more than $US140 a barrel during the period.

Gold was trading at just over $US837 an ounce in New York on Friday night, down from its record price of $US1033 reached in March.

Dr Close expects gold production to rise in the second half of calendar 2008, as several new and recycled operations swing into action.

"Avoca Resources poured its first gold from Higginsville in July," she said, "Apex Minerals will restart Wiluna in November and St Barbara plans to re-start Gwalia in the next few months.

"Before the end of the year, both Oz Minerals Prominent Hill and Lihir Gold's Ballarat East should also be in production; then will come Boddington - the grand-daddy of them all - in late 2008 or early 2009."

The largest gold producer in 2007-08 was Newcrest Mining Corp's Telfer mine with 590,218 ounces, followed by Barrick Gold and Newmont Mining's Super Pit joint venture with 567,000 ounces

 

[amory]

kennas you know amory is gr_basher don't you?

Amazing how one person can get himself ignored on 3 different forums, must take some real effort to achieve that!!!

... abused, ridiculed but proven right many times (such as that Gold is just another commodity & which will fall to half of what some experts are predicting - which is exactly what happened, and that the Fed much to everyone's surprise knows what they're doing!) ...

but when you say IGNORED ... never!!!

 

[Real1ty]

... abused, ridiculed but proven right many times (such as that Gold is just another commodity & which will fall to half of what some experts are predicting - which is exactly what happened, and that the Fed much to everyone's surprise knows what they're doing!) ...

but when you say IGNORED ... never!!!

And so it begins......

 

[Investor123]

Trading oil / gold spread will be a better choice in this kind of choppy environment:

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=12198

 

[explod]

... and that the Fed much to everyone's surprise knows what they're doing!) ...

but when you say IGNORED ... never!!!

Would be particularly interested in how you think the Fed will handle the current mortgage crisis which appears to be taking Freddie/Fannie and most other banks down the tube.

Some quatifiable specifics will assist my outlook.

cheers explod

 

[amory]

Would be particularly interested in how you think the Fed will handle the current mortgage crisis which appears to be taking Freddie/Fannie and most other banks down the tube.

Some quatifiable specifics will assist my outlook.

cheers explod

I cannot answer this my friend. fact is, I was as amazed as anyone when the market regained its confidence in the Fed, proving this by going up.

"how the Fed will handle the current mortgage crisis which appears to be taking Freddie/Fannie and most other banks down the tube" to tell the truth I've got no idea. all I know is they'll do it.

the only thing I found even more surprising was that Gold went up right along with the Dow. does that mean there are still people out there who think gold will one day find its rightful place as the alternative currency to the despised fiat-currency, the one which is supposed to be heading straight for Zimbabwe-like collapse?

pardon me for laughing. ha-ha. the dollar will still be around for a long while yet, dire predictions notwithstanding. until then, the answer to
"Gold Price - Where is it heading?" can only be: not very far!

 

[cluster]

History would suggest otherwise on both accounts, unless the Fed can pull a rabbit out of its hat, in which case why hasn't it done so earlier?

 

[Whiskers]

Basically I'm still thinking oil down a little and tending to consolidate or in EW lingo sort out a minor correction for awhile and gold likewise consolidate in the range of 810 to 843/4 before moving up again later.

Aah, what the hell... I'll say it'll come back to 112/13 (depending on which spot chart you use) probably tomorrow.

 

[BentRod]

I like a Short if 824.50 gets breached.

 

[Whiskers]

I like a Short if 824.50 gets breached.

There she goes.

 

[BentRod]

that was quick

 

[Aussiest]

I like a Short if 824.50 gets breached.

How do you actually trade futures? Which brokers can you use?

And, how do you actually trade them? I know that you can trade different sized contracts in forex, for eg, $10.00 ones, $100.00 ones etc. (very basic knowledge).

Which is more profitable to trade: hard or soft commodities?

And, is it possible to get a practice account?

 

[BentRod]

Aus,
I'm using a forex broker, not trading Futures.
Position sizing is dynamic the same as it is for Currencies.

Interactive Brokers would be the best choice for Futs.

And, is it possible to get a practice account?

Most of the metatrader demos should have Gold.
Try the russian Alpari one, it's the only one I have found with USDX which I I use a bit, also has Nat Gas and Crude contracts.

http://www.alpari-idc.com/en/metatrader4/open-demo-account.html

 

[explod]

I cannot answer this my friend. fact is, I was as amazed as anyone when the market regained its confidence in the Fed, proving this by going up.

"how the Fed will handle the current mortgage crisis which appears to be taking Freddie/Fannie and most other banks down the tube" to tell the truth I've got no idea. all I know is they'll do it.

the only thing I found even more surprising was that Gold went up right along with the Dow. does that mean there are still people out there who think gold will one day find its rightful place as the alternative currency to the despised fiat-currency, the one which is supposed to be heading straight for Zimbabwe-like collapse?

pardon me for laughing. ha-ha. the dollar will still be around for a long while yet, dire predictions notwithstanding. until then, the answer to
"Gold Price - Where is it heading?" can only be: not very far!

Good investors and economist do not make predictions. They follow the trends and carefully analyse fundamentals. If you were to do that you will indeed find that the US dollar has been falling now for five years and for very good fundamental reasons. The US has over spent, can no longer pay their bills or loan repayments.

I could go on but a waste on some but those who follow this thread understand.

I do not know what will happen to overcome the problems of paper money that has lost its tangible value. Gold is a very small component of any alternative and its very finite supply will see it go through the roof with just a small amount of attention.

The fear of its going up grips the US as it send a wrong message to the sheeple. Witness last night on a holiday in the US they sell it down $15. And all the very bad business news on Wall Street was released after the close of market on Friday night.

If you follow you current idea that the Fed may save ya without any idea of how there will not be too much Ha Ha or He he going your way.