Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[amory]

Good morning Explod.

<< I am a trend follower also and gold has gone up every year since 2002. That has been good for me. >>

that is true, but other commodities - most other commodities - have done much better. look at Oil, it is now ahead of gold out of all proportion. by comparison, Gold should be well over $1000.

best regards

 

[explod]

Good morning Explod.

<< I am a trend follower also and gold has gone up every year since 2002. That has been good for me. >>

that is true, but other commodities - most other commodities - have done much better. look at Oil, it is now ahead of gold out of all proportion. by comparison, Gold should be well over $1000.

best regards

thought the topic was gold. I purchased OSH years back when it was a dollar. So what, no rocket science, just common sense.

US dollar is going the same way as weimer Germany 1920's where in the end it took "a wheel barrow load to buy a meat pie"

 

[explod]

Good morning Explod.


that is true, but other commodities - most other commodities - have done much better. look at Oil, it is now ahead of gold out of all proportion. by comparison, Gold should be well over $1000.

best regards

Yes but a look at the weekly charts back to 2004 does not see a great difference. And if not for the Plunge Protection Team Efforts (Bloomberg/the Fed and the shorts and onsale gold contracts that cannot in fact be delivered) gold would be well over that number. On the unravelling that is now coming to the fore, and the litigation and rule changes that will come through in the next 12 months, we will see.

and best regards to you also

 

[amory]

<< US dollar is going the same way as weimer Germany 1920's where in the end it took "a wheel barrow load to buy a meat pie" >>

this then is the ultimate question: will the Fed & the rest of the world - dependent as they are on a healthy US - allow that to happen? I don't believe they will, nor do I recall the meatpie forming part of the german diet in the 1920's.

envisaging a Zimbabwe-type situation, that's drawing a very long bow indeed! but we do share some common ground: we both see a close relationship between the fate of the dollar & that of gold.

 

[explod]

<< US dollar is going the same way as weimer Germany 1920's where in the end it took "a wheel barrow load to buy a meat pie" >>

this then is the ultimate question: will the Fed & the rest of the world - dependent as they are on a healthy US - allow that to happen? I don't believe they will, nor do I recall the meatpie forming part of the german diet in the 1920's.

envisaging a Zimbabwe-type situation, that's drawing a very long bow indeed! but we do share some common ground: we both see a close relationship between the fate of the dollar & that of gold.

We are already witnessing nations moving away from the US reserve currency. Some though, Japan and China in particular hold too many and till now have been part of holding it together, the latter to maintain trade and protect the asset, so to speak. The US of course in toto are producing less across the board than the costs associated with the borrowings. A weaker dollar means less actual cost in these repayments.

The situation with Germany and the US back in the 20's was the same, US lent to Germany so that they could buy US goods. Printing presses lessened the debt but the conundrum was a part of what created WW2. There are many similar signs today that would indicate we are heading down the same path. The US have the war machine and the debt levels.

We are in for a rough ride and a US dollar falling off the cliff appears to be part of it and in spite of the jawboning "the plan". Gold for some time will be one of the alternatives untill a new global money order is re-established.

IMVHO

 

[Ageo]

I have a simple question for all the skeptics out there that think gold and other commodoties are over priced. Isnt a commodity something that has a limit to? i.e paper can be printed all the time but gold? silver? oil?

Precious metals (i.e gold and silver) was the currency for many many centuries. Surely it has to increase in value over time.

I mean 1 person would think that if supply's start to shorten then eventually prices will rise. If you keep mining gold for example eventually you will deplete it.

Just interested in your thoughts?

 

[Trembling Hand]

Gold is not use up(mostly). It just sits around, the more that is mined the more that is ready to be dumped on any demand once it become attractive enough price wise. Unlike oil which gets used as its produced.

 

[skyQuake]

Yeah, most of it is made into jewelery and stored. Very little is actually 'consumed'. Almost all gold ever mined since the beginning of time is just sitting around... waiting. Same cant be said of other commodities...
Silver is a bit different, Around 1/3 is acually used for jewelery. 1/4 is for photohgraphy and the rest industrial uses... Still a crapload lying around though.

 

[MRC & Co]

Gold is not use up(mostly). It just sits around, the more that is mined the more that is ready to be dumped on any demand once it become attractive enough price wise. Unlike oil which gets used as its produced.

I drank some gold the other day in some Austrian Schnapps.

 

[explod]

I dont' like it as much as the first merlot I have just put in front of myself for the evening but I do like it a lot.

I brought my first 10 oz block in June 20084 for $390 and the damned thing just keeps growing in stature year by year.

Not too sure of exactly what does it but, greed, store of wealth, or some other, but it is blo.dy marvelous.

IMVHO as allways

 

[solomon]

Where is it headed? Well just at this moment it is headed south. It seems to be dropping out of the sky. Is it that weakness in the euro would seem to suggest USD strength and that is bad for gold?

 

[Whiskers]

Well, seems like the POG is behaving as predicted so far... so time to gaze a bit further ahead again.

It's looking like it will complete the first minor leg up, in what I reckon is cycle III, any day now... about 845, maybe 860.

Then, I reckon it will sort out a little abc for wave 2 between say 810 and 845 over the next week or so... before heading for 880 odd.

All going like clockwork. Not even the bludy russians have been able to upset my general target... at least so far.

Feeling pretty good for a general market recovery with a steadyily increasing gold price, especially in AUD.

Got a few resource species lined up that have just about statistically bottomed out and due for considerable recoveries.

 

[Temjin]

I dont' like it as much as the first merlot I have just put in front of myself for the evening but I do like it a lot.

I brought my first 10 oz block in June 20084 for $390 and the damned thing just keeps growing in stature year by year.

Not too sure of exactly what does it but, greed, store of wealth, or some other, but it is blo.dy marvelous.

IMVHO as allways

hehe explod, if POG worth $390 in the year 20084, we are all "freaking doomed!".

But well done on the purchase regardless.

(p.s: off topic, but $#^%$#@^#@^ spider crawled on my desk just as I was typing this, that's two dead now...)

Anyway, the USD Index is really struggling to break out top at the moment.

 

[Kauri]

just a completely idle thought...

Cheers
...........Kauri

 

[wayneL]

just a completely idle thought...

Cheers
...........Kauri

Don't forget to show us (or tell us) timeframe.

eg your chart is daily

Cheers

 

[explod]

hehe explod, if POG worth $390 in the year 20084, we are all "freaking doomed!".

But well done on the purchase regardless.

(p.s: off topic, but $#^%$#@^#@^ spider crawled on my desk just as I was typing this, that's two dead now...)

Anyway, the USD Index is really struggling to break out top at the moment.

Actually 2008 would have been something smart. Spiders hanging around are said to b e good luck. The fact that they are dying a bit of a worry.

Now, not one to make predictions but feel gold may break up 40 odd dollars over the next day or two. Just a wild hunch that the bad news is going to weigh big on the US dollar. We will see.

 

[Whiskers]

just a completely idle thought...

Cheers
...........Kauri

Yeah, that was my first thought too, kauri. But after looking at oil, seemingly with a complete little abc and hanging on by it's fingernails and the USD index not too much further away from popping up again, I went for that sideways bit as a iv and looking for a rather stumpy little leg v leading into the abc to come.

News out of the US tonight may decide it for us.

But in any case there seems to be more consensus that gold is on the up again.

 

[Whiskers]

It's looking like it will complete the first minor leg up, in what I reckon is cycle III, any day now... about 845, maybe 860.

Well, I might be pre-empting things a bit... but I think it now looks like we'll have to be happy with about 843/4 (depending on which spot price chart you look at), cos with better than expected US GDP and assuming Gustav isn't going to be a problem and goes away soon, POO is set to drop to new lows too.

 

[BentRod]

Does that mean your bearish Gold then Whiskers??

 

[Sean K]

Well, I might be pre-empting things a bit... but I think it now looks like we'll have to be happy with about 843/4 (depending on which spot price chart you look at)

Whiskers, what about the 'maybe $860'?

Does this mean you are going to claim you were exactly right on the $845 prediction, even though you gave two possible numbers...

Just wondering how this prediction success game works...