Hi Wavepicker,
I also picked up gold under $300 and silver under $4.50, and have had 100% of the gains since then. My question for you is what percentage of the gains up til now have you missed?
The above post gives the impression you've had all the gains since then. If you were following Prechter the EW guru on gold he also called for a rally in gold when it was under $300, but he was calling a countertrend rally before a new all time (well, since 1980) low, not a new bull market. So even though he got in under $300, his calls have been wrong for most of the last 7 years.
Hello RS,
I liquidated my Gold position at $665(I think from memory) in May 2006 a week or so prior the almost $200 correction. I didn't exit at the peak because I could not tell when that was going to be, but I knew when I did exit back then the trend was at risk and it was only a matter of time before a major correction.
I must emphasize this entire trade was cycles and EW based. I then traded Gold short @ $720, then long and then short again. If you look back at the posts in this thread during that period I have explained in more detail reasons(technical) for buying and selling.
To answer your question, yes I have missed gains in Gold, but the gains I missed more than exceeded by the short term trades made after exiting my long term long. In any case I also exited for other reasons not related to trading/timing the market so it it doesn't matter.
For me what is important now is where Gold is heading now( I am short the past 2 months) and where it is heading in the months ahead which IMO is lower. There are better opportunities to buy a long in Gold at lower prices IMO if one is patient.
I am not a Gold bull or a bear Refined Silver, I don't have any biases, I just go with the flow as I see fit and don't like to get emotionally attached to positions.
In so far as EW goes, it has been an invaluable tool(for me) for trading the market in
the past, not without flaws I might add, but there is no perfect system out there anyway either fundemental or technical but for me personally EW has been a great tool.
Just my 2c