Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[barrett]

jeez... duck out for a beef and black bean and look what happens... missed the whole thing, maybe should move to Europe where gold doesn't make its biggest move at dinner time every night

This looks like a big bottoming formation in the low 890s. I went long at 894. If 900 is recaptured then the bottom would look more certain, and would look at doubling the long.. the volume is strongly supporting this bullish case at the moment. The market bounced strongly off the top of wave 1 support at 888.... so the bullish EW could still be valid.

 

[barrett]

US market liquidating down to 900 and just below... volume turns bearish.. covering longs for now..

 

[refined silver]

I was called a dreamer in 2001 when I picked up Gold under $300.

Hi Wavepicker,

I also picked up gold under $300 and silver under $4.50, and have had 100% of the gains since then. My question for you is what percentage of the gains up til now have you missed?

The above post gives the impression you've had all the gains since then. If you were following Prechter the EW guru on gold he also called for a rally in gold when it was under $300, but he was calling a countertrend rally before a new all time (well, since 1980) low, not a new bull market. So even though he got in under $300, his calls have been wrong for most of the last 7 years.

 

[Trembling Hand]

I also picked up gold under $300 and silver under $4.50, and have had 100% of the gains since then. My question for you is what percentage of the gains up til now have you missed?

Have you considered this your best investment during this time? Considering AUS equities gains in that time plus divs??

 

[refined silver]

Have you considered this your best investment during this time? Considering AUS equities gains in that time plus divs??

My exposure has all been via equities, mostly juniors. They have been rotated and changed during the last 7 years.

In hindsight, they've been very good but not the best.

I chose them though because I believed they were the surest, rather than the best.

 

[Trembling Hand]

My exposure has all been via equities, mostly juniors. They have been rotated and changed during the last 7 years.

In hindsight, they've been very good but not the best.

I chose them though because I believed they were the surest, rather than the best.

OK. Thought you meant actual gold. Which although has been ok hasn't really been the best trade by a long shot since 01.

 

[wavepicker]

Hi Wavepicker,

I also picked up gold under $300 and silver under $4.50, and have had 100% of the gains since then. My question for you is what percentage of the gains up til now have you missed?

The above post gives the impression you've had all the gains since then. If you were following Prechter the EW guru on gold he also called for a rally in gold when it was under $300, but he was calling a countertrend rally before a new all time (well, since 1980) low, not a new bull market. So even though he got in under $300, his calls have been wrong for most of the last 7 years.

Hello RS,

I liquidated my Gold position at $665(I think from memory) in May 2006 a week or so prior the almost $200 correction. I didn't exit at the peak because I could not tell when that was going to be, but I knew when I did exit back then the trend was at risk and it was only a matter of time before a major correction.

I must emphasize this entire trade was cycles and EW based. I then traded Gold short @ $720, then long and then short again. If you look back at the posts in this thread during that period I have explained in more detail reasons(technical) for buying and selling.

To answer your question, yes I have missed gains in Gold, but the gains I missed more than exceeded by the short term trades made after exiting my long term long. In any case I also exited for other reasons not related to trading/timing the market so it it doesn't matter.

For me what is important now is where Gold is heading now( I am short the past 2 months) and where it is heading in the months ahead which IMO is lower. There are better opportunities to buy a long in Gold at lower prices IMO if one is patient.

I am not a Gold bull or a bear Refined Silver, I don't have any biases, I just go with the flow as I see fit and don't like to get emotionally attached to positions.

In so far as EW goes, it has been an invaluable tool(for me) for trading the market in
the past, not without flaws I might add, but there is no perfect system out there anyway either fundemental or technical but for me personally EW has been a great tool.

Just my 2c

 

[explod]

The assault on the gold price has begun a little earlier tonight but pretty much the same as the previous two nights.

Will be interesting to see which way from here for the next few days.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

After all the banter and all the rubbish. in the end Wavepicker and I were right the gold trend has changed and the main trend line it was on since it made it's rally out of 700 is OVER! it's now selling down I have shorted it twice and cleaned up!

if u still disagree then see the daily chart that anit a up move no move!

I don't expect any of you to say yes you and WP were right. The chart tells me that for u all.

Cheers

 

[michael_selway]

After all the banter and all the rubbish. in the end Wavepicker and I were right the gold trend has changed and the main trend line it was on since it made it's rally out of 700 is OVER! it's now selling down I have shorted it twice and cleaned up!

if u still disagree then see the daily chart that anit a up move no move!

I don't expect any of you to say yes you and WP were right. The chart tells me that for u all.

Cheers

Hey does that chart look like that a double bottom could be forming?

thx

MS

 

[VViCKiD]

Hey does that chart look like that a double bottom could be forming?

thx

MS

Looks like POG is trying to touch support
Hmmzzz ... maybe i should get rid of my BNB stocks and go long on NCM...

 

[wayneL]

Hey does that chart look like that a double bottom could be forming?

thx

MS

Double bottom?

Where?

 

[Young Gun]

I see confluence between todays pivot point and a 28% Fib level from May 4 ($843us) swing low to May 22 ($933us) swing high .

I am seeing a modest rebond from $880 USD to $905 ish before swinging lower. I am having a short term punt , long on gold. Will see how my crystal ball is doing by tommorow.

 

[Young Gun]

crystal ball doing ok , gold already jumped $8us since my last post .

and no i didnt edit the previous post, edit was made at 27 minutes past , see chart

 

[wayneL]

crystal ball doing ok , gold already jumped $17us since my last post .

$17???

I have a low on the June contract of $878.60

Highest since then is $886.70

+ $8.10

Price at time of posting $883.50

+ $ 4.90

 

[Young Gun]

Sorry my mistake $8, getting a bit sleepy i should probably get to bed !

 

[wayneL]

Sorry my mistake $8, getting a bit sleepy i should probably get to bed !

Sounds exactly like my mathematics when sleepy.

 

[barrett]

After all the banter and all the rubbish. in the end Wavepicker and I were right the gold trend has changed and the main trend line it was on since it made it's rally out of 700 is OVER! it's now selling down I have shorted it twice and cleaned up!

if u still disagree then see the daily chart that anit a up move no move!

I don't expect any of you to say yes you and WP were right. The chart tells me that for u all.

Cheers

Nearly everyone on the thread has turned medium-term bearish since late March, with some of us trading short term swings and rebounds within the broader corrective phase. Can you explain how that makes you right and everyone else wrong?

I was out all evening unavoidably and missed the bearish signals. Nice work anyone who was short.

888 was a crucial level in terms of wave count. Tonight's break of it puts the final nail in the coffin for the short-term bullish count I put up two days ago. I would say we are in for some steady selling in the weeks ahead. 888 which was previously support, now likely to be strong overhead resistance.... noticing also how the market just retraced to that level and bounced off. If the mid to high 880s are touched again or the downward move intensifies I'll be looking to place trading shorts.

 

[wayneL]

Can you explain how that makes you right and everyone else wrong?

We probably should probably scour our Junge texts for the answer to that.

How 'bout that head fake eh?

 

[barrett]

How 'bout that head fake eh?

I see anything going up that quickly as cannonbait unless Bernanke made a sudden rate cut or something... Younggun did well to get in beforehand but $5 up in 1 min is short covering, when they're done and the momentum's through, look out below!

Better keep one eye on the ominous EURUSD cross.. not validated yet, but any break of the red line would be a big red flag for prices of everything in US dollar terms, including gold, probably for at least a month or two.. as discussed here before that might not be very relevant for gold share traders but certainly would be for gold futures/CFD traders...