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Gold Price - Where is it heading?
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Apocalypto, about the time of the recent bottom in gold, the chart had just broken the neckline of a bearish H&S and technically looked headed much lower. I and a few others stated that we doubted very much that gold would head much lower and in fact was probably about to turn higher. I also pointed out that the worst looking TA had been the best time to buy in gold for the last 7 years. (buy the dips)
You accused me and then others of following gurus (and funnily enough, now you start naming yours!!). You made about 5 accusations/guesses by email which were all totally wrong as was your gold call (which at least you've graciously acknowledged).
Thanks for the teaching offer, but forgive me if I pass on it, from someone who sends unsolicited, obnoxious, accusatory and incorrect emails, and at the same time is so obviously clueless on gold.
>Apocalypto<
20.03.2012
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Nice post mate I am touched.
:each to there own.
I can see now that your a lost cause I won't waste any more time with u. I hope u make a million, charge on!If you're so upset about my pm then send it to Joe.
Case closed.
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Speaking to the 'worlds #1 hedge fund' the other day, interesting to note they are long gold.
Of all the charts posted, Uncles recent chart tells me the most. Simple but important.
I hear further rate cuts in the US are being mentioned in the pits once more.......
Just on another note, looking at a consenus of opinion the oil bull will continue to rage, commodity prices are seeing no limits (some of the recent price negotiations are astounding), inflation expected globally (and being seen), I see only one direction for gold (in the medium-term) and think this may just be the start of it's next run.
Cheers
Of all the charts posted, Uncles recent chart tells me the most. Simple but important.
I hear further rate cuts in the US are being mentioned in the pits once more.......
Just on another note, looking at a consenus of opinion the oil bull will continue to rage, commodity prices are seeing no limits (some of the recent price negotiations are astounding), inflation expected globally (and being seen), I see only one direction for gold (in the medium-term) and think this may just be the start of it's next run.
Cheers
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Nice post mate I am touched.
each to there own.
If you're so upset about my pm then send it to Joe.
Case closed.
Yeah, we'll leave it there. I can't forward it as it was deleted straight away, but I've been far more respectful to you in my posts, than you were in the email.
Maybe in future you'll think first before sending people messages telling them they're a lost cause, loser at trading, how they trade etc (when you have no clue) and telling them to not bother replying, (because you just wanted to dump on them) all because you disagree with their take on the market, when they weren't even talking with you in the first place!
Trembling Hand
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Really? You must be talking to the wrong people...
Nothing being "priced" in. Looks like a bottom in rates to me.
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Really? You must be talking to the wrong people...
Nothing being "priced" in. Looks like a bottom in rates to me.
Yes, I was waiting for a similar chart to be posted in response
Not enough talk to move a market yet.
explod
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As everyone seems to be a bit fractious, I suppose the recent correction has frayed the nerves a tad, I though it might be interesting to come back to the theme of our thread, GOLD - WHERE IS IT HEADING ?
Against the Halifax Price Index house prices have risen an average of 8% a year since the early 1980's and wagers have done similar. In 1980 gold spiked at US$850 so against that basis the real value of gold should be US$8,000 an ounce.
The following I have trotted out before but worth putting in here against the above:-
In 1970 gold started an uptrend then from US$35 an ounce and blew off the top in 1980 at 850., or 24 times 35. In 2001 our base low was US$260 so by 24 times we could expect a repitition to take it to US$6,240 which is not that far away from the rough inflation amount above.
Of course for me, and this is where there is skepticism, the situation though bad in 1980 was a walk in the park to where I beleive we are headed today and the $US back then was regarded as strong and invincible as the world reserve currency.
It is interesting that the pundits of Wall Street seem to think they have hit the bottom. Fuel costs alone have doubled in 12 months. Home forclosures in April hit a quarter million, a rate that is three times that of 2 years ago.
The problems for the US have not even hit home yet let alone hit the bottom line. In the last few months discreationary spending has also virtually stopped. Such matters take months or more to be reflected in the real figures. The same stories are coming out of the UK and China is having some rude awakenings also.
I applaude those doing well on the short term trades, but for me, the bunker till after the bombs hit, and damned pleased to have learnt be long physical.
Against the Halifax Price Index house prices have risen an average of 8% a year since the early 1980's and wagers have done similar. In 1980 gold spiked at US$850 so against that basis the real value of gold should be US$8,000 an ounce.
The following I have trotted out before but worth putting in here against the above:-
In 1970 gold started an uptrend then from US$35 an ounce and blew off the top in 1980 at 850., or 24 times 35. In 2001 our base low was US$260 so by 24 times we could expect a repitition to take it to US$6,240 which is not that far away from the rough inflation amount above.
Of course for me, and this is where there is skepticism, the situation though bad in 1980 was a walk in the park to where I beleive we are headed today and the $US back then was regarded as strong and invincible as the world reserve currency.
It is interesting that the pundits of Wall Street seem to think they have hit the bottom. Fuel costs alone have doubled in 12 months. Home forclosures in April hit a quarter million, a rate that is three times that of 2 years ago.
The problems for the US have not even hit home yet let alone hit the bottom line. In the last few months discreationary spending has also virtually stopped. Such matters take months or more to be reflected in the real figures. The same stories are coming out of the UK and China is having some rude awakenings also.
I applaude those doing well on the short term trades, but for me, the bunker till after the bombs hit, and damned pleased to have learnt be long physical.
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I hear further rate cuts in the US are being mentioned in the pits once more.......
I think rates will decrease further too, as more shoes drop in the the credit crisis. At the moment all the spin is everything is sorted, the worst is over.
The Fed needed to pause the cuts (pretending that it was finished) to give more room for more cuts later, not that it'll solve the problems, but will allow for more spin and jawboning that all is under control.
All will lead to higher gold.
Kauri
E/W Learner
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When...
.............monday
.............monday weak
.............monday month
.............monday eventually
.............a monday too far
Cheers
........Kauri
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Though the topic of this forum is "Gold price - where is it heading" I have to say that as an Australian investor I am ultimately interested in where is the gold price heading in AUSTRALIAN dollars. For which reason and for general interest I have prepared the attached charts of USD and AUD gold price versus oil price and USD:AUD rates of exchange versus gold prices. I think these charts illustrate quite nicely how over the long term there has been a strong correlation between gold and oil prices. For the bulls forecasting gold prices in USD/oz of around $1600 or for the bears who think it is going to crash to $600/oz it is worth glancing at these charts and asking what each of those price movements would mean in terms of corresponding future oil prices and exchange rates for USD versus AUD. I am not offering a forecast here based on these charts. If anyone wants to they can draw their own colnclusions. I will simply add that I have recently put 35% of my portfolio from cash into a mixture of gold bullion and gold stocks.
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What gold stocks did you buy?
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LGL & TRY.
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Gold has mounted a rally of the lows it's low in this current bear campaign, but already the bulls are back reinforcing their bullish stance with almost with every rising tick.
I remain bearish Gold for the medium term, I believe this is just a rally in the the downtrend that started from the $1030 high. For me this rally should find resistance ( and is thus a dud) between $920-940 and will use it as an opportunity to make another short if the right circumstances present themselves( I do however concede that it could also go higher and a retest is possible in the market and thus invalidate my thoughts). It doesn't matter as I have made contingencies for such a situation. I don't hope and hang like the perma bulls posting here of late. That is my style, not saying what they are doing is incorrect, as it is their style. But by the same token I wish them to repsect that and to simply stop nitpicking every single chart and piece of text I post.
I have posted my EW analysis for Gold some weeks ago and the reasons for the bearish stance, I went short on Gold back then I made some reaonable coin.
Being a medium term swing trader (as many others do on this forum) I don't have any biases as such, I just trade my plan bearish or bullish, flowing in and out of trades with the market.
My very long term(secular) stance on Gold remains bullish. One reason for this is well represented by the Dow/Gold ratio chart below(chart is not current). If one looks closely at this chart it's easy to see that the average bear campaign since 1896 has been 14 years. The current leg down is only 8 years.
I also use another cycle called the "Metonic Cycle" which certain Gann schools are familiar with. The Metonic Cycle runs for 19 years and 5 days. The bear market in Gold ran from 1980 till 1999 (1 metonic Cycle) and so the current bull using this cycle is due to complete in 2017/2108. There are numerous other examples in many other markets of this cycle at work.
The reason for my current stance at this juncture is that the market is showing evidence for the possibility of a multi year intervening rally in the Dow Gold ratio and the US Dollar. Exact timing has been a problem, but thus far we have seen completed impulses from 1999 to 2008 in Spot Gold, Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index, and The Gold Bugs Index AND the Dow/Gold ratio(see chart below). These are classic EW completions, make no mistake about that, lots of confluence there.
However the biggest clue of all has come from the Silver and Gold markets themselves, with Gold making an new alltime high by surpassing the 1980 peak but Silver failing to overtake it's 1980 peak. A bearish non confirmation if I ever saw one.
Once again concede that anything is possible and this could also be invalidated. No one can tell the future and as such when trading an as such a game plan is must. For now, no reason change the current line of thinking and looking to position short if the correct circumstances manifest themselves.
Cheers
I remain bearish Gold for the medium term, I believe this is just a rally in the the downtrend that started from the $1030 high. For me this rally should find resistance ( and is thus a dud) between $920-940 and will use it as an opportunity to make another short if the right circumstances present themselves( I do however concede that it could also go higher and a retest is possible in the market and thus invalidate my thoughts). It doesn't matter as I have made contingencies for such a situation. I don't hope and hang like the perma bulls posting here of late. That is my style, not saying what they are doing is incorrect, as it is their style. But by the same token I wish them to repsect that and to simply stop nitpicking every single chart and piece of text I post.
I have posted my EW analysis for Gold some weeks ago and the reasons for the bearish stance, I went short on Gold back then I made some reaonable coin.
Being a medium term swing trader (as many others do on this forum) I don't have any biases as such, I just trade my plan bearish or bullish, flowing in and out of trades with the market.
My very long term(secular) stance on Gold remains bullish. One reason for this is well represented by the Dow/Gold ratio chart below(chart is not current). If one looks closely at this chart it's easy to see that the average bear campaign since 1896 has been 14 years. The current leg down is only 8 years.
I also use another cycle called the "Metonic Cycle" which certain Gann schools are familiar with. The Metonic Cycle runs for 19 years and 5 days. The bear market in Gold ran from 1980 till 1999 (1 metonic Cycle) and so the current bull using this cycle is due to complete in 2017/2108. There are numerous other examples in many other markets of this cycle at work.
The reason for my current stance at this juncture is that the market is showing evidence for the possibility of a multi year intervening rally in the Dow Gold ratio and the US Dollar. Exact timing has been a problem, but thus far we have seen completed impulses from 1999 to 2008 in Spot Gold, Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index, and The Gold Bugs Index AND the Dow/Gold ratio(see chart below). These are classic EW completions, make no mistake about that, lots of confluence there.
However the biggest clue of all has come from the Silver and Gold markets themselves, with Gold making an new alltime high by surpassing the 1980 peak but Silver failing to overtake it's 1980 peak. A bearish non confirmation if I ever saw one.
Once again concede that anything is possible and this could also be invalidated. No one can tell the future and as such when trading an as such a game plan is must. For now, no reason change the current line of thinking and looking to position short if the correct circumstances manifest themselves.
Cheers
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Since the Fed only meets every 6 weeks, barring emergencies the first 2 are out. The pause is til the next emergency, when the Fed needs to be seen to "be doing something". Have no idea when, but can't see it being in too many meetings time.
If you are in stocks or in physical, without margin, it doesn't matter too much.
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LGL looks like it might be worth a punt but I just had a look at TRY and well... why did you buy that?
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hello camkawa. I was looking at LGL recently as well but decided against it. We have just come out of an 8 year bull campaign. Sure LGL price decline has satisfied my min retrace requirements(0.382 of the entire advance). Have called this red wave 1. If red wave 2 is complete(the current leg down), it is very small in terms of time to red wave one. My guess is, that this wave 2 is incomplete and will most likely turn turn into something more complex before finding a proper low. Sure, an orthodox price low might be in, but this market may also meander sideways for quite a while which is a good as a bear market IMO as there are other opportunities being missed at the same time. My 2c is, what is the market doing medium term? It's going down. Trade what you see, but that is just me and anything is possible
Cheers
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My fear about buying gold now is if oil corrects gold might get hammered again. $WTIC has an RSI of 67.64 and is knocking on the door of overbought territory.
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Agreed
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Maybe, maybe not. Oil is (short term spec?) overbought, gold is consolidating/proving. If they are going to revert (or even overshoot) to the historic ratio of 14:1 there is room for oil to correct & not effect gold. Something could be about to happen very soon ie this week, possibly as indicated by Bintang's scatters or simply the gold:wtic chart showing indicators extreme 'oversold'? Time for another rotation?
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