Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[wavepicker]

I see anything going up that quickly as cannonbait unless Bernanke made a sudden rate cut or something... Younggun did well to get in beforehand but $5 up in 1 min is short covering, when they're done and the momentum's through, look out below!

Better keep one eye on the ominous EURUSD cross.. not validated yet, but any break of the red line would be a big red flag for prices of everything in US dollar terms, including gold, probably for at least a month or two.. as discussed here before that might not be very relevant for gold share traders but certainly would be for gold futures/CFD traders...

Tend to agree with you Barret. This is however a 3rd wave in the EURUSD IMO and that break will come very soon. In Gold this is a C wave move that started out of the last high and C waves are likened to 3rd waves and are usually impulses.

I looked at the EURUSD chart from weeks ago and the cycle envelopes I use pointed to a top already in and a low already in the USD. That is why I have spoken bullishly for the USD . Not to mention the relentless bearishness of most to the USD, a classic contrarian trade setup.
The same Cycles Bands hinted to stiff resistance between 920-940 in Gold in the last leg up.
Gold and Silver always counted best as completed impulses, they just looked too good to be otherwise(but anything is possible and one must trade always with protective stops). ATM all I see is 3 wave rallies and three waves always unfold against the one larger trend, the one larger trend is DOWN and the last low of 850( Implod's and Refined Silver's Great Wall of China 28 year support level) will give way easily in the weeks ahead.

Cheers

 

[explod]

Well Silver, looking back the last three weeks looks like a perfect head and shoulders that will complete early next week at about US$855.

But anything is possible.

Interesting times as usual. The Tanks still have the power to impose thier own ideas but those times are fading. The imposition is becoming blatantly clear now and the rest of the G7 are going their own way.

 

[explod]

From Jim Sinclair's site:-

<quote>




Posted On: Thursday, May 29, 2008, 4:11:00 PM EST

Gold's Low In Over A Month Ago

Author: Jim Sinclair




Dear Friends,

I am staying with the position that the price of gold established its LOW in this reaction period on April 28th.

We are entering into an area of major support as gold trades below the $887.50 Angel. That Angel will demonstrate its magnetic influence by pulling gold to the upside.

A worst case scenario bottom on this second decline will be within a range of $18 to $22 under that Angel. A more likely scenario is $10 to $14 under.

In terms of a timeframe to establish the absolute low, which will be a huge Bear Trap, is a few days at the most.

After this absolute low has been established, the $1200 magnet will start pulling on the price of gold once again.

<unquote>

 

[Uncle Festivus]

I see anything going up that quickly as cannonbait unless Bernanke made a sudden rate cut or something... Younggun did well to get in beforehand but $5 up in 1 min is short covering, when they're done and the momentum's through, look out below!

Better keep one eye on the ominous EURUSD cross.. not validated yet, but any break of the red line would be a big red flag for prices of everything in US dollar terms, including gold, probably for at least a month or two.. as discussed here before that might not be very relevant for gold share traders but certainly would be for gold futures/CFD traders...

I think for we are in a transition stage between the relative fundamentals of the 3 competing currencies of $US, Euro & gold. Gold as a commodity was left in the dust of the capitulating $US several years ago ie jewellery demand as a price mover is nearly redundant.

We just need time for the system to digest the excesses of non regulation of the creations of the money shufflers eg initially sub prime, now credit default swaps etc.

So while the 'game' is still on with the $US there will be periods of strength relative to the Euro & gold, but the secular bear trend is still intact as the Fed will fight to the end, and have willing partners in the EU who would also like to see their currency become more competitive also.

The end game will come when it is realised that neither currency has any intrinsic value due to active demonetisation due to the extra priming and or central bank bail outs of distressed institutions ie Northern Bank fiasco.

The rot started in the US when Chysler was bailed out in the late 70's as I recall, and has promoted a culture of official intervention ever since eg LTCM, thrifts etc. Only now the winning formula has hit a stumbling block with the escalation of the stakes with Bear Stearns, we can see the 'moral hazard' level has been incrementally raised to a point of no return - it's crunch time.

 

[CamKawa]

Market Commentary​

Gold

opened at 893.00/894.00 in New York. The dollar rallied on

the back of positive economic data causing the metal to plummet
down to support near 880.00. It recovered marginally and traded
within a relatively narrow range. Oil inventories fell well below expectations,
which helped oil to move higher but it lost steam and
then tumbled dragging gold to a low of 873.00/874.00. The metal
recovered and ticked sideways closing at 876.25/877.25.
​

​

Silver ​

​

opened at 1711.00/1715.00 and dropped sharply following

slumping copper and oil prices. It rebounded but this move was
short lived as dealers later sold reacting to the stronger USD driving
the metal to a low of 1648.00/1652.00. Investors took a breather
during the latter end of the session and silver finally settled at
1648.00/1652.00.
​

​

Technical Commentary
Gold ​

​

continued its drop lower today and produced yet another

bearish candlestick. As we noted yesterday, the 3-month trend is
clearly bearish, as is the candlestick pattern. Other studies are approaching
sell signals, but have yet to officially produce them. This
includes the MACD and trading moving averages. Today’s downward
move opens up a test back to 846 and we would expect this
to materialize in the coming sessions. A break below this level
would be particularly bearish, however should support here hold it
would foreshadow an attempt back towards 935.
​

​

Silver ​

​

is now approaching a test of the 50% Fibonacci retracement

of the August to March run, which lies at 16.21. A break and close
below this level would be particularly bearish and would open up a
test of the 200-day moving average (15.76). The aggressiveness of
the downward move over the last two days highlights how control
has rapidly shifted from the bulls to the bears. We would look for
the metal’s reaction around support for clues to its direction from here.​

http://www.scotiamocatta.com/prec/pdfs/pm_daily.pdf
​

 

[explod]

Silver is an interesting picture, I think it was one of James Turk's commentators stated yesterday that the paper futures contracts on silver are 100 times greater than the actual amount of physical silver. The gold situation is manipulated in the same manner. "When the music stops..." as quoted a lot of people holding paper promises are going to go broke and those holding physical will be going the other way.

Allan Bond and his parachuting house purchases system sent him to gaol but the rest of the financial world loved the idea so much that it is now legal. But boy, what a crash when it comes.

Just my 2cent rant

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Nearly everyone on the thread has turned medium-term bearish since late March, with some of us trading short term swings and rebounds within the broader corrective phase. Can you explain how that makes you right and everyone else wrong?

I was out all evening unavoidably and missed the bearish signals. Nice work anyone who was short.

888 was a crucial level in terms of wave count. Tonight's break of it puts the final nail in the coffin for the short-term bullish count I put up two days ago. I would say we are in for some steady selling in the weeks ahead. 888 which was previously support, now likely to be strong overhead resistance.... noticing also how the market just retraced to that level and bounced off. If the mid to high 880s are touched again or the downward move intensifies I'll be looking to place trading shorts.

Barret,

Thank you for your reply.

If that is the case my post had nothing to do with you so cool down your steam stack you and I and Wavepicker are in total agreement. I have also been bearish and posting this since then. My post was aimed at a select few. since this is a public board it's nice to name names.

For now I think we will see a minor rally. But the trend for now is set to the down side unless proven other wise.

Have a nice day barret

 

[refined silver]

After all the banter and all the rubbish. in the end Wavepicker and I were right the gold trend has changed and the main trend line it was on since it made it's rally out of 700 is OVER! it's now selling down I have shorted it twice and cleaned up!

I don't expect any of you to say yes you and WP were right. The chart tells me that for u all.

Cheers

Hi A,

If you check the thread, you'll see the most of the "banter" took place when gold was at $850 and had touched $845 just before. I and others were arguing we thought the bottom was about in. (I had also posted much earlier in the decline I thought $825ish was the lowest I thought it would go, with named support levels further up.)

Since that interchange at $850 there has been an $80 rally and now a $50 decline. WP and you suggested $600-700, I and others, (won't name them in case I misquote them!) said we thought gold was going back to its highs and past them without a trip into the 600s and 700s. So I think the jury is still out on this one, and we've a little while to wait to see which way it ends up.

If you've cleaned up on shorts, congratulations, but that doesn't mean others, playing with unmargined shares are wrong either, I've had two shares double in the drop from from $1000, and another just had a takeover bid and went up 50% last week (to new all time highs).

If it goes to $600-700, I'll be the first to say well done.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Hi A,

If you check the thread, you'll see the most of the "banter" took place when gold was at $850 and had touched $845 just before. I and others were arguing we thought the bottom was about in. (I had also posted much earlier in the decline I thought $825ish was the lowest I thought it would go, with named support levels further up.)

Since that interchange at $850 there has been an $80 rally and now a $50 decline. WP and you suggested $600-700, I and others, (won't name them in case I misquote them!) said we thought gold was going back to its highs and past them without a trip into the 600s and 700s. So I think the jury is still out on this one, and we've a little while to wait to see which way it ends up.

If you've cleaned up on shorts, congratulations, but that doesn't mean others, playing with unmargined shares are wrong either, I've had two shares double in the drop from from $1000, and another just had a takeover bid and went up 50% last week (to new all time highs).

If it goes to $600-700, I'll be the first to say well done.

Nice reply RS cheers,

I have been Bearish on Gold since it's high and I am still bearish the thend has changed on the daily, that obvious to every ones eye's. I still think 700 or less is a good posibility as the new trend is down.

Cheers

 

[explod]

Nice reply RS cheers,

I have been Bearish on Gold since it's high and I am still bearish the thend has changed on the daily, that obvious to every ones eye's. I still think 700 or less is a good posibility as the new trend is down.

Cheers

The 30 day chart still says uptrend, the 60 day sideways and the 6 month still very much uptrend. Just look at the plain picture, the lines sometimes makes us a bit crosseyed.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

The 30 day chart still says uptrend, the 60 day sideways and the 6 month still very much uptrend. Just look at the plain picture, the lines sometimes makes us a bit crosseyed.

Explod were u a golden bull in your pased life?

Mate look at the daily and you tell me the trend is still running up wards. my GOD next u pull out a tick chart and tell me it's bullish!

I think there will be a minor rally up see what happens

 

[refined silver]

I'm with explode, although agree all the st charts don't look too hot.

On the other hand, step back a bit, and gold went from $650 to over $1000, straight thru its all time at $850 on the monthly chart ($887 on the daily). Re-testing the $850 breakout from a 27 yr high, was to be expected and is hardly bearish.

Anyway, I'm not going to get into a shouting match about where it going, we'll let it play out and see. I agree ST charts are bearish, but I think fundies will trump ST charts and looking back, this will be seen as a great time to have bought.

 

[barrett]

The 30 day chart still says uptrend, the 60 day sideways and the 6 month still very much uptrend. Just look at the plain picture, the lines sometimes makes us a bit crosseyed.

That 30 day chart trendline is quite a strong/important one for the ST IMO and that was jjust broken on the hourly and now the retracement, I scalped the breakdown and now out, looking to go back in for another short depending on ST action, cheers

 

[barrett]

breakdown confirmed on high vol target 865

 

[explod]

Explod were u a golden bull in your pased life?

Mate look at the daily and you tell me the trend is still running up wards. my GOD next u pull out a tick chart and tell me it's bullish!

I think there will be a minor rally up see what happens

As a matter of fact I have no idea. My front gets the waters boiling though. My only real interest is in the long term.

As per the last three nights on cue gold is being pushed down at this time (oclock). I say it over and over that it is a political issue at the moment so will be pushed down to hold the Republican dream together.

But 6 to $700 US, "tell im ee's dreamin"

Pleased to say I have made an excellent trade on GDR over the last month. The rest of my stuff is in physical.

Little to do with being a Bull IMO., just think it is the safest long term investment in a very uncertain world.

 

[wavepicker]

This is not a competition about who is right or wrong.

We should not be arguing here about who makes the best call, it doesn't matter. I have been dissapointed at 2 posters on this thread in the past because after posting alternate views based on objective Technical Analysis techniques my analysis is nitpicked constantly because it does not conform to their views and their positions. I am sure they would not have liked it.

The name of this thread is "Where is Gold Headed?" I think we should all try to keep to the spirit of the thread rather than aggrevate each other. Who knows, maybe we could even help each other!!

So where is Gold headed gentlemen? Well it is headed down, no one can deny this no matter how many lagging MA's, and trendlines you draw. There is no point getting angry at each other, the trend is what it is. How much lower? Well probably much lower becasue ATM there is no evidence to show otherwise. The EURUSD is in a third wave down, the AUDUSD has formed a very bearish Ending Diagonal, the USDJPY is rallying and Oil is tanking. How much evidence does one need to realize something different is happening here?Just like back in 2001 when Gold made a double bottom that ended the bear market( and very few jumped on board then). In the same way the trend has changed now and once again many have missed the boat because they have gotten caught up in the bulltrend and married their positions

Should this come at a surprise? Absolutely not It ain't rocket science!!

Ohh and Implod, I am not a dreamer you and RS and dreamers for thinking Gold will rise to 2000 or even 3000. My target is very realistic because it's only 200 bucks away. Sweet dreams.

 

[barrett]

breakdown confirmed on high vol target 865

I think I better take that back... the high volume on the rebound and potential inverse head and shoulders forming now suggest it could be an interim bottom after all,l despite the breakdown? ( I mean for a possible short term rally)

 

[CamKawa]

From Jim Sinclair's site:-

<quote>




Posted On: Thursday, May 29, 2008, 4:11:00 PM EST

Gold's Low In Over A Month Ago

Author: Jim Sinclair




Dear Friends,

I am staying with the position that the price of gold established its LOW in this reaction period on April 28th.

We are entering into an area of major support as gold trades below the $887.50 Angel. That Angel will demonstrate its magnetic influence by pulling gold to the upside.

A worst case scenario bottom on this second decline will be within a range of $18 to $22 under that Angel. A more likely scenario is $10 to $14 under.

In terms of a timeframe to establish the absolute low, which will be a huge Bear Trap, is a few days at the most.

After this absolute low has been established, the $1200 magnet will start pulling on the price of gold once again.

<unquote>

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...6cb-4739-adec-1ee15f9cf395}&dist=mostreadhome

 

[explod]

One of the great things that we have achieved Wavepicker, since we began to debate is that you now recognise the importance of gold versus currencies.

Gold is not a commodity, it is a tangible currency. In the short term you have picked the trend well W/P. and take my hat off to you.

We all know what inflation is starting to and will continue to do to currencies so the longer term is a no brainer.

Interesting times ahead

 

[wavepicker]

One of the great things that we have achieved Wavepicker, since we began to debate is that you now recognise the importance of gold versus currencies.

Gold is not a commodity, it is a tangible currency. In the short term you have picked the trend well W/P. and take my hat off to you.

We all know what inflation is starting to and will continue to do to currencies so the longer term is a no brainer.

Interesting times ahead

I totally agree with you explod and always thought the same, I have deep down always been a Gold bug but I am not in the habit of collecting Gold for this reason. although I understand the importance of Gold vs the fiat currency system, my reasons for justifying trades are from the charts, looking for circumstances from which to trade from. It does not have to be Gold, it can be any liquid intrument that exhibits the trait of a good trending markets.

After a long time at looking at charts something happened to me that I thought was not possible. Quite simply I pick and look at a chart and don't bother looking at the the name of the company or instrument. I just look at patterns and that alongside the liquidity factor is my basis for buying and selling.