Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[Whiskers]

Here we go for probably another evening star. We have a (5c ) gap up for the star.

If the current candle closes above 882.50, we have the star and a good chance of another down leg.

 

[explod]

Here we go for probably another evening star. We have a (5c ) gap up for the star.

If the current candle closes above 882.50, we have the star and a good chance of another down leg.

Evening star usually requies a gap between it and the previous candle to have the legs. If it does fail and goes up what is your next call from there.

 

[Whiskers]

Evening star usually requies a gap between it and the previous candle to have the legs. If it does fail and goes up what is your next call from there.

So long as the current daily candle finishes up, it will be a star. If it closes much more than a few dollars higher, it probably wont form an evening star. It could just be a little gap up in a shorter term move, which may or may not get filled.

In the previous chart, there was a bigger gap up over 860 on the 5th May, which given the trend line, for me suggests that it will be filled and adds weight to the shorter term trending a bit lower yet.

 

[Whiskers]

Here we go for probably another evening star. We have a (5c ) gap up for the star.

If the current candle closes above 882.50, we have the star and a good chance of another down leg.

Actually the trend line is about $4 higher on that last candle on the log chart.

I didn't post the log chart because I can't draw lines on it and was too lazy to edit in another program.

Thought I'd post that just to show the little run up again this evening isn't really as strong as it would appear from that chart. :

 

[explod]

Actually the trend line is about $4 higher on that last candle on the log chart.

I didn't post the log chart because I can't draw lines on it and was too lazy to edit in another program.

Thought I'd post that just to show the little run up again this evening isn't really as strong as it would appear from that chart. :

A 9 dollar jump up in the last 30 minutes is not a bad little one to me. If we follow the action of the last few nights a finish above US$ 900 could be on.

 

[rederob]

looks like this might just be the start of the acceleration phase down? Looked like a pretty weak rally from day 1 (as expected "a bounce"). IMO a very tough next few months coming up for the precious metals.
We have heard many times before the "the long term fundementals are intact" and the "the dollar is doomed". The reply to these comments has been: Trade what you see, not what you expect or hope for.

I see gold about to break over $900 ($899.98 as I post this).
It will probably retreat again.
But technical projections to the low $700 range are as fanciful as oil projections suggesting another tilt at $60
If either event ever sees the light of day (in the next 5 years), I will pour many hundreds of thousands of dollars into underlying equities.

 

[Whiskers]

A 9 dollar jump up in the last 30 minutes is not a bad little one to me. If we follow the action of the last few nights a finish above US$ 900 could be on.

And up a couple more too. If it finishes above 895, it'll be hard to see it fall enough at open of next candle to make an evening star... although, if the housing starts and comsumer sentiment no's aren't too bad there will be a good chance of it coming back to close nearer the open.

The USD is getting a bit of a dumping again which accounts for the rise in gold.

On both counts I think it is a temporary aberration against the short term trend... and there is still that decent gap up and (double) evening star from earlier. Of all the candle formations the evening star has been the most reliable for me. The end of the recent bull run was an evening star. So I'd be very surprised to see it close above that earlier evening star... above 890ish.

 

[Whiskers]

Well, we should know which way in a few minutes. 5 min chart.

I'm still betting down.

 

[davidj123]

If it does break the 900 level, is that a bulls trap, that is what everybody is looking for, will the pro's take peoples money is the ?

 

[Whiskers]

If it does break the 900 level, is that a bulls trap, that is what everybody is looking for,

I'd have thought so david, but with consumer sentiment a tad worse again and oil spiking up again, the USD out of favour for most of the night, it's testing my judgement.

But at the end of the day I think it's more a case of end of week jitters... what to do... which way to turn.

Bugga it... gotta get some sleep. See if they don't stage an infamous turn-around in the last hour again... after I've had my kip and brekky.

 

[josjes]

Gartman did a U turn. After calling short when gold turned down $940 in mid April, is now long on gold on a close of 890 or if it stays above it for few hours.


"As for gold, we will shock our clients around the world as
we chose once again to turn bullish of the yellow metal.
We had hoped to see gold trade down to $820 or so as
the late long who've been holding to their position. hoping
to be bailed out, are not and are left to liquidate into
panic. However, it now appears that the drive downward
through $850 earlier this month was sufficient and that
order has been restored. The recent gold sales from the
signatories to the Washington Agreement have been
uncommonly small and that has tended to raise our
bullish antennae accordingly. Toss into that the fact that
the dollar is beginning to weaken once again, and toss in
that the future notion that the general commodities
market indices are still trending higher and we have the
ammunition needed to rejoin the bullish hunt.
Thus, we'll buy one unit of gold this morning upon receipt
of this commentary, and on a close above $890... or if
spot gold should trade above $890 for an hour or two to
prove the merit of its move... we'll add a second unit. ."

"As noted above, we wish to
return to the gold market from the long side. Having exited from all of
out gold back in mid-late April at or near $945-$950, it is reasonable that
we should be looking to buy back that which we had sold. Certainly in
retrospect we wish we'd had the courage to buy when spot gold traded
below $850 for an instant earlier this month, but we are not that wise..
nor that lucky. As we write, spot gold is trading at or very near to $880,
and we'll buy it "at the market." One unit shall suffice for now."

http://www.cfsfutures.com/images/E0067301/051608.pdf

 

[davidj123]

That sounded like a poem, if only gold could go to one thousand.

Well that's as poetic as I get, I think the US is dreamin that they are not in a resession and I they will get a weaker ( $ ), GOLD will go up to, let's say $1200.00 as a new high. Time will tell

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Reporting I was stopped on my shorts!

I was wrong! but this don't mean I am bullish!

 

[explod]

Reporting I was stopped on my shorts!

I was wrong! but this don't mean I am bullish!

Not very bold in view of where oil and now the dollar is going. Its about money, and gold is a currency. People lump it with being a commodity. Because it was held down artificially as oil rose it has a bit of catching up. My betting is that it will end trading tonight at US$899 then pick up the strings later next week.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Not very bold in view of where oil and now the dollar is going. Its about money, and gold is a currency. People lump it with being a commodity. Because it was held down artificially as oil rose it has a bit of catching up. My betting is that it will end trading tonight at US$899 then pick up the strings later next week.

ha ha ha

You throwing prices around now explod! nice to see.

Mate prices are to buy and sell off. I don't quote em no more. see what happens, chart will tell us what to do.

Nice thoughts, personally I don't really care what it does or what people think it is or is not. It's just a market it I'll show us what to do just have to wait and listen.

Below chart is what I trade off. No thoughts, if I get a buy signal I buy if it's a sell I sell. Simple as that no thinking just watching and listening then acting. Nice and simple and a hell of a lot less reading! But I must admit I do check all news releases that are coming out, as some I won't hold a position on. (one of my rules)

Cheers

 

[explod]

ha ha ha

You throwing prices around now explod! nice to see.

Mate prices are to buy and sell off. I don't quote em no more. see what happens, chart will tell us what to do.

Nice thoughts, personally I don't really care what it does or what people think it is or is not. It's just a market it I'll show us what to do just have to wait and listen.

cheers

I agree and do follow the market sentiment which is anticipated best by following, in my case the chart. However it does help to follow the value of the market as well. The US dollar has lost its value so is going down. (Oil is just a symptom, takes more dollars to buy a barrell) Currency traders would not agree because they follow charts and the technical indicators. Gold in (or as a) reserve holds its value.

Most of the G7(as we discussed earlier) want out of US dollars and have stopped selling gold, in fact are starting to accumulate it. Middle East refusing to take US$. Could go on but so much to it, need more kip.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Currency traders would not agree because they follow charts and the technical indicators. Gold in (or as a) reserve holds its value.

If I was trading Gold I would trade it the exact same way i am trading FX. I would trade the Spot price but i may have to up my time frame to allow for the .50 cent spread to fit in with my MM.

to me a market is a market.

 

[explod]

If I was trading Gold I would trade it the exact same way i am trading FX. I would trade the Spot price but i may have to up my time frame to allow for the .50 cent spread to fit in with my MM.

to me a market is a market.

OK, point taken. I invest or trade longer term. Mostly have physical gold (not prcatical to change that often) for the long term. Began accumulating 2004 and will hold for some years to come. A big spike, say US$2,500 may take some profit. So I see the whole thing from a different view point. On the ASX I only hold two penny dreadfuls at this time, again for the longer term.

I do take an active interest in the charts short term but only as a support to my fundamental outlook. In some ways it would be better if there were two different threads. I should not enter the short term debate perhaps but if I see things going very much the other way cant help myself. Feathers stick out too much.

 

[refined silver]

I was wrong! but this don't mean I am bullish!

Nice to hear! Does this mean you've given up on the $600 targets? Or just for now? Does it also mean you were wrong about the obnoxious abusive emails you sent also?

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Nice to hear! Does this mean you've given up on the $600 targets? Or just for now? Does it also mean you were wrong about the obnoxious abusive emails you sent also?

No not at all RS,

I have a firm set of trading beliefs that may not be shared by yourself or other members. I have developed these beliefs form my trading and from the books I have read. I am a strong believer in the words and teachings of Mark Douglas I have read trading in the zone twice now, now about to read disciplined trader. I have no issue in being wrong it's just as good to be wrong as it's to be right. No matter how good my analysis no trade is any thing more then a random event. A 50/50 were I believe the odds are in my favor but it's never a sure thing.

I stand by the PM I sent you and all the comments I have made. they may have been harsh in your eyes but I if you look deeper into my comments I am really trying to teach you some new skills.

As stated to Explod,

I do trade with numbers in target form. I only trade what presents itself on my chart. So again my thoughts on were Gold is headed are just guesses like anyone else.

I am not bullish on gold yet. this rally is showing buying support no doubt about it. but again if it fails to make a a good lower high or a wave 1 2 then start a three I can't say It's confrimation. This could still be a thrust that fails to make a new high and continues down. So it's time to wait and watch.

Cheers
Joseph