Gold Price - Where is it heading?

Temjin · 15 May 2008

professor_frink said:
In regards to the part above I put in bold, think about how that could be linked to some of the comments below you are saying is manipulation.

So you are claiming that I believe these commercial producers or users are "manipulating" the prices for a legitimate price risk hedging purposes?

I am asking why these "8 or less" traders, who are definitely NOT a commercial producers or users, are holding 83% of the short contracts? The CFTC have already said that they cannot disclose the identities of these traders and the motives behind them. It is against their policy. They simply said, "We know that these traders are legitimate because of yadda yadda reasons, but it is against the law for me to provide evidences to back our reasons, so just trust us, ok?".

So you can see how this conspiracy theory never dies down.

Regardless, I don't care if this manipulation is true or not, the underlying fundamental of gold/silver are already bullish enough. Trade if your believe in it, or just trade with your own system and ignore the rest.

professor_frink · 15 May 2008

Temjin said:
So you are claiming that I believe these commercial producers or users are "manipulating" the prices for a legitimate price risk hedging purposes?

No

I'm quite tired today. Perhaps I'm not making much sense.

Temjin said:
I am asking why these "8 or less" traders, who are definitely NOT a commercial producers or users, are holding 83% of the short contracts? The CFTC have already said that they cannot disclose the identities of these traders and the motives behind them. It is against their policy. They simply said, "We know that these traders are legitimate because of yadda yadda reasons, but it is against the law for me to provide evidences to back our reasons, so just trust us, ok?".

So you can see how this conspiracy theory never dies down.

Regardless, I don't care if this manipulation is true or not, the underlying fundamental of gold/silver are already bullish enough. Trade if your believe in it, or just trade with your own system and ignore the rest.

You neglected to mention that these large punters weren't commercial in your earlier post. I think I'll leave you alone now, this could go on forever

Temjin · 15 May 2008

professor_frink said:
No

I'm quite tired today. Perhaps I'm not making much sense.

You neglected to mention that these large punters weren't commercial in your earlier post. I think I'll leave you alone now, this could go on forever

I forgot to mention it, so my apologies.

So back to the originator (MS4N) asking about what happened to that particular price action in his attached graph, ok, I don't really know and I will take back my claim that it is definitely being manipulated. I will merely hint that there is a possibility it was being manipulated and I based it on observed past patterns (yes, it always seem to occur at 9-10am for some reasons) and the claims put forward by these "bugs". (who might be biased as well!)

Yes, let's leave it alone on this theory for now and get back to more analytical discussion.

Trembling Hand · 15 May 2008

Temjin will work on getting more data for that 1st 2 hour NY time back test before I post yah or nah. Only have 3 good months intraday.

But that stat of drops in the first hour is one you find in most bull markets. Gains are made during the Over Night gaps. The average point gain for the ASX200 and S&P 500 during the day from 04 to 08 was Nothing all the gain was in the gap.

Have a look ,here

Will get the stats together soon on gold.

professor_frink · 15 May 2008

Temjin said:
I forgot to mention it, so my apologies.

So back to the originator (MS4N) asking about what happened to that particular price action in his attached graph, ok, I don't really know and I will take back my claim that it is definitely being manipulated. I will merely hint that there is a possibility it was being manipulated and I based it on observed past patterns (yes, it always seem to occur at 9-10am for some reasons) and the claims put forward by these "bugs". (who might be biased as well!)

Yes, let's leave it alone on this theory for now and get back to more analytical discussion.

To get it onto a more analytical side Temjin, could you explain for me exactly which part of the COT data you got this 83% figure from?

I just can't find anywhere where you would find that info???

The latest COT report has a figure for the % of OI held by the largest 8 traders. I can't find where this figure is broken down into commercials/non commercials?

rederob · 15 May 2008

Temjin said:
Tell me which markets have only 8 or less traders that control 80% of the volume?

The COT report for gold/silver obviously indicate that these "8 or less" traders are holding 80%+ of the short contracts. And has stepped up the concentration ever since gold was in bull market.

Why would these traders, or rather, the central banks and investment banks, are holding such a massive concentration of shorts? What are their reasons for it? Obviously, those holding the longs are the commercials (producers!), hedge funds and private individuals.

Not readily determinable from the published data:

CamKawa · 15 May 2008

Looks like since the start of the correction the commercials have stepped up to the buying plate and the large investors have headed for the exit. Explod, that's you in the red (small spec) holding firm

barrett · 15 May 2008

Volume data is indicating a huge rally tonight

wayneL · 15 May 2008

barrett said:
Volume data is indicating a huge rally tonight

How is it doing that?

barrett · 15 May 2008

In the usual way! Volume spikes come in on the rallies..

wayneL · 15 May 2008

barrett said:
In the usual way! Volume spikes come in on the rallies..

...and the selloffs....and the headfakes.

Nice move however.

wayneL · 15 May 2008

barrett said:
Volume data is indicating a huge rally tonight

Nice call BTW... 20 buck move.

Whiskers · 15 May 2008

It's having a bit of a poke a bit higher as I post, but I doubt it will do much better for now. I'm still expecting it to pretty much mark time a bit lower for a few more months until the USD re-aligns itself a bit stronger.

Prolly just a final nervious gasp up before the US stock markets open.

PS: Actually, I think the last top a few days ago could probably qualify as an evening (double) star... (double) doomed to fail.

PPS: Yeah good pick... but did you get out before it crashes again?

rederob · 15 May 2008

wayneL said:
Nice call BTW... 20 buck move.

Yes, sharp.
Oil led the charge many hours before - now in the mid $125s again.

MRC & Co · 15 May 2008

Very nice move, I hope you were on board Barrett!

barrett · 16 May 2008

I was, but closing out now at 886 spot.. could go higher tonight but I'd be surprised too..

still no idea what changed so radically in the fundamentals.. Iran just bombed Riyadh? Perth Mint announce a free 'erotic massage' with every ounce sold? Is it just the institutional traders playing games?

Maybe the move between 2nd-14th May was an impulse move up I and correction II... and i of III is finishing around now.
If that count is right, there would probably be a pullback, ii of III, into say the high 870s over the next day or so, then iii of III breaks through 900 within the next week. So probably looking to go long again on a pullback in the next day or two depending on the market action..

I don't think that bullish count necessarily picks an argument with the more bearish predictions for this correction because there can be sharp counter-trend rallies. Not usually impulses but could be. After all gold typically finds a bottom around this time OR often around August which is still several months away and the correction won't go in a straight line even if heading lower..

PS Whiskers, I'm not much chop on candlesticks but is that a morning star doji yesterday on your daily chart? At least if today closes up?

josjes · 16 May 2008

Jim sinclair says Hello for Gold Bull

Dear CIGAs,

Gold hit the bottom of this reaction on Thursday, April 28th. It has a great deal of work to do, but do it, gold will.

There is no question in my mind but that gold will try $1000 from the April 28th low, fail, come back fast and succeed.

To keep it simple:

* No Bear market in the euro.
* No Bull market in the US dollar.
* No top in Gold.

All else is the daily dose of spin and cover up.

Whiskers · 16 May 2008

barrett said:
I was, but closing out now at 886 spot..

Good job. Ya nailed that one.

PS Whiskers, I'm not much chop on candlesticks but is that a morning star doji yesterday on your daily chart? At least if today closes up?

Nah, It needed to gap up at the open of that candle by more than 50c.

CamKawa · 16 May 2008

Dollar rally, leaks put fresh focus on G7 meetings

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Currency traders now suspect U.S. and European finance officials of some atypical arm-twisting to support the U.S. dollar at last month's G7 meeting, a gathering that initially made little splash in currency markets.

Gains of 2% to 5% in the U.S. dollar from a key low point last month, combined with recent press statements from anonymous senior finance officials, have fostered suspicions that the group of industrialized nations backed up their public statements with some backdoor negotiations.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...x?guid={865DEDE5-6B7C-4EA9-A3C3-33FDFBD858F2}

explod · 16 May 2008

CamKawa said:
Dollar rally, leaks put fresh focus on G7 meetings

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Currency traders now suspect U.S. and European finance officials of some atypical arm-twisting to support the U.S. dollar at last month's G7 meeting, a gathering that initially made little splash in currency markets.

Gains of 2% to 5% in the U.S. dollar from a key low point last month, combined with recent press statements from anonymous senior finance officials, have fostered suspicions that the group of industrialized nations backed up their public statements with some backdoor negotiations.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...x?guid={865DEDE5-6B7C-4EA9-A3C3-33FDFBD858F2}

The G7 have grave concerns because they hold so many US dollars. This from the mid May Privateer:-

"The US 2006 deficit was $US 811.5 Billion. This is the one which the US has to seek foreign funds from right around the world to cover on an ongoing basis. Foreign central banks now own 53 percent of US Treasury debt while 64 percent of their total foreign currency reserves are held in US Dollars. As a centre of economic or monetary financial gravity, the US is a hollow shell, dependant on inflows of foreign funds of $US 1 TRILLION annually"

[end quote]

One day soon there will be a rush to unload the $US, when that day comes the gold price will rocket up beyond what even gold bugs expect. Even with the recent rhetoric of the G7 behind the scenes to the spruikers one can almost feel the dollar wanting to fall and the gold price wanting to break out.

Interesting times

Gold Price - Where is it heading?

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