Gold Price - Where is it heading?

refined silver said:

Wavepicker, Apolcalypto et al, at what point would you suggest the $690ish target has been missed and was wrong?

I know some have suggested a small bounce, so at what point does the small bounce become a reversal?

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Ive noticed most of the short term "trader" types on this forum seem to over estimate to the downside and under estimate to the up...i assume its got something to do with the mentality of short term trading.:dunno:

Minimizing the downside risk and protecting profit on the up side.

barrett said:

I'm in at 866 it looks like the pullback is over..

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what makes you say that? double bottom near 865?

Well everything has gone stone silent. The US$ index's tepid recovery seems to be over, the gold price seems to have consolidated off support and getting back in step with oil ??

Maybe we are due for an announcement for that Great Freedom Fighter "Big Chief Burnin Bush" Yeeeeeeeee Haaaaaaaaa. and we will be saved again.

kransky said:

what makes you say that? double bottom near 865?

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yes that, then moved up on high volume, then broke & pulled back to a shorter-term resistance line on the 1-min..
Afterwards confirmed with v high volume on the up....

On the hourly, the RSI reached overbought territory and had a nonconfirmation in the past 24 hours.. if it breaks the trend in the chart below to the downside, would be more evidence for a consolidation over the next day and maybe a chance to short for a scalp at least..

after that the rally might continue another day or two since the candlestick situation looks bullish on the daily?

I still stand by my last post. the price is making a retrace just as thought. what will tell me my answer is what happens on the next wave of selling. I still stand towards bearish

I'm back in at roughly 860ish as well, but only have a shorter term focus on this particular trade until the weekly signal become more evident.

On the hourly chart, the 4-day uptrend has been broken to the downside about half an hour ago, and retraced to the breakdown point at 875. The RSI continued its nonconfirmation. So in theory I would expect this is a good time to cover longs or go short here at 875 spot......but let's see what actually happens...

US dollar continues to show weakness so gold can only go up. Silver leading the way again finally which is a secondary indicator, gold will follow and it is.

It has been said many times that gold with its unique intrinsic value will defy the normal laws of analysis, and it is.

We are entering bad economic times and throughtout history gold has allways rallied at such times, and it is.
.

Not knowing to much about how gold prices work, what effect (if any) would the IMF sale of 400tonnes au potentially have on this market?

Tukker said:

Not knowing to much about how gold prices work, what effect (if any) would the IMF sale of 400tonnes au potentially have on this market?

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The following should help.



Tight Supply Causing Gold Bull Market, Central Bank Sales Not a Concern
By Dan Denning • September 27th, 2007 • Related Articles • Filed Under
About the Author
Dan Denning is the author of 2005's best-selling The Bull Hunter (John Wiley & Sons). A specialist in small-cap stocks, Dan draws on his network of global contacts from his base in Melbourne, Australia and pens the small cap newsletter, The Australian Small Cap Investigator. He is also a contributing editor to the Australian resource investing publication Diggers & Drillers.

See All Articles by This Author

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Filed Under: Market
Despite BHP (ASX:BHP) upgrading gold reserves at the Olympic Dam yesterday from 71 to 78 million ounces, the relative tightness in gold supply””both mine and above ground gold””is one reason gold analyst Martin Murenbeeld is predicting an average gold price of US$823/oz in 2008.

Speaking at a gold conference not far from where we grew up in Denver, Colorado, Murenbeeld gave eight reasons he believes gold is in a bull market. One””that it is NOT the US dollar””would be good enough for us. But Murenbeeld makes some other points worth noting.

First, he believes the house price trouble in the US may spread to other countries that have even worse housing fundamentals than Team America. The economic aftershocks of housing stress in other countries will prompt similar reactions from other central banks””lower interest rates. When the money supply grows faster than the gold supply, inflation ensues.

“US house prices are not as stretched as elsewhere because house prices are out of line in Europe as well. That means the housing problems in the US have a very good chance of going around the developed world,” Murenbeeld says. He is not especially worried about central bank gold sales, a possibility we mentioned last week.

“The amount of loose gold in the central bank system is modest. It amounts to about 4,000 tonnes that is available to be traded out of total holdings of 30,383 tonnes. That 4,000 tons was a worry back in the 1990s when countries like Argentina sold their gold stocks down to zero. Now, it seems Argentina actually wants to buy gold. Reality is that central bankers seem to be very much like ordinary people. They sell gold at the low point and buy it at the high point.”

We conceded the point. Central bankers are people too. Most people buy when they should sell and sell when they should buy. Just ask Gordon Brown, the man who sold Britain’s gold at the bottom of the gold bear market. Think the Bank of England, while it’s busy writing blank cheques to distressed mortgage lenders, would like to have that gold back now?

Murenbeeld’s first reason to like gold in 2008 is the best one. The organised attempt to keep the credit bubble from rapidly deflating is officially underway. Bond traders are already anticipating another Fed rate cut in short-term rates by pushing up long-term rates. The bond market anticipates the Fed’s inflationary policy by demanding higher yields.

“As a result,” writes Bill Barnhart in the Chicago Tribune, “the interest rate gap between 2-year Treasury notes and 10-year Treasury notes has widened significantly in recent days. The trend indicates an inflationary economy, not one where businesses and investors fear recession. The relationship of long-term Treasuries to short-term Treasuries apparently reflects an anxious shift in the investment preferences of international investors. The latest monthly report on money flows by foreigners in and out of US debt securities in July shows wholesale abandonment of long-dated Treasury securities and corporate bonds in favour of Treasury bills.”

Gold doesn’t yield anything, of course. But it generally moves in the opposite direction to the US dollar. Gold up. Dollar down.

The other excellent point made by Mr. Murenbeeld is that the dollar’s decline is forcing a reallocation of global foreign currency reserves””which total some US$5 trillion. If you want out to get out of the dollar, what do you get into? The euro? The Aussie dollar? Commodity futures? Resource stocks? Probably some of each, which is good news for Aussie investors, who stand to benefit from the reallocation of global currency reserves.

Dan Denning
The Daily Reckoning Australia

barrett said:

after that the rally might continue another day or two since the candlestick situation looks bullish on the daily?

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Even though it's going sideways now, I give it til Friday US trading to hit or clear $900 within this channel, then maybe resume/complete descending wedge, otherwise extremely bullish if it breaks & passes $900? Depends how much ammo the CB's have left?

This rally has been a struggle IMO. If that is all that Gold has, then the resumption of the bear trend looks intact.

Too early to call with high probability at this stage but theis pattern of trend does not look impulsive in my eyes and I expect the USD to continue it's rally soon. A break and consolidation above the USD Index level of 75 would be significant in my eyes. No evidence to close out shorts at this stage.

Cheers

>Apocalypto< said:

I am not a Elliotition so I can not post any thing on Wavepickers behalf. This are my thoughts

If the price makes a higher low that is a sign to me that the down move has hit a hiccup. as a guide a bounce off a fib point also adds to the lower high. one thing i look for is were the new rally gets to. does the high enter into the previous support zone or dose it start to fail below it that gives trend a normal movement.

bounces fail when they start to sell down again. If it stops and starts to buy back up then u could say it's found support and it's formed a lower high (bullish) common in fast moves down are impulsive retracement up that are very strong and vertical once they fail they sell down faster and a break of the low confirms to degree that the move down is continuing.

I have put in three technical ideas I have for Gold. the support it's sitting on now and the area it made last support hold alot of sway for me. time is needed to confirm each idea. I see a bounce coming on Gold and on the EUR/USD but I still lean towards more selling to lower lows. time will tell.

1. trend up resumes.
2. trend cont down.
3. trend cont down.

like i have said before I don't trade like this any more, so this is just personal analysis.

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Gold has confirmed my second thought failed at the last support that's now resistance. normal trend is confirmed. I did not want to miss this so even though it's demo i have started to short in with two contracts. if it breaks the low i will be filled on 2 more via order to open.

right now the trend is continuing down. i personally don't think u will see your $900 for a while. but u never know.

good shorting

wavepicker said:

This rally has been a struggle IMO. If that is all that Gold has, then the resumption of the bear trend looks intact.

Too early to call with high probability at this stage but theis pattern of trend does not look impulsive in my eyes and I expect the USD to continue it's rally soon. A break and consolidation above the USD Index level of 75 would be significant in my eyes. No evidence to close out shorts at this stage.

Cheers

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Yes, it is struggling, lost momentum now. Something happened right on the hour that took the wind out of gold, $AU & oil on thin trade though. I can see these ascending and descending wedges forming in a few things, something is going to happen within a few days? (I think DOW will correct)

explod said:

Well everything has gone stone silent.

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some times it's best to wait before you open your mouth Explod

patterns need time to confirm nothing is that black and white in the markets. maybe all those reports u read are clouding your vision. (black and white.)

on the same token i may be wrong in a day or two as well. that's trading.

>Apocalypto< said:

some times it's best to wait before you open your mouth Explod

patterns need time to confirm nothing is that black and white in the markets. maybe all those reports u read are clouding your vision. (black and white.)

on the same token i may be wrong in a day or two as well. that's trading.

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Dont' worry, the Wall Street spinners will get onto something to hold it down. It is a political hot potatoe.

But the silence at the time was interesting to me as it all seems to stop at crossroads. For all the assertiveness the short term is very hard to pick.

explod said:

Dont' worry, the Wall Street spinners will get onto something to hold it down. It is a political hot potatoe.

But the silence at the time was interesting to me as it all seems to stop at crossroads. For all the assertiveness the short term is very hard to pick.

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LOL explod there anit no conspiracy it's a market mate it goes up down sideways. all i am doing is acting of what i am being told to do either i am right or wrong i don't know that yet but the market will show me soon. that's it mate no thinking no guessing i just follow.

explod said:

Dont' worry, the Wall Street spinners will get onto something to hold it down. It is a political hot potatoe.

But the silence at the time was interesting to me as it all seems to stop at crossroads. For all the assertiveness the short term is very hard to pick.

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Explod, I feel sorry for you. Just trade the market mate and forget all the Wall St hype, otherwise you will implod.

wavepicker said:

Explod, I feel sorry for you. Just trade the market mate and forget all the Wall St hype, otherwise you will implod.

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Thanks to both of you above. I am not a trader. A reasonable investor in the longer to medium term and in that I do quite well.

However I have always been a compassionate political animal for 40 years and of late have become very interested in the manipulation across world markets. Of the extent that political machines (for want of better description) are the creation of the money holders (Rothchilds et al).

You would both be aware that many times I have said that gold will not rise a great deal till the presidential election at the end of the year and I stick by that.

First and formost this thread is about gold's direction. Short term t/a seems to dominate and I try to offer discussion. My fuse sticks out a bit at times and goes off well when lit.

My investing is done by following the trend at all times so I wonder at the confusion of others sometimes. I sold down the blue chip gold stocks weeks ago and apart from my long term hold of physical I am playing only some small caps. One of them is doing well in the Stock Tip Comp too.