Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[Trembling Hand]

You can be sure that the PPP are accumulating/playing (short and long) this market for ammuntion to dump in line with thier releases of spin. It is about the only ammunition they have left to stave off a very dire situation from their viewpoint.

Can you explain what you mean by "accumulating/playing (short and long)"? Are you saying long one market, short another? Or short and long the same market which makes no sense!

 

[barrett]

Here's a US is going to 0% pep talk from Dr Marc Faber. Head for the video links on the right.
http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2007/s2193110.htm

Thanks for posting this. One point he brings up is the massive derivatives market, which dwarfs subprime, Alt-A and every other market, and has yet not really been involved in this meltdown.

The Fed is aware of this threat and there's one thing I'm quite sure of - the Fed will do anything - absolutely anything - to prevent the financial system collapsing. Among other things, they could write interest rate option contracts, buy bad debt, drop interest rates to zero, and eventually monetise (print money to buy) treasury bonds. In one official Fed paper they even suggest 'money rains' - basically handing out cash.. in another, creating deeply negative real interest rates by imposing a say, 1% monthly 'carry tax' on paper currency and deposits to try and force consumption and investment. The question of whether or not interest rates will go to zero is only part of the picture, given that Ben Bernanke has made a career of studying monetary stimuli other than rate cuts.

For a brief review of these 'Unconventional Measures' there's a great article on Faber's website http://www.gloomboomdoom.com/public/pSTD.cfm?pageSPS_ID=1000
Click on "Towards Hyperinflation" PDF on the right of the page, the article starts on p.5, it's called "Unconventional Measures:Bernankeism and the Destruction of the Dollar" by Robert Blumen.

I think it's important for every gold investor to read over this. It spells out the extent of the Fed's intent and means to prevent, and even reverse, asset price deflation. Every one of the 'unconventional measures' is highly inflationary.

As mentioned above, there's an election coming up this year and huge fiscal stimuli are in preparation, which will also be very bullish for gold..

 

[szandor]

Just a question,if someone had cash and wanted to physically buy gold bars,what would be the best way about doing so in sydney?

 

[imagineer]

just a question,if someone had cash and wanted to physically buy gold bars,what would be the best way about doing so in sydney?

ABC Bullion in the city check yelloewpages for bullion dealers.
Neil

 

[szandor]

so what kind of levels do people think gold will reach in the next 6-12 months,iam thinking of investing cash which is currently sitting in a term deposit and buying as much gold as possible???

 

[Uncle Festivus]

just a question,if someone had cash and wanted to physically buy gold bars,what would be the best way about doing so in sydney?

• AGR Matthey
  Level 2, 112 Castlereagh St Sydney NSW 2000
  ph: 1800 068 335
• Alloy & Gold Supply (NSW) Pty Ltd
  Suite 505A, 5th Floor, Trust Building, 155 King Street Sydney NSW 2000 ph: (02) 9261 4404
• Australian Bullion Company
  Suite 30, Level 6, 88 Pitt St Sydney NSW 2000
  ph: (02) 9231 4511
• Jaggard's Est 1963
  Level 8, 74 Pitt St Sydney NSW 2000 - map
  ph: (02) 9230 0886

Matthey are very helpful

 

[explod]

Can you explain what you mean by "accumulating/playing (short and long)" are you saying long one market, short another. or short and long the same market which makes no sense!

They back off when gold price goes up and just before exhaustion bring out bullish news for the Dow then dump gold and go short. When it hits the bottom of the move, as now, they would be buying back in to go long.

The PPP would be working with the media, markets and the Fed to achieve these objectives IMHO. They know only too well that the drop of the Fed rate soon sells of the US$, (as it is, down half a % today) and continually run the average investor on a break.

After their (US) market closed this morning they performed a typical dump, as Asia has come back in it has been gradually rising all day. The next upmove is starting and looks like we have a new support at US$980

It is all worth having a good think about.

As we have said, the next few days will be interesting times indeed.

 

[MRC & Co]

I agree explod.

No doubt in my mind this is done, its a quiet well known fact.

RBA does similar things with AUD etc and historically they have made a HECK of a lot of $$ doing it!

Funny how there are rules to stop manipulation of the markets, unless of course its the rulemakers doing it themselves! Go free markets and capitalism at their brilliant best!

 

[Trembling Hand]

It is all worth having a good think about.

You reckon!!

Just looking at volume during US & Asian times your theory makes little sense.
To be able to smash a market during a high volume session (the US) and reckon you can then cover and go long during Asian time (when vol is about 5% of US) is ridiculous.

 

[MRC & Co]

You reckon!!

Just looking at volume during US & Asian times your theory makes little sense.
To be able to smash a market during a high volume session (the US) and reckon you can then cover and go long during Asian time (when vol is about 5% of US) is ridiculous.

Perhaps buying after they have caused a reasonable sized fall, most large red candles subsequently have quiet a tale.

Though, I dont factor any of these kind of things into my trading, so dont look into it in too much depth.

However, it is undeniable IMHO that the authorities that be do manipulate markets as they see fit, within their reach.

Cheers

 

[explod]

You reckon!!

Just looking at volume during US & Asian times your theory makes little sense.
To be able to smash a market during a high volume session (the US) and reckon you can then cover and go long during Asian time (when vol is about 5% of US) is ridiculous.

Yep, I am referring to swing plays of a week or fortnight duration. I have been watch the PPP work this out over the last three years, and yes, playing us for suckers.

 

[Kauri]

The ubiquitous "profit-taking" may actually explain the recent, and not so recent, retraces in golds fortunes. Hedge funds, commodity funds, institutions, maybe even CB's, needing funds for margin calls.. (e.g.RubiT).. balancing of exposure, liquidity needs, or even plain old computer driven trading profit-take levels, but maybe lumping it all under Plunge Protection Peam gives us that sense of conspiracy that we seem to thrive on... I thunk..
Cheers
.........Kauri

P.S..
and why is POG now rising???... is the PPP/T now finished selling... is it bargain hunters... is it fears bred of rumours of a UK bank in trouble and now also a hedge fund... or is it just that it is due to rise because it has fallen enough????
Whatever, trade the swings and roundabouts as they appear (from a short-termer)...

 

[MRC & Co]

I agree also Kauri, could well be.

This is why I only trade the price action and dont factor in these kind of things into my trading.

 

[rederob]

..
and why is POG now rising???... is the PPP/T now finished selling... is it bargain hunters... is it fears bred of rumours of a UK bank in trouble and now also a hedge fund... or is it just that it is due to rise because it has fallen enough????
Whatever, trade the swings and roundabouts as they appear (from a short-termer)...

It's rising because the underlying bull trend will keep it rising!
It will fall whenever it stops rising because any reason to sell more than buy will reduce its price!
From a long termer, it's not too late to get in and enjoy the ride until the US economy proverbially shi.ts itself: It certainly already has runs on the Big Board.
For the near term there does not look like a major retrace will occur, albeit daily falls in excess of a 3% range will remain play while market volatility continues.
I am amused by people that are speculating on the US economy soon turning around because Fed cuts trick investors into plunging their money into underperforming US equities.
Bernanke has a few pet cats, and will ensure he gives each a testing 9 bounces. So beware the sucker rallies: There more than one coming to a market you trade.

 

[Kauri]

It's rising because the underlying bull trend will keep it rising!
It will fall whenever it stops rising because any reason to sell more than buy will reduce its price!
.

maybe however....The rumors about a U.K. bank in trouble are morphing toward HBOS now with trading in the bank"s shares suspended limit down. Joining the party is also vague talk about Credit Suisse potentially having an interest in UBS, perhaps even at the prompting of the Swiss government.
Swings and roundabouts... it's probably only the PPP/T?

Busy.. very very busy...
...................................Kauri

 

[Kauri]

maybe however....The rumors about a U.K. bank in trouble are morphing toward HBOS now with trading in the bank"s shares suspended limit down. Joining the party is also vague talk about Credit Suisse potentially having an interest in UBS, perhaps even at the prompting of the Swiss government.
Swings and roundabouts... it's probably only the PPP/T?

Busy.. very very busy...
...................................Kauri

rumour of a possible 09:00GMT announcement from the BoE.... talk of a friendly merger betwixt SocGen and Uber discounted... for now...
Cheers
............Kauri

 

[CamKawa]

So beware the sucker rallies: There more than one coming to a market you trade.

I agree there will be no sustained rally in equities until house prices in the US turn around.

Just think if you were looking at buying a house in the US at the moment. If say you are a renter, you would be enjoying the 3 months free rent the landlord may have given you to in order to get you to sign up for 12 months. Then you would have to give this up to buy a home, then be willing to pay more for it than what is worth recently after you secure a loan in the face of tightening lending standards, while not considering rising unemployment with media constantly yelling the R word at you. It's a fair sort of an ask for a new home buyer.

Then there are investors. If they buy an investment property who are they going to rent it out to and how much rent are they going to get? Will they have a choice of tenants let alone find a good one?

I was looking at this site today http://www.realtor.com/realtytimes/...opview/homejs.htm?open&pID=r.com2&poe=realtor which gives some feed back on the state of the market. Some Real Estate Agents are saying that they have 6 months worth of houses on their books at the current selling rate, while others are saying they have 13 months. Yes that's right, even if no new houses came onto the market it would take 13 months for them to sell all their existing stock

Those people who buy equities now must be looking *really* long and why bother when precious metals are giving a positive return now?

 

[Trembling Hand]

Isn't this fun!! Another one of those high vol down bars. Who woulda thought?

 

[MRC & Co]

WOW, New York opens and BOOM! Below $970! Following nice trading from Asia!

Downward bias now for 3 consecutive days as New York trading opens!

TH, are you trading (selling) gold futures, or your just in here to rub it in? What team are you on!?

 

[explod]

Yep, I am referring to swing plays of a week or fortnight duration. I have been watch the PPP work this out over the last three years, and yes, playing us for suckers.

And they have done it well this time. US$ index has barely moved. This is no more than a sell off to show the sheeple who is in charge.