Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[Sean K]

Which is what I thought would happen. Glad I didn't buy yesterday
USD is up ... well, let's see if she holds.

Heli Ben indicated more cuts if required. USD is in serious trouble (well, has been and is) with oil so high as well. Perhaps just a correction in gold.

 

[treefrog]

And on every rate cut gold has gone up and if you do a bit of study, as you should before you invest in what I say, you will find it to be almost absolute.

Investing is as simple as that. Read Warren Buffet to find out more on that. My mantra is, "keep it simple stupid"

But I can assure you that when I notice the underlying fundamentals go against gold, as well as the trend I will be out in a flash.

Although you appear to aver otherwise I think you need to get into a bit more study on the subject.

And another great piece of Buffet dogma, "do not invest in anything that you do not fully understand" A bit like measure twice cut once.

I take it that's a big "Arrrr Crap" now then Ex??

 

[Nyden]

Heli Ben indicated more cuts if required. USD is in serious trouble (well, has been and is) with oil so high as well. Perhaps just a correction in gold.

Well, of course he indicated that. He wants the markets to rally; no sense in a rate cut if it's perceived as something bad by the people ... the people need the idea of that free lunch.

I truly don't believe they'll go down the path of 0% rates, & in the end they'll be forced to admit to a recession, & let nature run its course.

One has to assume that BB is not a complete idiot. He must have an expertise in his field, an excellent education, & must have a strong understanding of what he is doing. Surely the rest of his lot would be disagreeing with him, left right & center if he was as utterly clueless as many seem to make him out to be.

I don't believe him to be making the right choices at the moment, but one of these days the shoe is going to fall; & the fed will announce no rate cuts. What will happen at that point? If the punters have factored in a 1% cut, or .5, will the dollar soar; & gold collapse?

I did of course refer to if she'll hold in the very-short term, I don't expect the USD to hold ground for long


... Too early in the morning, where's my coffee :


- The concept of an indication, is that it's not set in stone. It's all about interpretation, & perception ... and he can quite easily 'backflip' on it.

 

[CamKawa]

Well I’m feeling a bit shocked after last nights developments. The DOW is up +3.51% to 420.41 its fourth largest point gain ever and the USD is up +0.59 cents 71.95. The spot POG has dropped from the 1020’s in London trading down to 978’s in NY. I can’t see the USD rallying for terribly long though and oil is up +3.10 to 108.78. I think the POG may make a come back after the equities hysteria has calmed down.

So who’s got a faith in gold stronger than their religion and will buy some more today? It’s only logical, buy when the price is low and sell when the price is high.

 

[rederob]

I truly don't believe they'll go down the path of 0% rates, & in the end they'll be forced to admit to a recession, & let nature run its course.

Your belief will be tested.
I am about 99% certain of zero %.

 

[cuttlefish]

The wall street rally might actually drag some gold stocks higher today.
I don't see any change in the fundamentals for gold or the USD - they've just announced even more money being fed into the system, they're propping up banks instead of letting them go bust - they're providing the USD like monopoly money - at some point that has to devalue it. Best to wait till the correction exhausts itself though rather than jumping on it too soon.

 

[CamKawa]

Best to wait till the correction exhausts itself though rather than jumping on it too soon.

Care to give a time frame?

 

[wayneL]

Your belief will be tested.
I am about 99% certain of zero %.

Say it ain't so!!!

Actually, it's not far to go, and they've used a hell of a lot of ammo.... and the game is still in the first quarter.

(with apologies for the mixed metaphor)

 

[Sean K]

Say it ain't so!!!

Actually, it's not far to go, and they've used a hell of a lot of ammo.... and the game is still in the first quarter.

(with apologies for the mixed metaphor)

I agree that the stone will keep rolling till there's some seriously spilt milk. But 0%? Hmmm

 

[MRC & Co]

I agree that the stone will keep rolling till there's some seriously spilt milk. But 0%? Hmmm

Yeh, this is not a liquidity trap (even then monetary policy is not effective), its stagflation.

I cannot see 0%. Split Fed today and their mention of inflation is an obvious indication of their intentions. 1% maybe, just to leave some ammo in the gun.

As for POG, disappointing! However, not to worry, fundamentals are still just as intact as ever! Funds just realise where the bounce will be in the near-term and are shifting assets accordingly. I will be doing a little shifting myself over today, but still remaining well and truly exposed to gold.

Not long before we get POG up above 1000 again IMO.

Not to mention, gold equities could well rise today, considering POG is still relatively high.

4% or so more than likely for the XAO.

 

[CamKawa]

Here's a US is going to 0% pep talk from Dr Marc Faber. Head for the video links on the right.
http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2007/s2193110.htm

 

[cuttlefish]

Care to give a time frame?

No crystal ball here - might retreat for a while though until it finds its legs again - depends on how long the delusion from last night can continue and when they bump into the next iceberg.

I do believe the US can go to 0% but don't see it solving any problems and so not necessarily that likely. The real way they are devaluing the USD is by exchanging treasuries for bad debt and we've got no really clear picture of the magnitude of that. Stagflation is probably the thing they will most likely want to avoid - hence the rhetoric in combination with the actions - everythings ok here - we will protect you - spend, grow, borrow, be happy, be euphoric, consume, produce - its all ok - never fear, Bernanke's here. If they can avoid stagflation and instead get inflation going again the next challenge is to prevent runaway inflation - that will mean raising rates. The more money they inject and the more confidence that mistakes will be protected the more wreckless the whole thing can become and the harder to prevent the runaway inflation.

 

[MRC & Co]

Which is what I thought would happen. Glad I didn't buy yesterday
USD is up ... well, let's see if she holds.

Hindsight is a wonderful thing ey Nyden

Trouble is, you are sitting in cash, so you will not get a thing from this bounce.

One question, will you be entering today to try and take advantage of some momentum, or what will it take before you re-enter the market?

Do you have the trading courage for risk, or are you going to be a top jumper?

Honest questions, no insult intended, just interested in trading phsycology.

 

[Kauri]

I hope that doesn't turn out to be Maxwells silver hammer up there..
Cheers
..........Kauri

More hindsight???
"Bang bang Maxwells silver hammer came down.....""

 

[Uncle Festivus]

One has to assume that BB is not a complete idiot. He must have an expertise in his field, an excellent education, & must have a strong understanding of what he is doing. Surely the rest of his lot would be disagreeing with him, left right & center if he was as utterly clueless as many seem to make him out to be.

Well no, he's not a complete idiot, he's a financial academic, sort of the same thing really. Thankfully the world has been given the likes of Greenspan, Bernanke, Bush & Brown to give a gold bugs life meaning and hope for the future

The pog has tip toed through my support zone (980) so I'm buying at these levels, and the Dow was too good to pass up, so gone short there. It's all a matter of being patient now. Thank you Ben and IOU nothings.

 

[explod]

I take it that's a big "Arrrr Crap" now then Ex??

Not at all, it always takes a few days to filter through. On the first day, as planned by the spin, the market says helleluja.

Of course I am not a short term trader so not looking for the instant result. These rate cuts if you check back have always been followed SOME DAYS LATER by big drops in the dollar, THEN FOLLOWING THAT a rise in the gold price.

A great buying opportunity (as posted by others above) for gold bugs today.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Interesting trading last 2 weeks(if you go into such noise that is)

Most of the rising in POG has come on very little volume. Where the falls are on big volume. Whose slipping out the back door??

 

[Temjin]

Keep it simple guys.

- Nothing ever go straight up or down. Corrections / Consolidations are all part of it.
- Don't argue against the market. If 0.75% cut wasn't enough, then so be it.

I have been quite uncomfortable in buying more because of the technicals. Now would be a great time while the US dollar rallys to relieve their extreme oversold situation.

If you are short term trader, then just ignore what I just said.

 

[tigerboi]

Here is the 2 latest twiggs gold charts where you see its continual upsurge & retest of support levels,myself i put it all into gold in the 1st wek of january,looking way ahead to $2,000+ times,with bernanke(meek man that hides behind the bush!) working overtime on the printers its up,up & away...TB

 

[explod]

Here is the 2 latest twiggs gold charts where you see its continual upsurge & retest of support levels,myself i put it all into gold in the 1st wek of january,looking way ahead to $2,000+ times,with bernanke(meek man that hides behind the bush!) working overtime on the printers its up,up & away...TB

We could probably wack in another support at US980 where it consolidated sideways from the 3rd to 13th instant.

I would be surprised if the PPP dont try to make a break below that before the next 24 hours are out. Huge volatility is to be expected now but feel the next breakout will be swift and large from a low base. You can be sure that the PPP are accumulating/playing (short and long) this market for ammuntion to dump in line with thier releases of spin. It is about the only ammunition they have left to stave off a very dire situation from their viewpoint.

I think it has begun to filter through to the sheeple now that a rising gold price is an indication that things are going downhill in the financials.

Many are surprised at the so called stupidity (sic) of the Fed and JWB tream. I have said it before, this is entirely political. The Republicans are desperate to demonstrate all is well for the upcoming Presidential election. Futile in view of the sub-oprime as that may seem.

The next week or two will be interesting viewing.