Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[ithatheekret]

Night mate .

Your gonna miss Ben , he'll be sitting there like a pruned hedge .......... scaring the big kids

 

[CamKawa]

Hungary's economy seen slipping into stagflation

By Polya Lesova, MarketWatch
Last update: 3:29 p.m. EST Feb. 14, NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - New economic data indicate that Hungary may be slipping into stagflation and its predicament may be a warning as to where other central and eastern European economies are heading....
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...x?guid={A8F80605-2ED0-4F1E-835B-DF23F8F3D66C}

More good news for gold.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

One of my indicators is indicating (funny that !) that we might have a bit of a break out tonight/soon. The pointy bit is closing in, ADR at it's lowest for some time. Just feels like a big move is imminent?

PS How about those gold stocks today - SBM got a woody just before the close! Hello $1?
What were the dirs of MON thinking? How to crash your co's shareprice!

 

[Kauri]

One of my indicators is indicating (funny that !) that we might have a bit of a break out tonight/soon. The pointy bit is closing in, ADR at it's lowest for some time. Just feels like a big move is imminent?

PS How about those gold stocks today - SBM got a woody just before the close! Hello $1?
What were the dirs of MON thinking? How to crash your co's shareprice!

I'm with you Uncle.. my vinocators are up... original possie and pyramiddie so far... (love this 5min trading... trends within trends within trends..)
Cheers
............Kauri

 

[ithatheekret]

I'm just bored with gold , already know what it's gonna do and what it could do , the risk reward ratio is just not enticing enough at present . Not saying I think it's too cheap or too expensive , just plain boring . You'd get a crook neck following the nightly tick chart . The way it's trading , I can get the same risk at a lower entry elsewhere . Like a 5 unit spread on CAD , $200 in , wait for the spike , bank the money , can't normally do this same step day in day out , but repetition in the volatile markets is a good game .

Just making hay whilst the sunshines .

That 901 area and above looks like a shelf , not a true support to me , I have support about ( trying to get the closest figure ) 855.50 upto 892ish , if that's right I would expect a push up and a test of the high again . I've got a 941 test pencilled in , but tell that to banks etc. needing cash ..........

 

[Kauri]

interesting rumours storming the rounds... sometimes I feel like the bloke punching holes in his gumboots to let the water out...
Cheers
............Kauri

 

[barrett]

interesting rumours storming the rounds... sometimes I feel like the bloke punching holes in his gumboots to let the water out...
Cheers
............Kauri

What kind of rumours.. anything to do with gold just flying up $5 an ounce?
This market has been so hard to trade.. I haven't placed any trades for 2 weeks now..

 

[Kauri]

Pres George W turns in at 275 come monday.. I wonder if that will have any affect/effect?? on the risk profile of the punters over the weekend.. or if they choose to take the risk on board for 3 days... have to think on this for a whiles..
Chaars
...........Kauri

 

[ithatheekret]

I'll drink to that .

 

[Kauri]

almost run out of time to decide...

 

[Kauri]

almost run out of time to decide...

almost....

 

[Kauri]

What kind of rumours.. anything to do with gold just flying up $5 an ounce?
This market has been so hard to trade.. I haven't placed any trades for 2 weeks now..

WSJ report of two Citi funds in trouble and with record high delinquencies reported by Countrywide this morning

 

[barrett]

these rallies always seem to be fakeouts.. someone's capping..
this is the usual way though.. chop around a few days until everyone's off seasick in bed, or broke... then shoot off $30 randomly in one direction or other for no particularly good reason! Meanwhile the gold stocks (except for SBM) are going nowhere..

And last week, I meant to say, there was some short covering going on... we know because there was a sharp rally in gold but also a reduction in open interest of 1.5% or 17 tonnes of gold. This combination can only happen when shorts are running to cover. It suggests weakness to come rather than strength for now, given that the rally ended..
Wave iii of 3 now, Kauri?

 

[Kauri]

these rallies always seem to be fakeouts.. someone's capping..
this is the usual way though.. chop around a few days until everyone's off seasick in bed, or broke... then shoot off $30 randomly in one direction or other for no particularly good reason! Meanwhile the gold stocks (except for SBM) are going nowhere..

And last week, I meant to say, there was some short covering going on... we know because there was a sharp rally in gold but also a reduction in open interest of 1.5% or 17 tonnes of gold. This combination can only happen when shorts are running to cover. It suggests weakness to come rather than strength for now, given that the rally ended..
Wave iii of 3 now, Kauri?

Seeing as it's George W's birthday monday making a long US weekend, and as my vindicators need to reset, I'm waiting to see how she develops, but it certainly looks like a 3 of 3 may be in the offing... I hope.. Have a good weekend..
Cheers
..........Kauri

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Well we got the break up & we'll take the money but, as itha says, all a bit ho hum. Still the bigger picture seems to be continue the channel consolidation between 890 ish - 920 ish. And we all know what comes after gold consolidates for a while......

 

[Temjin]

Personally, I am waiting for this consolidation to run its course. I wanted to add to my position but it seem this recent consolidation was very similar to the previous one after a rapid incline in price.

Still not there yet though. Who knows which direction will it break. But long term fundamentals are still intact unless the US Federal Reserve decide to push for deflation by pumping up interest rate up to 10ish% just like back in the 1970s. (though Chopper Ben have already said he will never let it happen again and will do everything to fight against it at all cost)

I'm more worried about silver as it seem the consolidation pattern has not fully developed yet and indicators still remain overbrought. I would thought it would take a breath just like gold.

 

[CamKawa]

Here’s a forecast by Scotia Mocatta on the 14/02/2008 that I feel is balanced.

Gold - Technical patterns continue to highlight an environment where
gold has little overall direction. This environment should continue until
we have a break above the February 11th high of 927.31 and a move
below the low of the pattern formed on February 5 & 6th of 885.45.
Until then gold looks poised to remain in the current narrowing pattern
and to lack direction. Technicals highlight that we have entered a nontrending
environment (the ADX - average directional movement index - is
at 19), which weakens the overall effectiveness of traditional technicals.
The medium term outlook continues to be bullish; however for short-term
traders a break of either 885.45 or 927.31 will be needed to foreshadow
the near-term direction.
http://www.kitco.com/reports/sm_feb142008.pdf

I feel gold locally may be a pretty average investment in the near term because if the POG does break to 885.45 the pain of a rising AUD will magnify any losses, and if it does rise to 927.31 I don’t think that we will have much to cheer about as the rising AUD will have eaten most those gains.

The risk local investor’s face is that if the POG doesn’t keep rising then we are going to slide backwards in the face of a rising AUD and I can’t see the AUD falling any time soon. Some are speculating it may reach parity fuelled by RBA and bank rate rises over the course of the year.

I won’t be topping up my current portfolio with any more gold until either the POG once again finds a solid upward direction or the AUD starts to flatten or fall.

It would be interesting to get some technical analysis of GOLD over the last 3 months, particularly the last 4 weeks.
http://markets.theage.com.au/apps/qt/quote.ac?section=charts&sy=age&code=GOLD#topOfChartsAnchor

Just found the 15/02/2008 report.
Gold continues to trade within its recent range. However, today’s session
was somewhat disappointing, with gold struggling despite leaping
platinum prices, a soft USD and weakness in equities. Gold’s recent
consolidation weakens the power of technical indicators, but overall the
market is looking fatigued. We continue to see trend line support at
892.00, followed by support at the recent low of 885.00. The closest
resistance level is the recent high of 927.30.
http://www.scotiamocatta.com/prec/pdfs/pm_daily.pdf

I wish I knew now what I knew before I bought GOLD. It’s ironic that a rock can be so complicated.

 

[GreatPig]

I think "trending" depends on your time frame.

Here's the GOLD stock in A$. It's still in a trend channel, currently just shuffling sideways from the top of the channel to the bottom. While it could potentially be forming a head and shoulders top, as long as it stays in the channel I think it can still be considered "trending".

GP

 

[ithatheekret]

Do you get anything showing between 886 and 892 ?

Ah...haa someone else thinking about that area ...........

 

[CamKawa]

I think "trending" depends on your time frame.

Here's the GOLD stock in A$. It's still in a trend channel, currently just shuffling sideways from the top of the channel to the bottom. While it could potentially be forming a head and shoulders top, as long as it stays in the channel I think it can still be considered "trending".

GP

Charts like that have been posted previously and to be honest I don't think they hold much weight due to the fact that that was the POG going up when the whole market was in bull territory. The world has now changed and what I think the POG is now pondering is will it continue it's bull run now that it's surrounded by bears? Oh and I'm also asking it to outrun the rising AUD to boot.