Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[Kauri]

Buffett has ridden in on his white horse and slain the fire breathing recessionary dragon..( although really he has only carved off a chunk of prime rump and left the stinking carcass for others to deal with)..
Rumours of a European bank in financial pressure/strife..
and data showing India not buying gold ( still getting trotted out)..
so down gold goes...
for now...
Slanty
.............Kauri

 

[wayneL]

How does one start one of these rumours? ::

 

[Kauri]

How does one start one of these rumours? ::

It wasn't me... this is the culprit!!!

 

[explod]

Is that a sponge effect ................. ?

No, more like the PPP's last straw now. Price weakness purported to be due to IMF pending gold sales as prompted by the wonderful G7. And it has certainly had some effect.

What immediately and always follows is the Wall Street chop, shown here and timed to coincide with the anticipated (due to interest rate cuts) dollar weakness of the last few hours. Lunch time NY now will show further weakness but before the close in a few hours look for gold to strengthen. The duped will be selling positions and the smart money will be back in the next day or so.

Have observed this scenario so many times in the last few years that it is nearly boring.

An enthusiastic stallion always needs a good shakeout before the next legup.

 

[Kauri]

How does one start one of these rumours? ::

not one to sow rumours... so here is one that is really really true.. I thunk.. not even a whiff of conspiracy about tit.. unless of course he is anti the fabled PPT..

Treasury"s Paulson has been brutally blunt today warning that the worst in subprime mortgages and resets is just beginning. Data collected on resets shows that the bulk are maturing this quarter but will still a number of large resets due on Q2 as well that is likely to weigh on the economy.

Cheers
............Kauri

 

[Kauri]

here's one rumour backed up... plurry PPT has exended its reach to India... it seems...

Imports reported by the Bombay Bullion Association, dropped from 62 tonnes in Jan '07 to just 5 tonnes in Jan '08.

 

[wayneL]

not one to sow rumours... so here is one that is really really true.. I thunk.. not even a whiff of conspiracy about tit.. unless of course he is anti the fabled PPT..

Treasury"s Paulson has been brutally blunt today warning that the worst in subprime mortgages and resets is just beginning. Data collected on resets shows that the bulk are maturing this quarter but will still a number of large resets due on Q2 as well that is likely to weigh on the economy.

Cheers
............Kauri

Well excuse me while I pick my jaw up off the floor. Has he been drinking and had an acute bout of honesty?

Donnerwetter!

 

[explod]

here's one rumour backed up... plurry PPT has exended its reach to India... it seems...

Imports reported by the Bombay Bullion Association, dropped from 62 tonnes in Jan '07 to just 5 tonnes in Jan '08.

Looks like that may be a good thing for the price of gold. If they stop buying altogether maybe it will go to the big US ton. seems to be a lot of these stories the last week or so. Worth (not a fig)reading John Nadler of Kitco, must be lookin for an honarary on the PPT board.

 

[Kauri]

Well excuse me while I pick my jaw up off the floor. Has he been drinking and had an acute bout of honesty?

Donnerwetter!

PPT-- Paulson---Goldman Sachs ex boss--- guess who won't be invited to the Christmas pixx-up this year...

Oooops
............Kauri

 

[Kauri]

the heineken ashy indicates a bit of a rally is due here... time for a nanny nap..
Cheers
..........Kauri

 

[Uncle Festivus]

The International Monetary Fund should sell $6.6bn worth of gold and invest the proceeds in higher-yielding assets as part of a strategy to put its finances on a sound, long-term footing, an expert panel recommended on Wednesday.

The panel, which included Alan Greenspan, former chairman of the US Federal Reserve, and Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the European Central Bank, estimated that the sale of 400 tonnes of gold would create an endowment fund that would earn the IMF $195m a year in additional revenues after inflation. The IMF holds 3,217m tonnes of gold in total.

Now kiddies, the real story so far.....

As the esteemed group of money shufflers stood and stared at the edge of the abyss, there was much hand wringing and wailing, each pondering out loud what shall we do to stem the contagion. There was a faint voice from a group of seven which exclaimed "why don't we do what we always do - tell the masses that we will sell our gold to pay our debts".

Yes, they all cried, we shall create the impression that all is well & good in the world cause we have all this gold to sell, and shall distribute the proceeds to the worlds needy. The needy in this case being the money shuffling banks, who had taken a good hiding from adding too many noughts to their fractional reserves, only to be told by a small group of house owners in the US that they wern't able to pay back those noughts afterall, good bye, see you later, thank you very much, the party was great while it lasted!

So off the group excitedly went, eager to get to THE VAULT where all their gold had been kept. As the huge metal doors swung open the excitement turned to amazement. Instead of a gleaming mass of useless gold there was but only a handfull of gold bars, and even they had a sticker on them saying "sold - hold for pick-up".

The mood turned to anger as each accused the other of not being truthfull about how much gold they actually had. As it turned out, the money shufflers were not only hopeless at money shuffling, but were also bad at gold shuffling.

The moral of the story? The transfer of wealth is now excellerating, and gold will be prone to larger swings as the global forces involved asert their financial muscle - who shall prevail?

The IMF's 400t is chicken feed in this climate, it will be easily absorbed.

Buy the dips?

 

[Kauri]

Now kiddies, the real story so far.....

As the esteemed group of money shufflers stood and stared at the edge of the abyss, there was much hand wringing and wailing, each pondering out loud what shall we do to stem the contagion. There was a faint voice from a group of seven which exclaimed "why don't we do what we always do - tell the masses that we will sell our gold to pay our debts".

Yes, they all cried, we shall create the impression that all is well & good in the world cause we have all this gold to sell, and shall distribute the proceeds to the worlds needy. The needy in this case being the money shuffling banks, who had taken a good hiding from adding too many noughts to their fractional reserves, only to be told by a small group of house owners in the US that they wern't able to pay back those noughts afterall, good bye, see you later, thank you very much, the party was great while it lasted!

So off the group excitedly went, eager to get to THE VAULT where all their gold had been kept. As the huge metal doors swung open the excitement turned to amazement. Instead of a gleaming mass of useless gold there was but only a handfull of gold bars, and even they had a sticker on them saying "sold - hold for pick-up".

The mood turned to anger as each accused the other of not being truthfull about how much gold they actually had. As it turned out, the money shufflers were not only hopeless at money shuffling, but were also bad at gold shuffling.

The moral of the story? The transfer of wealth is now excellerating, and gold will be prone to larger swings as the global forces involved asert their financial muscle - who shall prevail?

The IMF's 400t is chicken feed in this climate, it will be easily absorbed.

Buy the dips?

the full article... maybe check the volumes of traded gold... buy the dips... sell the rallys... as they happen... for whatever reason..

Financial Times
Jan 31, 2007
by By Krishna Guha in Washington
The International Monetary Fund should sell gold worth $6.6bn (£3.4bn) and invest the proceeds in higher-yielding assets as part of a strategy to put its finances on a sound, long-term footing, an expert panel recommended on Wednesday.

The experts also advised that the IMF should charge for the bilateral
technical assistance it provides to countries, although they said
arrangements should be made to ensure poor countries continued to benefit from IMF help.

The panel included Alan Greenspan, former chairman of the US Federal
Reserve, and Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the European Central Bank. It estimated that the sale of 400 tonnes of gold would create an endowment fund that would earn the IMF $195m a year in additional revenues after inflation.

The IMF holds 3,217 tonnes of gold in total. The panel recommended that the world ´s central banks reduce their planned gold sales - set out in an international accord - by an equivalent amount so as to offset the effect of the IMF sale on the world gold market.

The IMF faces long-term financial problems because its traditional source of revenue - profits on lending - has dried up as countries have paid back giant loans extended during financial crises.

The extra money is needed to help plug an estimated shortfall of $400m a year in the IMF ´s current income and expenses by 2010. The IMF is funding current activities in part by drawing on its reserves - not sustainable in the long run.

The panel recommends that the IMF put some of the quota money
subscribed by IMF shareholder governments to work in capital markets.

This could involve very large sums, with the panel floating the idea of investing $30bn. It estimates that this could earn the IMF about $300m ayear after paying interest on the quota money to the governments providing it.

It suggests loosening the rules governing how the IMF invests its existing $9bn reserves in an attempt to boost its income.

Andrew Crockett, president of JPMorgan Chase International and chairmanof the panel, said it was no longer appropriate for the IMF to rely on profits from crisis lending to fund all its activities and said the proposed new financing model was better suited to what the IMF actually did today.

Some outside experts say the IMF should deal with its financial problems by cutting staff costs more aggressively rather than by raising revenues.

Agreement on IMF gold sales will need to be approved by an 85 per cent
majority of the IMF ´s shareholders and by the US Congress.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Is this hinting that the IMF is in a bit of a pickle also????

So we have the Dow up 200 odd on the Buffett news, where 1 of the 3 companies approached has already declined the offer; and gold down on news of the IMF possible sales? No firm data and yet???? Whipsaw yee haa

 

[Kauri]

Is this hinting that the IMF is in a bit of a pickle also????

So we have the Dow up 200 odd on the Buffett news, where 1 of the 3 companies approached has already declined the offer; and gold down on news of the IMF possible sales? No firm data and yet???? Whipsaw yee haa

a pickle... if they quote Greenspan on their expert panel... I'd say a tsukemonoki is more approriate.. and gold down on possible sales.. semaphored to the public on 31 Jan... what's taken so long???

 

[Kauri]

interesting stage... wonder what the northern cousins will decide...
Cheers
...........Kauri

 

[CamKawa]

Not happy Jan

 

[CamKawa]

interesting stage... wonder what the northern cousins will decide...
Cheers
...........Kauri

I think it'll be a sell off. My only hope is that India starts to buy in now at around $900. Short of that it could fall to as low as, I don't know, $875?

 

[explod]

I think it'll be a sell off. My only hope is that India starts to buy in now at around $900. Short of that it could fall to as low as, I don't know, $875?

Working gold on the short term is very difficult. I have been following gold specifically for 5 years and would not attempt to trade it short term.

A sell off to $875 would not be unreasonable but my view is that it should hold on the current level which is now a support area. A look at the six month chart gives a clearer idea of gold's over all momentum.

 

[So_Cynical]

The low of 896 is inside the consolidation range....higher low than last time
05 Feb 889...Please enough with the panic attacks.

 

[ithatheekret]

How did your POG short go Kauri ? ......... saw 898 on the streamer .