Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[CamKawa]

It seems logical for the POG pick up because according to the media, if you can believe them, gold was sold off from about 915 to 900ish to lock in profits before the start of the long weekend -and here it is now at 916.50.

I also wonder if some short term traders are buying on the run up to the release of the CPI figures on Wednesday.

 

[CamKawa]

Yep, never off it, long term is the best play on gold in my humble view. Notice Bernanke saying that a falling US dollar is good for the current situation. That in itself will push gold up.

I bought gold thinking long but with the rise and rise of the AUD and the POG having fallen by -1.14% over the last 30 days I'm left scratching my head. Doesn't the rise in the AUD fuelled by RBA rate rises concern you?

 

[cuttlefish]

as USD holders (and that constitutes nearly every major central bank and institution in the world. as well as all the internal US money) realise their USD investment is eroding they'll switch at least some of it to gold - that will compound/amplify the gold price rise against USD and other currencies. US money in particular is unlikely to trust another currency as a store of value imo - the only real candidates would be the euro or yen - can't really see US money flocking to either of those (and the euro is pretty flaky as well with the european CB's also dishing money out all over the shop).

The USD is the world reserve currency so as it looks shakier then an alternative value store is needed and there aren't really any other solid currency candidates as an alternative (the yen probably is but from a political perspective some countries may not be inclined to switch from USD to yen). Oils a possible value store but it is really a commodity not a currency, while gold does have good characteristics of a currency and historically proved to be a good value store.

 

[explod]

I bought gold thinking long but with the rise and rise of the AUD and the POG having fallen by -1.14% over the last 30 days I'm left scratching my head. Doesn't the rise in the AUD fuelled by RBA rate rises concern you?

Not at all, our dollar has risen from .60 to currently .92 over the last four years, that's 50%, gold in the same period has gone up 100%. My analysis indicates that this departure will continue exponentially. It is worth reading back over this thread to obtain the whole picture.

The rise of the gold price is at a very early stage and when it really lets go it is going to take investors breath away. The website of "The Privateer" is well worth a look over to get a quick grounding.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

I bought gold thinking long but with the rise and rise of the AUD and the POG having fallen by -1.14% over the last 30 days I'm left scratching my head. Doesn't the rise in the AUD fuelled by RBA rate rises concern you?

What's the old saying - if it doesn't kill you it will make you stronger, or something like that? That's a bit like the interest rate sensitive $AU at the moment. I would envisage a bullish stance until something in the Aus economy breaks due to rising interest rates, and the interest rate mantra changes to an easing bias. Until that time we can only rely on an increasing US pog to counter the exchange rate. (Poor ol' NEM cant take a trick either way these days )

I'm not sure it's all that strong anyway - if it can't get to parity with the current interest rate spread then it never will??? The Looney can but we can't. Still, it seems the traders look to interest rates for their $AU direction I guess.

When the interest rate bias in Aus reverts to easing that will be the time to load up on physical in AU dollars I think, but for now I'm sticking to gold equities and spot gold cfd

Any traders out there recommend a spot gold broker who does better than 50c spread, eg like IG, and has a decent platform, and security of client funds?????

Itha, you seem to be in and out on a dime, who do you trade with?

 

[CamKawa]

Not at all, our dollar has risen from .60 to currently .92 over the last four years, that's 50%, gold in the same period has gone up 100%. My analysis indicates that this departure will continue exponentially. It is worth reading back over this thread to obtain the whole picture.

The rise of the gold price is at a very early stage and when it really lets go it is going to take investors breath away. The website of "The Privateer" is well worth a look over to get a quick grounding.

Thank you.

 

[Whiskers]

News earlier of Musharraf's loss in the Pakistan election may be the main cause of the little kick up in POG.

Interesting to see how that pans out particularly in terms of the US alliance.

Counting was continuing with results still awaited in less than 20 seats, but no party was expected to win a majority in the 342-seat National Assembly.

The opposition parties of assassinated former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto and former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif appeared to have won enough to command a majority, according to unofficial results. But there is no certainty that they will work together.

The pro-Musharraf Pakistan Muslim League was trailing a distant third, and the party's spokesman conceded defeat but kept open the possibility of joining a coalition.
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSISL25056920080219

 

[barrett]

I bought gold thinking long but with the rise and rise of the AUD and the POG having fallen by -1.14% over the last 30 days I'm left scratching my head. Doesn't the rise in the AUD fuelled by RBA rate rises concern you?

I agree with explod & UF, for your long term holdings of bullion and gold stocks, stay with the long term bullish trend and ignore the volatility. $A may rally but so may gold, even more violently. It usually doesn't pay to trade in and out of long term gold holdings.

The reason is that no-one can consistently time the gold price.. I have tried dozens of newsletters and timing services over the past four years. Those newsletters that try and time the market have done nothing but put a substantial dent in my profits from this gold bull. Those that do quality fundamental analysis on gold stocks were the ones that made the money.
[that's not to say you can't make money out of EW moves etc. and some spectacular calls eg Kauri's work, if you have special indicators, trading account & lots of time]

Just to clarify where my posts are coming from fwiw, I have a core holding of about 65% of my portfolio and rising in bullion and gold stocks (the rest mainly oil stocks). I don't try and trade them at all, just accumulate.

My charts etc. on here only relate to a small amount I put aside to trade futures at 20X leverage to see if I can't pick a few moves or preferably get in at the bottom of a really big move. I'm almost certain my time would be more profitably spent analysing gold stocks in detail than attempting to time the gold price.. but I enjoy following the price, and the potential for a huge win at 20X leverage is there.

Bottom line IMO is don't mess too much with core holdings, you don't want to be left out of the bull. Also ideally want a little spare cash in case bargains emerge. Agreed the Privateer is good and I like the Financial Sense Newshour weekly podcast they are a great weekly companion for gold investors. cheers

 

[ithatheekret]

I used to get newsletters , gave upon them . Found the money was better put to me

Can't beat a tick chart and a bit of goss.

 

[barrett]

Doubled up my position on this further breakout abov ethe major wedge, very very bullish right now IMO

 

[barrett]

I used to get newsletters , gave upon them . Found the money was better put to me

Can't beat a tick chart and a bit of goss.

Absolutely! short newsletters, long bushmills.. hold on I think that was Kauri's trade

 

[ithatheekret]

Past the squweeeeeeze zone . Hope you heathens are happified

 

[Kauri]

I used to get newsletters , gave upon them . Found the money was better put to me

Can't beat a tick chart and a bit of goss.

Some of the goss that was passed on to me via ithatheekret this arvo..

no credibility suisse pulling up a couple of bills short.. and a one liner about future "revaluations".. (how can you revalue something that has no value??
the uber swiss bank under pressure from ethos to have an independant audit to show what the gnomes really know..
a couple of pommie banks under pressure., (probably no truth in it but good to trade on)
Ambac struggling to get 2 bills from s/holders... but possibly going to be broken up into two banks.. the muni's and the kaka... hedge funds and banks not happy at that as their bets on loan failures will lose a lot...

all this this arvo... and down go JPY swaps and up goes gold in the now familiar rush for the doors by the risk takers.. maybe..
Cheers
........Kauri

 

[Kauri]

Past the squweeeeeeze zone . Hope you heathens are happified

I've been on cloud 5... everytime (since crossing over) she comes back to the foggy senkou she takes off...
Cheers
............Kauri

 

[cuttlefish]

Quite a strong move. It would be nice to see gold get past the historic highs into blue sky. The size of the platinum run must bode well for it surely.

 

[ithatheekret]

I've been on cloud 5... everytime (since crossing over) she comes back to the foggy senkou she takes off...
Cheers
............Kauri

Amazing what a little observation can be pull out in those clouds hey mate , even the vanilla heik speaks on its own . I've been up down and round and round on the data you gave me , set my indis and off she went , to be smashing boundaries on Skip with it too .

Speaking of JPY longs if you hadn't mentioned those options in the backroom cupboards , I got some low 107's , but they are needed for something else to be boxed .

A Japanese friend sent me an email card , knows I can't read Japanese , need the eldest daughter to translate it , probably giving me chit .

Here's a line that was in green and gold , any takers ? He's a bug .

女の子のもつれのためのより多くの金を買い、安いがあることを停止しなさい。

 

[Whiskers]

Hows this look, ithatheekret. (From Dictionary.com/Translator)

You buy many gold for tangling the girl, are cheap but stop a certain thing.

PS: From http://tets9.freetranslation.com/

Stop that is although, buys many gold more and girl of entanglement be cheap.

 

[ithatheekret]

Must be close he's called me tangles ever since we first started fishing together , by the syntax he sounds half cut too . That wouldn't surprise me , can out drink me without taking a breath .

PS... The rest has got me , unless he's calling me a tightrse again .

 

[barrett]

well that rice wine's a wicked drop isn't it. Nice work Whiskers.. just when I was thinking he said the xau would break out on 20th February..

 

[chops_a_must]

Pretty phenomenal moves for everything inflationary tonight...

Even as the indices come off the boil, oil gold, grain et al still going strong.

You aren't welcome at this party financials! Bugger off, nobody likes you!

How's the USD looking?