Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[barrett]

Come weds, it may be in a recovery WB??.. but a touch too early to call.. for me...yeti...
Cheers
..........Kauri

Hi Kauri, I meant to ask what 'app 2.618' refers to on your last chart.. some pretty strong resistance coming in at 887.9 as you indicated..
Ta
Barrett

 

[Kauri]

Hi Kauri, I meant to ask what 'app 2.618' refers to on your last chart.. some pretty strong resistance coming in at 887.9 as you indicated..
Ta
Barrett

only a rough guide but W3 should be 1.618 of W1 and W5 often comes in at 2.618
Cheers
...........Kauri

 

[Kauri]

only a rough guide but W3 should be 1.618 of W1 and W5 often comes in at 2.618
Cheers
...........Kauri

oooops... wrong chart.. below.. or above??

 

[barrett]

Kauri, thanks for the explanation, v helpful...
With last week's reversal in the ETF and this selloff the past 2 days or so, I'm curious to zoom out a bit on the chart.. attempt below on the daily, 26 Jun 07 - 4 Feb 08.. somehow I don't think fitting an ABC on this bad boy would be winning me any friends! For now is it better just gaming the corrective phase of the top wave alone and seeing how that develops? A beginner here at the EW, all hints appreciated..
Thanks Kauri

 

[Whiskers]

Ok, Platinum has taken out $1,800... where's gold!?

 

[Kauri]

love drawing long bows... is she moving into a corrective WB... i wont be interested though until I see her moving impulsively into a WC..
Cheers
..........Kauri

a bit of diversion to play uot on bottom vinocator..(yep, Iv'e managed to cut half of it off in my screenshot)

 

[refined silver]

Ok, Platinum has taken out $1,800... where's gold!?

Whiskers, you beat me to it! Platinum has less enemies than gold, but gold will follow as soon as the shorts covering rally in the USD finishes.

 

[barrett]

1st impulse of C on the 5 min? (6 hours, start 911, end 896)
smoked a bit of resistance on the way down
b should be further right.. I think..

 

[bean]

It would appear that over the next few trading days the Gold stocks are going to crash with the general market.
The POG??? may well fall
The divergence between the stocks (especially the juniors) and the price of the metals makes me think POG may fall as well.

 

[Whiskers]

It would appear that over the next few trading days the Gold stocks are going to crash with the general market.
The POG??? may well fall
The divergence between the stocks (especially the juniors) and the price of the metals makes me think POG may fall as well.

There's that CRASH word again!

I'm leaning the other way, bean. With the BoE now cutting rates with the US to stave off recession and Europe resisting but probably following suite sooner or later, I see the market holding about it's current levels before pushing on later.

I did think POG had potential to retrace more than it did a month or two ago, but I'm more optermistic that a world wide recession is being avoided and demand will remain strong for gold given now that Silver, Platinium, Palladium and even Rhodium have followed gold to these levels . I'm also not sure that the supply side is positioned to meet demand for gold in that scenario.

 

[CamKawa]

It would appear that over the next few trading days the Gold stocks are going to crash with the general market.

Sounds to me like you are making trouble.

The POG??? may well fall
The divergence between the stocks (especially the juniors) and the price of the metals makes me think POG may fall as well.

If the market crashes the POG may well fall in sympathy as we have seen previously but by significantly less. Gold may be sold off in a flight-to-cash as investors struggle to meet margin calls. If you want to be 100% safe then go 100% cash and take hit on a low return. I still reckon gold is the best investment in the market at the moment.

 

[CamKawa]

:With the BoE now cutting rates...

Three cheers for the Bank of England!

 

[rederob]

It would appear that over the next few trading days the Gold stocks are going to crash with the general market.
The POG??? may well fall
The divergence between the stocks (especially the juniors) and the price of the metals makes me think POG may fall as well.

What a punt!
50% chance of getting it right?

Actually I have observed that gold equity prices are very subdued, having factored in the probability of POG (at best) consolidating or declining - but definitely not rising: Note that POG is close to all time highs while equities are up to 35% from their previous highs.
Global currency devaluations and declining interest rates in western nations will favour a lot more upside to POG.
Personally I don't see too many more "crash" scenarios, but I certainly see the subprime contagion spreading more virulently over the medium term - to me suggesting stock markets have a long way to fall before things get better.
I don't think gold equities will stay in lockstep with general equities.

 

[Ashsaege]

It would appear that over the next few trading days the Gold stocks are going to crash with the general market.
The POG??? may well fall
The divergence between the stocks (especially the juniors) and the price of the metals makes me think POG may fall as well.

So the market will crash over the next few trading days?? Could you please explain why this is going to happen?
Im kinda hoping it will crash... time to pick up some bargains

 

[Sean K]

So the market will crash over the next few trading days?? Could you please explain why this is going to happen?
Im kinda hoping it will crash... time to pick up some bargains

Disregard bean's tips. He called $540 gold about 3 months ago too.

 

[Whiskers]

Disregard bean's tips. He called $540 gold about 3 months ago too.

Better not rub it in too hard kennas... just in case!

 

[Sean K]

Better not rub it in too hard kennas... just in case!

LOL Yep, it's still on the cards, one day....

 

[Kimosabi]

Disregard bean's tips. He called $540 gold about 3 months ago too.

If they put Interest rates up to 20%, started deflating the money supply, therefore making paper money more valuable, this could happen.

But in the current environment the chances of gold going to $540 is about as likely as someone finding a pure gold asteroid, dragging it into the earths orbit, and shooting golden nuggets into my backyard...

 

[explod]

LOL Yep, it's still on the cards, one day....

A drop to $730 US could occur and the uptrend would still be intact.

Chart coutesy The Privateer Newsletter

 

[Miner]

If they put Interest rates up to 20%, started deflating the money supply, therefore making paper money more valuable, this could happen.

But in the current environment the chances of gold going to $540 is about as likely as someone finding a pure gold asteroid, dragging it into the earths orbit, and shooting golden nuggets onto the planet...

If Gold happens to reach $540 in next one year then I would go back as a bonded labour, sell my European car, house, liquidate all investment and the cash will buy gold bullions . It is like man is mortal. Every one will die so prediction is right- only who knows when the date will be.