Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[explod]

Kauri, just trying to nut out your box advance/regress. If we have a break above say 890 then would 886 become the new "C", if that's the case then I have it, if not can you put me onto a read to pick it up.

cheers explod

Struth, just found your new thread on current subject. The intellectual ESP is working a treat but as usual; allways 2 and half steps behind.

 

[Kauri]

one of those little fluttery things... but it is meant (usually) to break to the topsides...
Cheers
........Kauri

 

[barrett]

I haven't seen this pattern come up very often (white wedge below on hourly chart).. triangular now but still considered a bullish flag, isn't it?

There is the possibility here... imo supported by the fundamentals (rate cut, bond insurer bailout meeting).... of a big inverse head and shoulders tracing out over the past 6 trading days - neckline and shoulderline in pink..

If that pattern is confirmed it would be very bullish, target 930+ within the next week.

To play that move I guess a pullback to 882 area would be an ideal entry point.. if not, an hourly close above white resistance at 892 would be bullish.. if 900 is broken within the next day or so that would seem to confirm the H&S.. Nothing is certain, but this bullish pattern would seem consistent with the Fed spraying the walls with money as they are..

 

[AnDy62]

I'm pretty new to trading. I have had Newmont for years for very little gain, and bought Lihir last year. But with both, I've missed out on the gains in the POG . Do people think buying the bullion would be a better bet if one is bullish on gold?

 

[CamKawa]

If that pattern is confirmed it would be very bullish, target 930+ within the next week.

If you could arrange that for me that would be nice.

What doesn't make sense to me is that the price of gold is up 4 dollars today yet the price of GOLD and NCM is going down. What do you think?

 

[Kauri]

not a good looking coily thing... but may beer watching..
Cheers
..........Kauri

 

[barrett]

Thanks Kauri, didn't realise that one was venomous.. hopefully not fatally.. unless the hourly closes below 869 and that would throw my last chart out the window. This one hard to trade either way, I'm out right now and watching

I'm pretty new to trading. I have had Newmont for years for very little gain, and bought Lihir last year. But with both, I've missed out on the gains in the POG . Do people think buying the bullion would be a better bet if one is bullish on gold?

The stocks have been a bit disappointing.. have heard reports of some gold investors switching from stocks fully into bullion. I think it would be a mistake especially with the XAU gold stock index at 0.19X the gold price.. through bull and bear the past 30 years or so this level has been an excellent time to start topping up on gold stocks. The stocks on average over time leverage gold 3:1.. so they have a lot of catching up to do even if gold were to pull back a bit. Lihir had earnings of around 50M last year.. next year by my back of the envelope calculation cash flow should be well into the hundreds of millions.. with so many disappointments from gold stocks in recent years I guess the market just won't believe it until it's announced. Same goes for Newmont, whose cash costs aren't as well controlled as Lihir but with no hedging even they probably won't be able to escape a big jump in profits..

If you could arrange that for me that would be nice.

What doesn't make sense to me is that the price of gold is up 4 dollars today yet the price of GOLD and NCM is going down. What do you think?

..hang on i'll just phone the broker and place a market order for 100,000 April gold, that should do it:
GOLD, NCM probably flat/down cos $A gold price is flat/down past 24 hrs.. bullionvault.com chart gives live streaming gold price in multi currencies

 

[CamKawa]

I'm pretty new to trading. I have had Newmont for years for very little gain, and bought Lihir last year. But with both, I've missed out on the gains in the POG . Do people think buying the bullion would be a better bet if one is bullish on gold?

From my limited trading experience I reckon the price of the ASX code GOLD seems to move more slowly than the price of any of the gold miners both up and down. It may be a case that if there's a big fluctuation in the price of gold (POG) then GOLD will move maybe .5.- 2.5% whereas the miners, like NCM, LGL, AVO etc, will move much more in the given direction. So which method of investing gold you choose depends on what sort of investor you are.

 

[CamKawa]

GOLD, NCM probably flat/down cos $A gold price is flat/down past 24 hrs.. bullionvault.com chart gives live streaming gold price in multi currencies

I can get similar info from kitco.com and you are right, with the exchange rate taken into consideration gold is in the red. Thanks for your help.

 

[refined silver]

If you could arrange that for me that would be nice.

What doesn't make sense to me is that the price of gold is up 4 dollars today yet the price of GOLD and NCM is going down. What do you think?

NCM still have hedging issues like many others, but its purposely hidden. Usually disguised as increasing costs at the mine, as Newcrest just announced at Telfer. Even though they raised $2b to close out the hedges, they said it's "underway" with more news in their half year results.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23100754-643,00.html

That means the last 2 months $200 rise in gold has cost them BIG dollars.

 

[numbercruncher]

Gotta love gold as a store of value ....

As an example, he says, "If in January of 2007 you had $637.50 to buy an ounce of gold, you could have bought 1 ounce of gold, or 267 gallons of gas. With that same $637.50 today, you could only buy about three-quarters of an ounce of gold, or 205 gallons of gas."

So why doesn't the price of gold matter? He explains, "If you were using gold as your standard, you'll discover that you can buy about the same amount of gas (actually, a little more) with the same ounce of gold you had on January 1", thus effortlessly demonstrating gold's "store of value" as it preserves buying power!

http://www.dailyreckoning.com/Writers/Mogambo/DREssays/MG012108.html

 

[cuttlefish]

lol Looking forward to the day when traded goods (including USD) have a default pricing in Oz.

The greenback dropped against gold today, now trading at 1.12 milli Oz. The AUD is up to .975 milli Oz today.


BHP is up .76 milli Oz today on strong copper price which rose to 3.86 milli Oz in london trade overnight.


A schooner thanks ... that'll be 4.50 milli Oz cheers mate. Oh I've only got dollars do you take those?

 

[Uncle Festivus]

not a good looking coily thing... but may beer watching..
Cheers
..........Kauri

Is not your coily thing a good thing, in that it represents a bullish continuation pattern, ascending triangle?

 

[Kauri]

Is not your coily thing a good thing, in that it represents a bullish continuation pattern, ascending triangle?

yep... it's just a visual thing wid me, it just doesn't look right.... however that may just be because of the way I am seeing my vinocators... note that I am wrong more often than I an right...
Cheers
.........Kauri

 

[explod]

Is not your coily thing a good thing, in that it represents a bullish continuation pattern, ascending triangle?

It must be, because the strength of silver tonight indicates an uptick for gold may be in the offing. Just waiting for the US$ index, which is teetering, to show a drop and confirm.

We will see what plays out. I make no actual predictions cause of unqualification.

 

[explod]

And we are off and racing

 

[Whiskers]

There goes 900 again.

Should be a bonza day here tomorrow!

EDIT: You piped me at the post explod.

 

[Kauri]

It must be, because the strength of silver tonight indicates an uptick for gold may be in the offing. Just waiting for the US$ index, which is teetering, to show a drop and confirm.

We will see what plays out. I make no actual predictions cause of unqualification.

and I make predictions because of unqualification. . and also to learn.. enjoy the coily..
Cheers
...........Kauri

 

[rederob]

and I make predictions because of unqualification. . and also to learn.. enjoy the coily..
Cheers
...........Kauri

I am qualified to make predictions that are unqualified.
I had a chart that said gold would rise, and it did.
Another said it would fall, and it did.
Based on this 100% success rate, gold will now rise.
Just checked the ticker, and indeed it did.
I therefore now predict a fall.
Wait.....
Wait......
There, it fell.

Trust me, gold will again rise.
Although I suspect $1000 next year will be achieved in a canter, the actions of the Fed to prop up the US economy will debase the greenback to oblivion faster than I thought. I therefore am setting a $1150 target fo the second half of 2008, with a subsequent retrace to low $900s into 2009.

....onya bike, ducati?

 

[Kauri]

I am qualified to make predictions that are unqualified.
I had a chart that said gold would rise, and it did.
Another said it would fall, and it did.
Based on this 100% success rate, gold will now rise.
Just checked the ticker, and indeed it did.
I therefore now predict a fall.
Wait.....
Wait......
There, it fell.

Trust me, gold will again rise.
Although I suspect $1000 next year will be achieved in a canter, the actions of the Fed to prop up the US economy will debase the greenback to oblivion faster than I thought. I therefore am setting a $1150 target fo the second half of 2008, with a subsequent retrace to low $900s into 2009.

....onya bike, ducati?

and tonight... when the U.S figures come out a tad better than forecast??
I thunk..
poltroon
Cheering ....
..................Karlu