Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[Sean K]

Looks like support has been tested and held at 855 for the moment. Will it range or break? US dollar dead cat bounce has run it's course (again!)?

The Uncle Ben's helicopter will be re-fueled mid air as there is much money to be distributed to the needy hedge funds, banks & brokers - 50 bps minimum is a certainty. Although, gold appears to be less & less inclined to be influenced by interest rates or the dollar - getting more "unhinged" so maybe start to trade on fear by itself.

That H&S mixed up in there with the support at 870 gives me a target of 830.

 

[barrett]

In the past hour or so the US S&P went limit down, 70 points or 5.3%.. trading has been halted until just before the opening bell on NYSE. When the NYSE opens, the limit on the S&P futures will double, and if the Industrials fall 10% I believe the market closes for an hour.

There's also talk of simultaneous rate cuts from multiple central banks... so it'll be an interesting night!

According to Bloomberg CBOT futures are now pricing in a 75% chance of a 75bp rate cut and a 25% chance of a 50bp rate cut. I doubt Bernanke would want to disappoint the market now.. I would be absolutely amazed if he doesn't act today. Aside from inviting a US crash the Eur Stoxx50 is at a critical technical support level..

I'm not sure I have the guts to buy gold futures in this market. My trade would be at the whim of a few central bankers, their timing, etc.. they may even co-ordinate gold sales to go along with the rate cuts.. who knows! I should have entered at 850 as planned but I'm still watching from the sidelines after getting out at 880.
GLTA
barrett

 

[josjes]

In the past hour or so the US S&P went limit down, 70 points or 5.3%.. trading has been halted until just before the opening bell on NYSE. When the NYSE opens, the limit on the S&P futures will double, and if the Industrials fall 10% I believe the market closes for an hour.

There's also talk of simultaneous rate cuts from multiple central banks... so it'll be an interesting night!

According to Bloomberg CBOT futures are now pricing in a 75% chance of a 75bp rate cut and a 25% chance of a 50bp rate cut. I doubt Bernanke would want to disappoint the market now.. I would be absolutely amazed if he doesn't act today. Aside from inviting a US crash the Eur Stoxx50 is at a critical technical support level..

I'm not sure I have the guts to buy gold futures in this market. My trade would be at the whim of a few central bankers, their timing, etc.. they may even co-ordinate gold sales to go along with the rate cuts.. who knows! I should have entered at 850 as planned but I'm still watching from the sidelines after getting out at 880.
GLTA
barrett

Gold touched 849 briefly this arvo, but quickly rebound to 860. (Probabaly on those rumours you mentioned ? ) I think, it will be hard for gold to get back to 830 this week, unless as you said Ben doesn't act as market demands, and let Dow slide to oblivion to 11000 and beyond. I am quite optimistic of gold getting back to 900 and above sometime next week if not sooner.

 

[wavepicker]

Looks like support has been tested and held at 855 for the moment. Will it range or break? US dollar dead cat bounce has run it's course (again!)?

Might end up being more than a dead cat bounce this time

 

[cuttlefish]

thanks Benny banker, hope this keeps up throughout the US day.

 

[explod]

Might end up being more than a dead cat bounce this time

Yeh.. is this the turnaround?

 

[Kauri]

scruffy looking abc,... but I'll take it until something better comes along...
Cheers
...........Kauri

 

[barrett]

Sheesh, nice work on that 850 target Kauri! From a few days out too..

big inverse head and shoulders.. on the 5-min chart (below).. would suggest bottom is in.. at least for right now, that could change if it falls below the neckline at 867. If it holds above 867.. that looks likely just now..an initial target of 884 is likely.

Hard to conclusively call a turnaround esp with the H&S not very clear on the hourly, but clearly this rate cut is fundamentally bang on the money for gold..

 

[Kauri]

Sheesh, nice work on that 850 target Kauri! From a few days out too..

big inverse head and shoulders.. on the 5-min chart (below).. would suggest bottom is in.. at least for right now, that could change if it falls below the neckline at 867. If it holds above 867.. that looks likely just now..an initial target of 884 is likely.

Hard to conclusively call a turnaround esp with the H&S not very clear on the hourly, but clearly this rate cut is fundamentally bang on the money for gold..

Beware of any possible US margin calls if the SP drops... in tomorrows papers one Aus mob reporting 800 compared to 20-30 on a normal day. Selling gold/oil to pay them possibly... or not...
Cheers
.........Kauri

 

[explod]

Well that's what the bugs think of the rate cut. No big drop on the $US yet but look out below soon I suspect.

 

[Sean K]

Well that's what the bugs think of the rate cut.

Nice woody.

I failed to top up on my gold stocks yesterday as I said I would, out of fear. Be interesting to see how gold stocks perform. Follow market, or follow gold...

 

[explod]

Nice woody.

I failed to top up on my gold stocks yesterday as I said I would, out of fear. Be interesting to see how gold stocks perform. Follow market, or follow gold...

I've been burnt to the tune of 10% as of last night on my gold stocks. Managed to buy more OXR yesterday so that will help. But my Bullion is up more than 10% since October and it is 30% larger than my trading portfolio which has been a good buffer.

Realising the value of spread overall. Aussie gold price $1020 this am so that also should give a good lift.

Feel sure you will find plenty of opportunities in gold stocks. Some very good ones very oversold and I feel after the rout of the last few days there will be some tentative heads for a few days.

Cheers explod

 

[CamKawa]

At +33.05 the POG looks good to me.

Now will the POG get support here or will the other peasant stocks bring it down?

 

[barrett]

Gold sure put in a great performance.. massive reversal day, retraced >62% of last week's drop, gold indices confirming strongly, silver confirming.. I guess this makes more of an argument for this rally being 1 (of 5).. rather than b?

 

[Nicks]

Nice woody.

I failed to top up on my gold stocks yesterday as I said I would, out of fear. Be interesting to see how gold stocks perform. Follow market, or follow gold...

Follow gold, not market.

The Fed will no doubt cut rates again next week, which will be another boost toward upside for gold if this occurs. Volatility is also very good for gold. The only reason it dropped a bit at all was b/c people were selling it to get themselves out of trouble they were in with from the market.

A good solid gold stock with strong gain potential and real fundamentals based on POG and reserves is AVO imo. Thanks to yesterday this is at a great buying price point imo. Just look at its reserves and the POG, at this share price this looks incredibly good value - eventually fundamentals will kick in and this will realise its full value.

 

[josjes]

I've been burnt to the tune of 10% as of last night on my gold stocks. Managed to buy more OXR yesterday so that will help. But my Bullion is up more than 10% since October and it is 30% larger than my trading portfolio which has been a good buffer.

Realising the value of spread overall. Aussie gold price $1020 this am so that also should give a good lift.

Feel sure you will find plenty of opportunities in gold stocks. Some very good ones very oversold and I feel after the rout of the last few days there will be some tentative heads for a few days.

Cheers explod

Yeah me too, fail to top-up yesterday. Do you see SBM go down to 62c yesterday to be up to 75 this morning ?
I bought them a day too early at 75. Oh well... lesson learned.

 

[explod]

Yeah me too, fail to top-up yesterday. Do you see SBM go down to 62c yesterday to be up to 75 this morning ?
I bought them a day too early at 75. Oh well... lesson learned.

An error with my bullion uptick, is 20% since October which is good. Today is great but maybe a very small beginning...

this bloke explains why he believes gold should go to $10,000 an ounce.

<www.kitco.com/ind/Dillon/jan172008.html>

 

[Nicks]

Thanks explod that made for very good reading. If you take a very conservative view in what he is saying, its still very good news for the price of gold.

If half of what is in that document occurs then gold will still soar to enormous heights (are we seeing the beginning of some of this already??).

I think having a gold stock in your portfolio makes very good sense at the moment. It is a good stabiliser and hedge. Makes for a balanced and diverse portfolio financially.

 

[Kauri]

my long strides are off... as a precaution... against a long squeeze.. on the back of margin calls possibly materialising... plenty of time to rejoin the fray when/if I am wrong (had masses of practise at that. )
Cheers
..........Kauri

 

[explod]

my long strides are off... as a precaution... against a long squeeze.. on the back of margin calls possibly materialising... plenty of time to rejoin the fray when/if I am wrong (had masses of practise at that. )
Cheers
..........Kauri

Kauri, just trying to nut out your box advance/regress. If we have a break above say 890 then would 886 become the new "C", if that's the case then I have it, if not can you put me onto a read to pick it up.

cheers explod