Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[Uncle Festivus]

Absolutely, that is cause for celebration!

Uncle Festivus, with this short are you anticipating an interim top here, or just an intra-day trade..?

Anyone else finding it never makes an important move until you've sat down for dinner? lol

It would be funny but....
How did the short go.... it was only ever going to be very short term, (although expecting a retracement of sorts tonight) based on momentum....
took another short @ 890, set stop, go to dinner, & I kid you not,
come back, stopped out, price drops $10 immediately after getting stopped out!! .

Trading, 90% luck or something!! doh! I'll stick to investing, better results

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I'm not sure I have the same enthusiasm for silver this time round, as I can't see the same fundamentals to drive it such as gold has. It will most likely play poor cousin, following gold rather than leading....

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Interesting info about the Fed and President JFK. Apparently he enacted a law that made Fed issued notes illegal, and has never been repealed, so all Fed issued money is illegal?. JFK American notes were to be backed by silver and gold. Get in the way of the Fed families and get assassinated? Just another conspiracy?

 

[barrett]

It would be funny but....
How did the short go.... it was only ever going to be very short term ie today based on momentum....
took another short @ 890, set stop, go to dinner, & I kid you not,
come back, stopped out, price drops $10 immediately after getting stopped out!! .

Trading, 90% luck or something!! doh! I'll stick to investing, better results

Ouch.. yeah same happened to me yesterday.. bought four contracts yesterday in early 870s and all stopped out before the run up.. talk about paying full price for market tuition Only left with the two I bought at 826 to pay the bills.. better than nothing but still, have missed out on a lot setting stops too high in this run

 

[explod]

Hi explod. I'll respond to your question .I suppose this belongs on the silver thread ,but,what the heck... Perhaps the question is a bit chicken and egg/cause and effect.Which does the leading Gold or Silver?

This article is relevant , I think.I had to edit a bit to fit the maximum character rule


Jason Hommel

First I thanks Boyou, for your effort and the post. Jason Hommel's website and free newsletter I recieved weekily for a couple or years till about 12 months ago. I think he is a bit on the far fetched side and some of his predictions are stretched too. Having said that I still believe silver one of the best leverages to the prescious metals bull. I think the trend itself is the best guide as she goes.

The trend is up, should continue and while she does we will see what pans out. Why have I called it in the feminine??

 

[Miner]

Mellow

Perth Mint Gold product , a call warrant, listed on the asx code ZAUWBA would probably suit what you describe.

heres a read on it http://http://www.asx.com.au/investor/warrants/how/gold_pmg.htm

You are right. Some one else advised me too about this in this forum.
However in actuality this is traded very thinly. There is another trade in ASX in the name of GOLD. The difference is ZAUWBA is to be paid for 0.01 ounce of gold where as GOLD is to be paid @0.1 ounce of gold as an upfront payment.

Regards

 

[barrett]

This is not much use after the event, didn't want to spoil the party before (I wasn't trading on it anyway, just practicing EW methods as a beginner).

Wavepicker or Nick, is this anything similar to your count at the moment?

The count written on the chart as it is here would be very bearish, but I am considering an alternative, very bullish potential count here.. that 5 at the top of the chart is not in fact 5, but I of 5 that would unfold into the mid 900's.

Given all the momentum here, and the gold bullishness indices (marketvane, hulbert) had not yet reached boiling hot levels to my knowledge.. and the recent gold breakout in multiple currencies.. and silver now confirming gold.. and the recent buy signal in the XAU:gold ratio, and the HUI holding firm at least in the first 10 minutes of trade tonight, etc... could this be a big interim buying opportunity in bullion for an extended wave 5?

Thanks in advance,
Barrett

 

[barrett]

I can't get over how the HUI and XAU are actually rallying slightly in the face of a $25 drop in gold.. don't think I've seen anything similar since 13-15 December 2005, when the HUI barely flinched during a sudden >$50 correction in gold.. HUI then immediately began a sharp rally from 260 to 400 in the four months after.

I guess anything could happen on close here, but so far this seems pretty interesting to me..

 

[explod]

I can't get over how the HUI and XAU are actually rallying slightly in the face of a $25 drop in gold.. don't think I've seen anything similar since 13-15 December 2005, when the HUI barely flinched during a sudden >$50 correction in gold.. HUI then immediately began a sharp rally from 260 to 400 in the four months after.

I guess anything could happen on close here, but so far this seems pretty interesting to me..

A one hundred or so gold rise which holds can have an enormous effect on a gold producers bottom line. I will talk hyperthetical:

Say it cost a gold mine $600 to produce an ounce of gold and the sell price is $700, the price goes to $800 and holds, we have a 100% increase in profit.

The real gold rush will get going during the next producers reporting seasons but it is being factored in now to a large degree

 

[Sean K]

I can't get over how the HUI and XAU are actually rallying slightly in the face of a $25 drop in gold.. .

My charts must be on the blink, because I only see a $10 ish drop.

Whatever the case, if it's off considerably, it is very interesting that the indexes are moving up against the tide. Punters think there's more to go obviously, unless there was a bunch of M&A rumour/action driving things...

Crystal ball, potential double top looming, but pretty unlikely given that support.

 

[explod]

My charts must be on the blink, because I only see a $10 ish drop.

Punters think there's more to go obviously, unless there was a bunch of M&A rumour/action driving things...

Crystal ball, potential double top looming, but pretty unlikely given that support.

Dont' know about the punters but still maintain investors are seeing the new alternative to the weakening market, and part of that is for the reasons I outlined above. Just fundamental common sense.

 

[treefrog]

Dont' know about the punters but still maintain investors are seeing the new alternative to the weakening market, and part of that is for the reasons I outlined above. Just fundamental common sense.

weakening or Deja Vu

 

[ithatheekret]

Good question - There are some really good historical indicators for determining how high the gold price will go. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx And dont tell me it won't go that high without hard evidence or arguments because I've heard all the 'empty' cynicism since I started buying gold stocks in 2000.

Actually Andrew it was a statement . One I'm sure many know .

Positive Mental Attitude .

A state of mind , one we must mould to suit our objective . It doesn't matter which way the markets moves , P.M.A. cuts off emotional factors to zero , the rest is just math and the business .


I like your blog and shall revisit . Nothing derogatory in this assumption ....... your linguistic syntax suggests to me , you have experience in Forex .
I think the current static in the market has nothing to do with linear projections . The worlds bourse can be reshuffled and the fillers will take up any slack caused by the previous tenants .
Once a decent reshuffle and laggards earnings return , the linear projections can start again . Miners were laggards for decades .........
Speaking of laggards , their was a historical price on soybeans last night $13 .

By the way , I don't tell and I don't argue , I debate and put my view forward comrade .

 

[treefrog]

It would be funny but....
How did the short go.... it was only ever going to be very short term, (although expecting a retracement of sorts tonight) based on momentum....
took another short @ 890, set stop, go to dinner, & I kid you not,
come back, stopped out, price drops $10 immediately after getting stopped out!! .

Trading, 90% luck or something!! doh! I'll stick to investing, better results

QUOTE]

quite a few broker's trading platforms in forex and commodities make sure they take out the nearby stops just as it moves - so give your stop plenty of breathing space or don't tell them where yours is (manual)

 

[explod]

weakening or Deja Vu

Agree, the HUI is at an all time high at close of trade this am and is looking overbought. So for short term I am on watch

 

[ithatheekret]

$12-$13 off the top already , looks like a correction already , if it's in POG it will probably show up in softer commodities as well . Dubai markets smashed it down , started in London . Presidents in the M.E. for a week , a whole week . must be playing ABBA songs with his mates .... money , money , money .............


Either that or he's hiding from Hilary ..........

Everything is correcting in the same week , now how's that for volatility ......


Calls for a 50 basis points cut . I'd be amazed if they got it , but Ben seems to be a pretty easy going , go with the flow kinda guy .
I think he's more inclined to give them a razor for the bankers wrists , and the axe for mortgage payers . The axe works better with gravity .

BoE slammed the cupboard door shut on a cut , even as Marks and Sparks pleaded for mercy . Tougher than a hanging judge at the old Bailey , I bet UK homeowners wish they could vote the BoE board away .

 

[chops_a_must]

$12-$13 off the top already , looks like a correction already , if it's in POG it will probably show up in softer commodities as well . Dubai markets smashed it down , started in London . Presidents in the M.E. for a week , a whole week . must be playing ABBA songs with his mates .... money , money , money .............

Yes. I was looking at AUD Gold technicals today again, from the trade I took on it about $83. It went vertical past my eventual probable breakout target, and nudged up against the maximum target I would have pushed it to. Wanted to go short at first sign of weakness, but am buggered from work, so am leaving it alone to protect from brain errors tonight.

It's a bit of a concern that Barrett is the only one that seems to have picked up that near vertical blow off top. Things don't continue to go vertical without severe short term consequences.

Looking like a big gap fill tonight, and how it reacts to that (i.e. filling or selling into it) will determine trade direction for the next week I would say...

 

[ithatheekret]

I think my last exits would have been timely , the day had worn itself out on the moves , very OB , needs it's space .

The Euro has been the thing that has my eyes , been all over the place with it up down and around , Cable was a simpler decision .

Let's see if the 341/42 method works here , remember that brawl ?

Risque to call bottoms , but will try 868 through to 871/872 ish only areas that have come up in each calculation so far . Got one 869 patch in there too , it's odd because it's the first time that area has shown up in the figures , even though we know the price area has to be there , we went passed it ........

On the last run through I have no 839 this time either , gain one lose one .....

 

[chops_a_must]

I think my last exits would have been timely , the day had worn itself out on the moves , very OB , needs it's space .

The Euro has been the thing that has my eyes , been all over the place with it up down and around , Cable was a simpler decision .

Let's see if the 341/42 method works here , remember that brawl ?

Risque to call bottoms , but will try 868 through to 871/872 ish only areas that have come up in each calculation so far . Got one 869 patch in there too , it's odd because it's the first time that area has shown up in the figures , even though we know the price area has to be there , we went passed it ........

On the last run through I have no 839 this time either , gain one lose one .....

I'm thinking of that gap down to 861. I thought that's where we would be heading tonight. But, there was a big buying spike in there. Gold just seems to be travelling between these buying and selling spikes at the moment. So, I'm expecting sideways movement for a while yet. Another possibility is down to about 840, if the upper levels don't hold. But I can't see that happening anytime soon unless it really gets some steam up. Just way too much strength on any weakness.

 

[ithatheekret]

We'll have to see who gets the closest Chops .

No panic for me only holding physical now , done the deed I needed to do , bet I get strange little oriental knick knacks when on the return .

Last visit , there were people handing out tissues etc. on street corners , not much of a job , don't know if that's their gainful employment system or what ....


Just looking at the S&P , yep stuffs cheap alright , been down to 1390 got a dose of miracle tonic and they're still selling it . Must be the banks bad breathe . Even MBIA looks good , hmm should I go to bed or book a doctors appointment .

No curbs out though ........

 

[barrett]

Actually I think Uncle Festivus might have to take the honours there Chops for placing a short within $1 of the top.. stopped out but still, it was quite a call..

The way this market is following EW theory is uncanny to me, the chart below looks straight out of Frost&Prechter.. ithatheekret to me the bottom just now at 865 seemed imminent in real time as the market approached it, given the wave count (wave c normally won't want to come below the top of wave i).. and the lower channel boundary.. on account of this chart I nearly bought 4GC at 867 but desperately needed some sleep.. an hour later I have neither sleep nor the money lol. But I mean, in this kind of setup EW is useful, in other cases not so..

Still long but still undecided between the 'superbull 950' count and the grizzly count in the last chart.. EW suggests we are are due for quite a major interim top since the beginning of this impulse at 643.. and yet this recent activity did not quite have the flavour of a mania to me, yet.. if this thing were to convincingly take out 891 then onwards towards more of a real 'mini-mania' top I would say. Until 891 is claimed I'm also 'wait and see' here but mindful of the fact that if we are near or past a major interim top (will post longer term charts), a quite substantial correction of possibly over $100 would be on the cards, as Marc Faber is expecting

Dennis Gartman sold 50% of his gold position at around the top.. as of yesterday was expecting a correction to around 825 in coming days.. will be interested to see whether tonight's action changes his view..
cheers

 

[ithatheekret]

I just went in to squizzy about thought won't hurt to take a dip opp . except I get on site and WTF it's $882 knocking on $883 again , blimey didn't take long to shaft that idea , I expected to see 870's . Quicker than a claytons recession . Fritz , fritz and fritz .