Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Gold Price - Where is it heading?

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Hmmm the early entry cost me there , only $3200 + on old exit so best hang on a tad , just a tad $15K is $15K, by the way the allocation never exceeds the original , just a personal discipline , By the way buying on the down here in 10 cent increments each way did work to ...... and i don't intend to play chicken all day swinging , ( I'm gone the toppers limit bell went off ) , must have hit 88860 .
 
I think I should confess , here , I broke one of my fundamental principles today in these trades . I traded because I needed extra cash for my eldest daughter ( whom I'm extremely proud of , silent achiever my lass ) to go to Japan on a teachers conference .

Normally I never take on extra risk because of a need , as half the time need is want ...... and greedy is a dizzy substance .
 
Interesting all the attempts to be the first or to be the best in the T/A, and I try to be in it too, seem to be generally a long way from the targets.

Anyway I have just had a real good think, a hard call for me by the way, but whilst helping the missus with the shopping and am at my best,..to concentrate that is, so as said did some mulling.

Conclusion, this gold bull is different and it has a dogged mind of its own. It has defied most of the T/A calls, from since I had a rough idea of what that meant, beeing about two years.

It is said of a trend that there is about 70% that it will continue its line, 15% that it will go down and about 15% that it will tickup steeper. (Dont ask where I read that, dont rmebr) So good chance it will keep going up as it has done of late.

Fundamentals; dollar is stuffed, economies looking stuffed, money value draining out. India, China, Russia and now a rumour US investors all seeking to buy gold as protection.

Have to hold, no better offers.

Oh by the way, my book project is about roulette and it involves patience and charting, you could be quoted Itha,.... opps didn't want that out
 
explod said:
Interesting all the attempts to be the first or to be the best in the T/A, and I try to be in it too, seem to be generally a long way from the targets.


Conclusion, this gold bull is different and it has a dogged mind of its own. It has defied most of the T/A calls, from since I had a rough idea of what that meant, beeing about two years.


Oh by the way, my book project is about roulette and it involves patience and charting, you could be quoted Itha,.... opps didn't want that out
Click to expand...

Yes I agree explod , it has a mind of it's own , it became an investment vehicle once again , so it must have its own unique attributes .

I must say observation and application are always best self taught , but if you can take a page out of someones book to add to yours , so to speak , you fall under the class as a professional in my books .

I'm not competing here I can assure you of that , I just say what I see , and what I finally figure out . I don't call shovels spades and I don't use spanners as hammers either .

I'd say I'm more in line with a spanner in the brokers works .

If that's saboutage , I plead guilty .

Money going around in circles doesn't create economic growth if it doesn't leave the country , the US has had a significant problem here .

As the piles of money kept circulating , a few ended up with other peoples piles ,,,,,,, usually mums and dads and that gets my wick up .

Like I said some where else here , they sold garbage for years , now they have a pile of junk . If anything I may happened to have mused in a debate has saved or made some family money , it was worth every late night .

I think the intent of the big players is evil , and there's a good saying about good men and evil , I hope the Lord considers me a good man .

Sometimes when I post I think people must either think I'm an idiot or off with the pixies , it's in my make up to cop that sweet , and boy some comments elsewhere did get me moving once , had to get over that .

I thoroughly believe in collective intelligence and that is in my foundation .


PS.. the craps tables #1 and the caribbean stud #2 pay the best ratios from my calculations .
 
ithatheekret said:
Sometimes when I post I think people must either think I'm an idiot or off with the pixies , it's in my make up to cop that sweet , and boy some comments elsewhere did get me moving once , had to get over that .

I thoroughly believe in collective intelligence and that is in my foundation .


PS.. the craps tables #1 and the caribbean stud #2 pay the best ratios from my calculations .
Click to expand...


I for one like your posts.

Your right with Craps, But Caribbean is way down the foodchain (very profitable game for the house), Baccarat comes in second - Those with fantastic memorys should consider Blackjack, a good card counter can flip the odds in his/her favor ;)
 
Thanks for that NC


I should have mentioned with stud when playing against the house , you should be playing two hands at least ...... and always cough up the chip each deal , if you have a semi full table minus your seat , the odds improve dramatically , I got three books one night took a very nice jackpot and left immediately :D

Baccarrat yeah , guts and class is a hard find for some , nerves of steel earns rewards . You're a classy act if you've conquered baccarat .

And that was my last peak for the day , 889910 average there I think .


I used no stops only limits and market finale , but I had four charts running , getting my monies worth out of the new unit , the fans in it can part ya hair .
Margin looks good now , wish I could keep it all there .

No 88900 an three at 889905 .
 
numbercruncher said:
I for one like your posts.

Your right with Craps, But Caribbean is way down the foodchain (very profitable game for the house), Baccarat comes in second - Those with fantastic memorys should consider Blackjack, a good card counter can flip the odds in his/her favor ;)
Click to expand...

Wrong and Itha too. Of all the games Roulette is the only one that has a physical wheel and a shooting dealer. Some wheels have ballance and manufracture defects and some dealers just spin it the same all the time. These physical matters can be measured and the bias far greater than the house edge of 2.5%,
 
anyone see a mistake above on the exits the three should read 889005.....

crikey guys ......... hmmm ....... it must be market shock .

....... did the 300 test 6100 ? I haven't been game to look today , and I hope the 200 stayed above 6000 .
 
Uncle Festivus said:
What a difference an hour makes - Dow get's another cold and say good bye to 5% NEM, but gold stock disconnection starting. Didn't take that short @ $880 (too tired :eek:) but did do one @ $889 this morning.

And open the champers - $1000 per oz in Aussie bleeders
Click to expand...

Absolutely, that is cause for celebration! :band

Uncle Festivus, with this short are you anticipating an interim top here, or just an intra-day trade..?

Anyone else finding it never makes an important move until you've sat down for dinner? :eek: lol
 
explod said:
Wrong and Itha too. Of all the games Roulette is the only one that has a physical wheel and a shooting dealer. Some wheels have ballance and manufracture defects and some dealers just spin it the same all the time. These physical matters can be measured and the bias far greater than the house edge of 2.5%,
Click to expand...


I agree a bias wheel will throw the odds in your favor bigtime, youll spend a long time looking though, they are tested for mechanical defects all the time. I have heard of groups cleaning up with bias wheels in the past though, doesnt last long they would shut the table I bet!

And the dealer thing is just a fallacy imho, If dealers could section spin casinos would be getting hammered all the time, too many variables the little cogs on the face of the wheels, fins around the number that riqocet the ball.

Those Big wheels im convinced a dealer could section spin though, no variables if the spin the same pressure every time.
 
I have been looking for possibilities how to invest in "physical gold", but I have not find any in particular. I do not like the idea having gold in my cabinet...
Could you give me some hints or tips how to get one's exposure to gold? Maybe some companies which benefit from the rise of gold price.
I use ComSec.
It is a pitty there is no ETF which deals with physical gold... (at least according to my research).
I do not mean it like recommending some companies, just to get me some place to start my research. You can write me a private message.

Many thanks for your help, I appreciate it.
 
numbercruncher said:
I agree a bias wheel will throw the odds in your favor bigtime, youll spend a long time looking though, they are tested for mechanical defects all the time. I have heard of groups cleaning up with bias wheels in the past though, doesnt last long they would shut the table I bet!

And the dealer thing is just a fallacy imho, If dealers could section spin casinos would be getting hammered all the time, too many variables the little cogs on the face of the wheels, fins around the number that riqocet the ball.

Those Big wheels im convinced a dealer could section spin though, no variables if the spin the same pressure every time.
Click to expand...

You are correct but it can be found for short terms and yes they often close tables down. Here at Crown in Melbourne where there are plenty of tables operating the opportunities are there, I do not go to make a fortune, and dont, but it is great entertainment trying. I am not the gambling type, but while my wife does I amuse myself with this idea

Yes section spinners are often found to advantage.
 
Just thought I may get back onto the subject. Silver continues to stengthen tonight. When silver leads gold really starts to fly. Any takers on that???
 

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Hi explod. I'll respond to your question .I suppose this belongs on the silver thread ,but,what the heck... Perhaps the question is a bit chicken and egg/cause and effect.Which does the leading Gold or Silver?

This article is relevant , I think.I had to edit a bit to fit the maximum character rule

For a few months now, people have been wondering why the silver price seems to be lagging behind the gold price. After all, in 1980, gold hit $850/oz., and silver peaked out at $50/oz. But today, gold is making new all-time highs at $890 today, while silver languishes at a mere $15.83 as I begin this article this evening. My wife thought it was no coincidence that Ron Paul was on Jay Leno last night on Jan 7th, talking about the need for "Constituational" gold and silver money after having been excluded from the Fox News Republican debate. Jay Leno was shocked at the snub, as Ron Paul has raised more money than any of the other candidates!

So, silver rose from $15.22 earlier today to $15.88 now! That's up 4% in one day!

In recent years, from about 2001, the ratio of the price of silver to gold has risen from about 70 to 80 ounces of silver, for 1 ounce of gold, to about 56, where it stands today. In fact, in the past 6 months, the ratio has remained rather steady at about 55 to 1.

In 1980, the ratio had returned to the historic 15 to 1 ratio.

So, only when compared to 1980, can silver still be described as "languishing". Yes, it might be said that we are still at the bottom of a 27 year bear market for silver. (But now, we have "price action" and a price "breakout!")

But if you consider the time frame of the past 6 years, silver is outperforming gold, as the number of ounces of silver needed to buy gold has narrowed from 80 to 55.

So then, why is silver not at $50/oz. yet?

The reason, I think, is that gold is not at $850 (circa 1980). The reason is that the measuring stick of the dollar is completely broken.

We must adjust for inflation since 1980. Today's gold market will be like the gold market of 1980 only after you adjust for inflation. We are not there yet.
But a key difficulty is: "How should we adjust for inflation?"

We can adjust via the CPI, the government produced inflation statistics, but these, most agree, understate inflation.

An online inflation calculator quickly shows that $850 in 1980 is really $2275 in 2006.

http://www.westegg.com/inflation/

However, my research shows that M3 in 1980 was $1.8 trillion. Today, M3 is just over $13 trillion, as pointed out by http://www.nowandfutures.com/key_stats.html#m3b

So, 13 divided by 1.8 is 7.2, which is what we need to multiply the 1980's gold price by, to get a more accurate "money creation inflation" adjusted price for today's dollars.

$850 x 7.2 = $6120

Gold, today is not at $6120/oz., and therefore, there is not the same kind of excitement about gold today like there was in 1980. By the time gold hits $6120, or a somewhat higher price by the time we reach it, because it will take time to get there, and during that time there will be even more dollar price inflation by which to adjust, I would only then expect a similar excitement about gold that existed in 1980.

I believe it is that kind of excitement that will drive the ratio price of silver to gold back to the historic norm of 15:1, and most likely exceed it.

So, by the time gold hits $6120/oz., or higher, silver will hit $408/oz. or higher. (Because $6120 divided by 15 equals $408.)

And by then, silver will have merely "kept pace" with gold, having returned to the historic ratio. And that's what we could expect if the investment outlook for both metals was about the same.

However, for a whole host of reasons which I will now list, I expect the silver price to do significantly better than that.

Primarily, the silver to gold ratio held for hundreds of years at about 10-15 to 1, during which time silver and gold were money around the world. But in the late 1800's, Germany stopped using silver as money, and silver began to be "demonetized" as nations went to the "gold standard".

The Democrats in America, back in the late 1800's supported silver as money, while the Republicans supported only gold as money, but not silver. The Democrats were seen as inflationists, on the side of debtors and the masses of people, while the Republicans supported creditors, such as banks and businesses.

The original story of the Wizard of Oz was like a parable of the battle between silver and gold. The original "ruby shoes" that Dorothy wore in the movie were really originally "silver shoes" that would set everything all right again, and end the nightmarish fantasy of the "yellow brick road" which was a symbol of the gold standard, and backed up by nothing more than a funny man in an Emerald City (green paper money) who made loud scary noises behind a curtain.

Today's Democrats have morphed into a party that still supports inflation, but via higher government domestic spending programs. And most of today's Republicans have morphed into a party that tries to defend the value of the dollar by waging war on nations that think of selling oil for Euros instead of dollars.

I explain all of that, because I find it fascinating, but also because it goes to show the reduced monetary demand for silver was a trend that started over 100 years ago. This very long trend of a reduced monetary demand for silver continued all the way until 1964, when it really accelerated and was completed, which was the last year that silver was coined as money in the U.S. But the demonetization trend continued as old people of the last of the "silver money era" die off as they are doing today, and as ignorant 60 year old baby boomers inherit that silver, and typically sell the silver to invest in the real estate bubble.

I believe that trend of "silver demonetization" of over 100 years is now over, and ended for good. Why? Because people are going to make tons and tons of money as silver rises from $15/oz. to over $408/oz., and people are now seeing the potential of that, and are investing money into silver, and using silver as a store of value again, which, in other terms, means a return to "monetary demand".

Money, after all, serves several purposes, as a unit of account, a means of exchange, and a store of value. As investors buy silver to make money, they are using silver as money (as a store of value), and this is the return of monetary demand for silver, which is the reversal of the trend of over 100 years.

But a funny thing happened to silver just over 60 years ago. The age of electronics began. At the end of World War II, there was a boom in the use of electric devices that needed silver for the electrical contact switches. Per capital silver demand skyrocketed in about two years, up tenfold, from about less than a tenth of an ounce of silver used per year, to nearly 7 tenths of an ounce of silver consumed per year per person in the U.S. And that rate of silver consumption has stayed about the same ever since.

During that time frame, I estimate that about 8 billion ounces of silver were consumed in the U.S. alone, most irretrievably lost forever to be re-deposited back into landfills, and never recycled, nor recyclable. That's about 1/5 of all the silver ever mined by all of humanity. The rest of the world probably consumed the other 3/5ths of the silver, leaving less than 1/5 remaining.

Most of the rest of the silver sits in forms that are uneconomic to recycle. For example, you may have purchased a silver ring recently for $25, and it may contain about 1/5th of an ounce of silver. Well, you just bought silver at $125/oz. or so if you have purchased any silver jewelry. Silver is even more expensive if it is in the form of tableware or cups.

So, although monetary demand for silver is slowly beginning to return, it still has not started yet in any significant and meaningful way.

Silver investment demand may only be about 50 million ounces per year, while silver recycling probably stands at about 200 million ounces.

So, with so little silver available for investment, silver is easily set to outpace gold, and exceed the historic 15 to 1 ration by the time there is any public excitement about the precious metals.

By the time even 1% of the nation's $13 trillion in liquid wealth tries to buy gold and silver within a year, the price of gold will probably exceed $3000/oz., and the price of silver would probably exceed $150/oz.

Let me show again how small the silver market really is. The annual production is about 650 million ounces, with recycling about 200 million, and other silver sold about 50 million ounces. That's a total of about 900 million physical ounces of "fresh" silver entering the market, in a year. That is balanced by about 900 million ounces of consumption, which is balanced by about 45% demand in electronics, about 30% demand in jewelry, and about 20% demand in photography. About 5% is investment demand.

Oh, I suppose more silver than that actually trades each year, as some investors sell silver to other investors, but that's the total net flows.

But if new investors enter the market, they will have to displace that 900 million ounce annual flow (which can only be done at higher prices), and there is little silver left for any new significant monetary demand, that will surely be coming in the near future now that inflation is picking up



As silver moves from $16/oz. to $408/oz., which is literally guaranteed by historical ratios and historical inflation measures, and insured by the silver scarcity, many people will make well over 2500% (as denominated in dollars) on their silver investment.



Sincerely

Jason Hommel
 
Pretty good graph showing Inflation adjusted price over the times!

I like the Money supply adjusted price though, makes me feel all warm and furry inside lol :cautious:


cngold106big.gif
 

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