Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[josjes]

Not sure of your correlation here. Apart from the dip in November, oil compared to gold has basically gone sideways whilst gold in the same period has gone from US$750 to almost 900.

This whole week as oil has gone from 97.50 to 92.50 gold has gone the other way by around $30. In fact it has gone up this week even as the $US dollar rose.

Some weeks ago it also seemed to follow the Dow but has decoupled from this as well. The uncertainty in the markets, in particular the concern at the impending collapse of the worlds reserve currency is clearly reflected in the growing strength of the gold price

It's not so much the amplitude of price change, but the direction of both. If you open the link above, and observe carefully the chart may have explain that better. This chart is not just over weeks, but months and years.
So, if you believe the co-relation movement, then the fall of the price of oil last week foretell a fall of POG soon if not in the next week.

 

[numbercruncher]

Flight to gold as investors lose faith in money

In the Middle Ages gold fetched nearly $3,000 an ounce in real terms. The price fell to nearer $550 when Spain flooded the world with Aztec and Inca riches, and there it hovered for three centuries.

But the modern era has been an aberration. Supply is exhausted. Perhaps we should now regard the Middle Ages as the proper benchmark price. One thing is certain: gold will outperform paper as long as governments keep increasing the global money supply 15 per cent a year.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?view=DETAILS&grid=&xml=/money/2008/01/06/ccgold106.xml


So many angles to look at, Russia I understand is aiming to keep 10pc of reserves in Gold, and with soo much money rolling in they must be continually buying.

 

[ithatheekret]

In one of my correllations I do have oil not spot on , but close to following POG with a few wanders , there are many seperations though , which takes me straight back to the Swissie , USD and the Euro figures . The Yen correlation is all over the place , which leads me to think a very strong phase of the Yen , before a collapse in the price against some of it's trading partners , except China , where strangely enough , the projected levels strengthen , I don't want to go there they can sort that one out , but it's on trade balance figures there as I don't seem to be able to get much data from that patch of the woods , either country .......

I will add this little secret I use , the monthly house decline percentage was in my earliest figures and have been discounted as has the inflation input , the data is ineffable for me at present , but let me just say , each solution I have put forward has been the lowest median extracted . The maximum projections would call for a war / hyperinflation or a complete collapse in the housing market , or all of the above . That's where the tranches above1140/1170&1190 start ,one of the above would be needed to acheive these , there are higher tranches , but they are very wide apart and inconclusive so I wouldn't even contemplate putting them forward in present circumstances .

Try pricing oil in Euros and look at projections , that'll give you a few restless night sleeps .

 

[BREND]

Not sure of your correlation here. Apart from the dip in November, oil compared to gold has basically gone sideways whilst gold in the same period has gone from US$750 to almost 900.

This whole week as oil has gone from 97.50 to 92.50 gold has gone the other way by around $30. In fact it has gone up this week even as the $US dollar rose.

Some weeks ago it also seemed to follow the Dow but has decoupled from this as well. The uncertainty in the markets, in particular the concern at the impending collapse of the worlds reserve currency is clearly reflected in the growing strength of the gold price

I have noticed the correlation as well. Usually oil price x 9 = gold price. Hence I do expect gold price to reach a peak soon.

But I do agree that we will see gold price reaching US$1000, maybe this year.

 

[grace]

Does anyone know if there is a thread on gold.asx? (can't seem to find it). Was wondering of members thoughts on this, or where thoughts are on this site if they exist? Thankyou in advance

 

[Stormin_Norman]

as an economist, gold will continue to rise if uncertainty surrounding the 'subprime' loan market continues and inflation worries continue in the western economies. gold is a refuge, and i can see a fair few investors sailing into port.

 

[Whiskers]

Does anyone know if there is a thread on gold.asx? (can't seem to find it). Was wondering of members thoughts on this, or where thoughts are on this site if they exist? Thankyou in advance

I'm not quite sure what you mean Grace.

Do you mean physical gold or dirivitives traded on the ASX or in Aus, or a thread on gold in AUD?

 

[So_Cynical]

I think she means Ticker GOLD traded on the ASX

no theres no thread that i know of.

 

[grace]

I think she means Ticker GOLD traded on the ASX

no theres no thread that i know of.

Yes, I mean gold (that is the code listed on our asx.....saw a write up in the bulletin mag a few months back on how to obtain exposure to gold price, and this was one suggestion) Gold Bullion Ltd

They just buy gold and store it in a vault and charge 0.4% pa in fees. If you can't quite buy a bullion, then perhaps this could be an alternative. sp follows spot price I think. No expert though.......asking the experts about it here.......

Are there others (apart from miners) on the asx to gain exposure to gold (apart from buying from the mint yourself)?

 

[Nyden]

Yes, I mean gold (that is the code listed on our asx.....saw a write up in the bulletin mag a few months back on how to obtain exposure to gold price, and this was one suggestion) Gold Bullion Ltd

They just buy gold and store it in a vault and charge 0.4% pa in fees. If you can't quite buy a bullion, then perhaps this could be an alternative. sp follows spot price I think. No expert though.......asking the experts about it here.......

Are there others (apart from miners) on the asx to gain exposure to gold (apart from buying from the mint yourself)?

I believe http://www.perthmint.com.au/perthmintgold.aspx
ZAUWBA Found this whilst looking for gold exposure.
I could be wrong though, I'm not exactly a gold bug : Yet, at least.

Doesn't even seem to trade though (as it's a call-warrant!), GOLD is probably a much better option; the part about the fees isn't all that appealing, though.

 

[BREND]

February is seasonally a weak month for gold, so really don't have to rush buying Gold ETF or Gold stocks. I may even initiate sell call for my clients in Feb 08.

 

[GreatPig]

Doesn't even seem to trade though (as it's [ZAUWBA] a call-warrant!)

It does trade, although typically the MM (Goldcorp) is the only one with a bid or offer.

The warrants aren't geared and are in 100ths of an ounce (not 10ths, like GOLD). There's also an annual fee if you're holding at the end of December, but it's somehow built into the spread in case you're not holding then. Read the PDS for details.

GP

 

[Kauri]

Just keeps boxing on... and on.. and oops..
Cheers
.........Kauri

 

[Stormin_Norman]

i dont know what all those lines mean, but with the USD having a depreciation on most of its cross rates, along with the continual problems surrounding the subprime market in the USA (and global exposure to it) and the russian central bank buying gold with its new found wealth, i see gold value only increasing further as these factors continue to be influencing world markets.

and to think that 8 or so years ago gold was almost worthless. as an economist i dont understand the desire for a piece of dirt, but according to the markets its the base storer of value - and if that's the case, the more speculation and uncertainty about the world economy's outlook the more money that will be 'parked' in gold.

russia got hit in the late 90s with critically low foreign reserves. they ran out of reserves, and with gold a fraction of the current price was running out of it to sell too. the russians are probably burnt by this baptism into the capitalist world economy and are making sure it isn't repeated.

when will the gold rush end?it will end when the current uncertain economic factors influencing the increased demand for gold subside. that's not however to say others, possibly more significant events dont change the whole equation again.

 

[explod]

Just keeps boxing on... and on.. and oops..
Cheers
.........Kauri

Yep, and you can see the same possibility almost, on then 22nd, the 27th and the 29-30th. Line radiating up as she goes. Just depends where one puts the lines. We could also place one reasonably off the tops of the uptrend. Not convinced, but who knows. This bull is different. The basics of charting have defied a lot of the way.

Will be interesting to see what pans out. HUI certainly looks a bit hot too.

 

[refined silver]

I have noticed the correlation as well. Usually oil price x 9 = gold price. Hence I do expect gold price to reach a peak soon.

But I do agree that we will see gold price reaching US$1000, maybe this year.

The historical Gold/Oil ratio is 15, but like every ratio, continually overshoots the mean from one side to the other. That means at the peak of the gold bull the ratio will be much higher than 15, maybe 20, maybe 30, maybe higher.

 

[refined silver]

and to think that 8 or so years ago gold was almost worthless. as an economist i dont understand the desire for a piece of dirt, but according to the markets its the base storer of value - and if that's the case, the more speculation and uncertainty about the world economy's outlook the more money that will be 'parked' in gold.

The reason for golds value is simple. It is the only thing which functions as money and has the necessary attributes - rare, divisible, transportable, accepted, and can't be produced out of thin air. It has served as money for 5,000 years of human history and will continue to. Given human nature and govt's propensity the availablility of the printing press (now electronic) to grant themselves free money by just printing more, and the result is the continual increase in the money supply and the ultimate destruction of the "fiat" currency.

 

[Whiskers]

i dont know what all those lines mean,

That's what you call a Jack Stand. It's a new adaption (contraption) to charting

It's stops the stairway to higher prices from falling down.

 

[numbercruncher]

I believe http://www.perthmint.com.au/perthmintgold.aspx
ZAUWBA Found this whilst looking for gold exposure.
I could be wrong though, I'm not exactly a gold bug : Yet, at least.

Doesn't even seem to trade though (as it's a call-warrant!), GOLD is probably a much better option; the part about the fees isn't all that appealing, though.

Reason I dont like GOLD is that The gold is physically held at the London Vaults of HSBC Bank USA.

Part of the reason I love gold is that I have reservations about the stability of the entire US financial system, so having gold stored there would make me nervous!

My preference is for Physical Gold and Gold stocks.

 

[rederob]

That's what you call a Jack Stand. It's a new adaption (contraption) to charting

It's stops the stairway to higher prices from falling down.

Well, well well....
I thought it was an oil rig, propping up gold!