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Not sure i follow as BE is usually no profit ,no loss?
Gold Digger
- Thread starter Triple B
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- gold trading gold
Was also thinking at work today about the 30 gold trades in the 170 fx tests . That was 30 Gold trades in 3 weeks or 15 trading days. So two trades a day on average. I was only taking the best set up because I had other pairs to keep me out of the gold.
I did notice then there is usually 1-3 decent tradeable moves a night in gold. really going to try to take only the best .
When looking at the one pair I start lookin for trades that simply dont make sense. This is where the self restraint will be required . I have traded before just 3 trades per night,no stats but,
I did notice then there is usually 1-3 decent tradeable moves a night in gold. really going to try to take only the best .
When looking at the one pair I start lookin for trades that simply dont make sense. This is where the self restraint will be required . I have traded before just 3 trades per night,no stats but,
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That is interesting as gold (XAU) was good to me last night , were GBP was hard going.
Gday Will . No its dead tonight USA close early tonight I believe .
Yes BE is no loss no profit. For ME a BE trade is also a trade that moved to 1:1 and did not reach 2:1 (or better)target . In other words I move my stop to BE when price reaches 1:1 profit .
If the target is 2:1 .
I dont take 1:1 profit trades
hats not to say I wont later but testing for now
If target is say 4:1 Then Stop is managed the same . However once near 3:1 move stop to lock in 2:1 profit. So if it turns around I still get 2:1 profit .
Real hard to do sometimes but thats why Im testing things out
Yes BE is no loss no profit. For ME a BE trade is also a trade that moved to 1:1 and did not reach 2:1 (or better)target . In other words I move my stop to BE when price reaches 1:1 profit .
If the target is 2:1 .
I dont take 1:1 profit trades
hats not to say I wont later but testing for nowIf target is say 4:1 Then Stop is managed the same . However once near 3:1 move stop to lock in 2:1 profit. So if it turns around I still get 2:1 profit .
Real hard to do sometimes but thats why Im testing things out
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I found last night my scaling out not working , when price went just under my 2R target then retraced taking me out at BE.
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Big spike in GBP?
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yep
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Thought it might have something to do with Brexit.
So . I was reading Ducs post about COT data. (commitment of traders)
This is futures trading data , in this case Gold contract (GC)
It show the long and short positions of the different categories of traders on the futures exchanges.
I had considered looking into this a while ago , but totally forgot about it.
I trade (try to trade ) spot gold (XAU/USD)
The COT give valuable info on where the big money is positioned.
It is published on Friday afternoon at 3:30 according to The USCFTC (commodities trading mob)
Anyway the data shows positions of producers .......here it is copy and pasted
Producer/Merchant/Processor/User A “producer/merchant/processor/user” is an entity that predominantly engages in the production, processing, packing or handling of a physical commodity and uses the futures markets to manage or hedge risks associated with those activities. Swap Dealer A “swap dealer” is an entity that deals primarily in swaps for a commodity and uses the futures markets to manage or hedge the risk associated with those swaps transactions. The swap dealer’s counterparties may be speculative traders, like hedge funds, or traditional commercial clients that are managing risk arising from their dealings in the physical commodity.
Money Manager A “money manager,” for the purpose of this report, is a registered commodity trading advisor (CTA); a registered commodity pool operator (CPO); or an unregistered fund identified by CFTC.7 These traders are engaged in managing and conducting organized futures trading on behalf of clients. Other Reportables Every other reportable trader that is not placed into one of the other three categories is placed into the “other reportables” category. Spreading The Disaggregated COT sets out open interest by long, short, and spreading for the three categories of traders—“swap dealers,” “managed money,” and “other reportable.” For the “producer/merchant/processor/user” category, open interest is reported only by long or short positions. “Spreading” is a computed amount equal to offsetting long and short positions held by a trader. The computed amount of spreading is calculated as the amount of offsetting futures in different calendar months or offsetting futures and options in the same or different calendar months. Any residual long or short position is reported in the long or short column. Inter-market spreads are not considered.
Anyways ,the data Im interested in is the Money Managers , Other reportable , Non Reportable,
in other words the Speculators.
The chart below shows the CMX futures data on a chart for the last 10weeks.
Blue arrows show the close candle of the date the data was collected ,a Tuesday.
Yellow arrow show the close candle of the Friday that the data is published,at 3:30 NY time
the + or - signs show if the Trader group positions were net short=- or net Long +
MM = Money Manager OR = Other reportable NR = Non Reportable ( the little guys)
SN = Speculator Net . This is the total of all the Long positions -Short positions a + means net long a - means net short x number of contracts at close Tuesday
Intersting to see the Money managers were net short -109454 on 9/10/18 and ran for the hills when the Stock markets corrected , next tuesday 16/10/18 they were net short -49382 short 60000 contracts less! No wonder there was a massive bull stampede as they closed there short positions.
data for last Tuesday is not available till monday Due to holidays.
Chart is a little cluttered but Legible.Small chart is a wide view of the 4hr report days marked with arrows
This is futures trading data , in this case Gold contract (GC)
It show the long and short positions of the different categories of traders on the futures exchanges.
I had considered looking into this a while ago , but totally forgot about it.
I trade (try to trade ) spot gold (XAU/USD)
The COT give valuable info on where the big money is positioned.
It is published on Friday afternoon at 3:30 according to The USCFTC (commodities trading mob)
Anyway the data shows positions of producers .......here it is copy and pasted
Producer/Merchant/Processor/User A “producer/merchant/processor/user” is an entity that predominantly engages in the production, processing, packing or handling of a physical commodity and uses the futures markets to manage or hedge risks associated with those activities. Swap Dealer A “swap dealer” is an entity that deals primarily in swaps for a commodity and uses the futures markets to manage or hedge the risk associated with those swaps transactions. The swap dealer’s counterparties may be speculative traders, like hedge funds, or traditional commercial clients that are managing risk arising from their dealings in the physical commodity.
Money Manager A “money manager,” for the purpose of this report, is a registered commodity trading advisor (CTA); a registered commodity pool operator (CPO); or an unregistered fund identified by CFTC.7 These traders are engaged in managing and conducting organized futures trading on behalf of clients. Other Reportables Every other reportable trader that is not placed into one of the other three categories is placed into the “other reportables” category. Spreading The Disaggregated COT sets out open interest by long, short, and spreading for the three categories of traders—“swap dealers,” “managed money,” and “other reportable.” For the “producer/merchant/processor/user” category, open interest is reported only by long or short positions. “Spreading” is a computed amount equal to offsetting long and short positions held by a trader. The computed amount of spreading is calculated as the amount of offsetting futures in different calendar months or offsetting futures and options in the same or different calendar months. Any residual long or short position is reported in the long or short column. Inter-market spreads are not considered.
Anyways ,the data Im interested in is the Money Managers , Other reportable , Non Reportable,
in other words the Speculators.
The chart below shows the CMX futures data on a chart for the last 10weeks.
Blue arrows show the close candle of the date the data was collected ,a Tuesday.
Yellow arrow show the close candle of the Friday that the data is published,at 3:30 NY time
the + or - signs show if the Trader group positions were net short=- or net Long +
MM = Money Manager OR = Other reportable NR = Non Reportable ( the little guys)
SN = Speculator Net . This is the total of all the Long positions -Short positions a + means net long a - means net short x number of contracts at close Tuesday
Intersting to see the Money managers were net short -109454 on 9/10/18 and ran for the hills when the Stock markets corrected , next tuesday 16/10/18 they were net short -49382 short 60000 contracts less! No wonder there was a massive bull stampede as they closed there short positions.
data for last Tuesday is not available till monday Due to holidays.
Chart is a little cluttered but Legible.Small chart is a wide view of the 4hr report days marked with arrows
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Certainly there's no need to panic, but you should be concerned by the low W%. Your determination to keep grinding it out isn't going to be enough. Like another you seem determined to do a set number of trades each day/week. What if there's only one perfect setup each day? Are you going to trade crap to ensure you trade your daily quota?
IMHO you should be focusing on one aspect of your trading and trying to improve it. Identify your most common mistake and work on eliminating this from your trading.
If you're trading perfectly and these are your results then I'd say you're setups/entries aren't good enough. Trading setups should indicate when there's a higher probability (>50%) of price moving in your direction. They don't guarantee a winning trade but they should allow you to skew the results favourably.
IMHO you should be focusing on one aspect of your trading and trying to improve it. Identify your most common mistake and work on eliminating this from your trading.
If you're trading perfectly and these are your results then I'd say you're setups/entries aren't good enough. Trading setups should indicate when there's a higher probability (>50%) of price moving in your direction. They don't guarantee a winning trade but they should allow you to skew the results favourably.
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Keep going mate and take what Peter2 said above into consideration like not overtrading.
Are you going to trade crap to ensure you trade your daily quota?
hi triple , so P2 has a couple of valid points above, i think, but it was this comment that stuck with me along with the "identify your most common mistake."
for my bit i have been chewing on this gold thing for most of the day. i said to you last week it could be a bitch and sometimes i consider flicking it all together, but other times it works. my thoughts for a while have been around trying to find a filter to stick on it to try and avoid the really bad bits.
if you have a look at the chart attached, i think i really should not have been bothering with gold at all since about the 16/11. it has been solidly sideways in a fairly tight range. to make matters worse the average range of the bars has been increasing for the last few days, meaning the bouncing up and down within each bar is getting larger , too large to be trying to trade this on small timeframes with tight stops. a fair amount of those bars range $2 or more each.
looking at last night on a 15m chart it was whipsaw city.
i am not sure how to filter this, love to hear comments. i am thinking about instituting a simple rule for gold that says something like don't trade it once macd starts to make lower highs on a 4 hr chart in an uptrend, opposite for down.
really it is the same simple story we want to be trading trends not sideways markets, but i think gold is worse than most when not trending.
just to be clear i understand that in your trading plan as with mine there are valid entries in this market, i am proposing an over arching blanket rule(filter) that just turns off my trading for gold under certain market conditions.
hi triple , so P2 has a couple of valid points above, i think, but it was this comment that stuck with me along with the "identify your most common mistake."
for my bit i have been chewing on this gold thing for most of the day. i said to you last week it could be a bitch and sometimes i consider flicking it all together, but other times it works. my thoughts for a while have been around trying to find a filter to stick on it to try and avoid the really bad bits.
if you have a look at the chart attached, i think i really should not have been bothering with gold at all since about the 16/11. it has been solidly sideways in a fairly tight range. to make matters worse the average range of the bars has been increasing for the last few days, meaning the bouncing up and down within each bar is getting larger , too large to be trying to trade this on small timeframes with tight stops. a fair amount of those bars range $2 or more each.
looking at last night on a 15m chart it was whipsaw city.
i am not sure how to filter this, love to hear comments. i am thinking about instituting a simple rule for gold that says something like don't trade it once macd starts to make lower highs on a 4 hr chart in an uptrend, opposite for down.
really it is the same simple story we want to be trading trends not sideways markets, but i think gold is worse than most when not trending.
just to be clear i understand that in your trading plan as with mine there are valid entries in this market, i am proposing an over arching blanket rule(filter) that just turns off my trading for gold under certain market conditions.
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OK No Quota , Should really be no More than aprox 4 trades per night in XAU
Last night had 10 . not happy.
Most common mistake is random/poor entries, Im feeling like doing nothing is un -productive,and needing to do something ,anything . My previous decent results in gold were when I was trading other pairs as well.
So felt like I was busy, able to wait for setups because I was always moving stops or filling log or something.
Might practice scalping EUR USD in Demo . while I wait for XAU set ups
Thanks for the advice
