GDX - VanEck Gold Miners ETF

[rcw1]

@rcw1 I have changed that red resistance line into blue support now. Hopefully the chart plays the game. Gold holding above $1700 should hold up the gold stocks, but general market weakness may find it retreating again of course.


View attachment 148999

Good morning SeanK,
Yep, agreed. Good job.

FYI some comments by Stuart Allsopp. Some people like him some don't, personally rcw1 can cop the lad. Anyways:

VanEck Gold Miners ETF: Bullish Breakout Points To Upside

VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF tracks the NYSE Arca Gold Mining Index. See why I think GDX has broken to the upside.

seekingalpha.com

FYI too: rcw1 is extra cautious with this expensive trading stock as at times it can be problematic for application of rcw1 real time trading methodologies:

• not enough volume; and
• too large a price gap between trades where there is lowish volume

All value adds to the challenges that await us

Kind regards
rcw1

 

[Sean K]

Good morning SeanK,
Yep, agreed. Good job.

FYI some comments by Stuart Allsopp. Some people like him some don't, personally rcw1 can cop the lad. Anyways:

VanEck Gold Miners ETF: Bullish Breakout Points To Upside

VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF tracks the NYSE Arca Gold Mining Index. See why I think GDX has broken to the upside.

seekingalpha.com

FYI too: rcw1 is extra cautious with this expensive trading stock as at times it can be problematic for application of rcw1 real time trading methodologies:

• not enough volume; and
• too large a price gap between trades where there is lowish volume

All value adds to the challenges that await us

Kind regards
rcw1

Agree, those gaps are a problem if trading. My investment horizon for the gold story is 1-2 years, so no problem for me.

 

[Sean K]

Agree, those gaps are a problem if trading. My investment horizon for the gold story is 1-2 years, so no problem for me.

and I'm very happy to see gaps up.... @rcw1

 

[rcw1]

Good morning
An article written by Adam Hamilton, Mining dot com, yesterday morning (18/11/22).
Those that have a keen interest in GDX, recommend reading the publication.
Some noteworthy points according to the author, (must read the paper for the full and true context to be revealed), anyways for mine:

• But while Q3’22 was disappointing, big gold-stock upside potential remains as gold mean reverts higher;
• Q3’22 offered no respite ... with the GDX top 25’s aggregate gold production falling 4.1% YoY to 8,162k ounces;
• Last quarter the GDX top 25’s average cash costs rocketed up 22.4% YoY to a record $975 per ounce! That was pretty shocking, as before Q1’20 these elite gold miners’ broader all-in sustaining costs had never been higher than $925;
• The GDX top 25’s bottom-line accounting profits certainly reflected their higher mining costs, plunging by 39.5% YoY to $1,699m! That’s definitely weak, the lowest since Q2’19. The previous ten quarters saw total earnings average $2,898m. To return near more-normal levels, the major gold miners either have to lower their rising AISCs or see better gold prices. Both are likely in coming quarters, really boosting profits; and
• Nevertheless the major gold miners still continued to generate solid profits and operating cash flows. They are forecasting lower all-in sustaining costs in coming quarters, which will boost earnings. And gold itself is overdue to mean revert way higher with that extreme US dollar parabola collapsing. So gold miners’ fundamentals should really improve, supporting much higher gold-stock prices as gold powers higher.

Have a very nice weekend.

Gold miners’ Q3 2022 fundamentals

The battered major gold miners’ stocks rocketed higher with their metal in recent weeks, showing signs of life.

www.mining.com

Not holding at present.

Edit: some punctuation etc fixed

Kind regards
rcw1

 

[Sean K]

This certainly looks like it's turned around now and heading north, for the minute. Perhaps gold hit a bottom on 3 Nov.

 

[Sean K]

Still looking like a potential bottom back there, but talking heads on the financial channels still saying be cautious of another bear rally in general equities. Perhaps they've missed the bottom and feeling jealous. A lot of cash on the sidelines is probably itching to get back in now in FOMO, so could be a good run until the Fed says 'woops' we've got it wrong again.

 

[Sean K]

Nice looking round bottom on the GDX. ? she continues and hits the left hand peak down the track.

 

[rcw1]

Good afternoon Sean K
rcw1 very close to jumping back in ... SP went smooching the $41.85 level for a moment.
Getting the jitters ha ha ha ha

Thoughts ? if I may be so bold as to inquire with you?

Have a safe and happy Christmas and prosperous new year.

Kind regards
rcw1

 

[Sean K]

Good afternoon Sean K
rcw1 very close to jumping back in ... SP went smooching the $41.85 level for a moment.
Getting the jitters ha ha ha ha

Thoughts ? if I may be so bold as to inquire with you?

Have a safe and happy Christmas and prosperous new year.

Kind regards
rcw1

Long term hold for me at the moment and I'm adding on significant corrections. Could easily move back to the $40 support mark short term. I'm a longer term gold bull though, so I might have my gold goggles on. I think short term trading is a little hard with this due to the gaps, as you've previously mentioned. But, most of the top 10 stocks this thing holds have a similar chart profile. AEM, NEM, GOLD, NCM etc, all still showing rounded bottoms.

 

[rcw1]

Long term hold for me at the moment and I'm adding on significant corrections. Could easily move back to the $40 support mark short term. I'm a longer term gold bull though, so I might have my gold goggles on. I think short term trading is a little hard with this due to the gaps. But, most of the top 10 stocks this thing holds have a similar chart profile. AEM, NEM, GOLD, NCM etc, all still showing rounded bottoms.

yep, thanks for that.

Kind regards
rcw1

 

[finicky]

I subscribe to Greg Carnavan's investor advice and while he is very bullish gold stocks for 2023 he expects a pullback first and then he will be advising some ASX goldie buys. He points out that there's already been a 45% rally since September.

 

[Sean K]

I subscribe to Greg Carnavan's investor advice and while he is very bullish gold stocks for 2023 he expects a pullback first and then he will be advising some ASX goldie buys. He points out that there's already been a 45% rally since September.

I agree there should be a correction of some type to keep this run up healthy.

Although, it's at times like these that I wonder, why did I hold all that cash on the breaks up in Sep and Nov? Hindsight is a wonderful thing.

Are we forming a nice big cup?

 

[rcw1]

Good afternoon
Great volume today, well to 1.12pm AES, anyways. Some big sales always helps.
Interesting.

Not holding.
Have a very nice day today.

Kind regards
rcw1

 

[rcw1]

Good evening
GDX SP got down to $41.45 today (20/02/23), the hot air balloon been running out of gas past 9-10 days or so.
rcw1 is watching this one.

rcw1 is a GDX believer. Will go back in when the numbers are good to go.
Good fortune SeanK.

Kind regards
rcw1

Have a very nice day, today.

Kind regards
rcw1

 

[Sean K]

Well, that rounded bottom was looking great until Feb, which I think coincided with general USD strength. Had to correct at some stage, but a little more than I'd have liked.

Found some support across 40 bucks ish. Happy with that, for the moment.

 

[rcw1]

Good morning @Sean K
Hope your still holding ... hasn't been at $49 for long time.
Well done bloke.


Not holding

Kind regards
rcw1

 

[Sean K]

Good morning @Sean K
Hope your still holding ... hasn't been at $49 for long time.
Well done bloke.


Not holding

Kind regards
rcw1

Just buying dips on this. I think the GDX will explode if POG breaks $2070 and continues north. FOMO will kick in. Still could be months away though.

 

[Sean K]

It's been a roller coaster the past two years.

Good bounce off that $40 mark, now crossing $50 in quick time.

While POG is touching ATHs again the producers are still a long way off their highs. I actually thought they led POG to some extent, but obviously not in this case. Must just be the effect on equities in general in the Covid-Recession economic environment.

 

[Sean K]

The GDX is probably the amateurs way of investing in gold stocks when you don't have the time or ability to actually pick individual stocks. Hence I've done it as a hedge against my unprofessionalism. But just looking at the top few charts of what makes up the GDX makes me wonder whether if I'd be better off sticking to the juniors I think have potential for a 3-5 x return and limit downside with some more solid exit rules. Having the ability to watch the screen all day, every day means there's no excuse for managing individual investments closely. With gold potentially breaking out I think juniors are going to move the most.

Except for Franco Nevada, the top 4 of the GDX isn't anywhere near their highs while USD POG is. Yes, market factors, but wayyyy off.

 

[rcw1]

Hello @Sean K
Not sure how many shares you accumulated and what the average price was.... nor what your intentions are with respect to holding period, but as you would know have followed this thread. For mine, GDX is a good hedge. Wish rcw1 had gone back in, did allot of talking about it but didn't go in, having said that accumulated and traded twice for profit back end of last year. Learning the intricacies of how the SP works with this stock is the key; moreover, volume issues/gaps in SP and momentum, makes it difficult for short term trading; not necessarily complex but ... as you have said, "Except for Franco Nevada, the top 4 of the GDX isn't anywhere near their highs while USD POG is. Yes, market factors, but wayyyy off."

Begs the question Sean K, what happens when all the ducks actually line up, boy would luv to be part of that one...

Wish you well with whatever decisions you have made with respect to this stock.

EDIT: spelling error

Kind regards
rcw1