@Sean K thanks for your post comparing these two markets, I wanted to reproduce your charts making them bigger to have a closer look. They do mostly turn together and track in the same direction but if you put the same moving average on both charts you can see that GLD is definitely the stronger market.There's still a slight anomaly between the GDX and Gold with the GDX lagging. I actually thought gold miners led gold, but not in this case. Maybe GDX is telling us the gold has gone too far? Or, GDX should be at $60 ish.
View attachment 167988
Comparison of the two markets since the December 2015 low;
View attachment 170048
Can you do that from 2022? Looks like GLD has done better from around Mid 23.
Absolutely agree, I own poth and the performance or absence of, is stunningWas looking at the performance of GDX vs the price of gold and man it was TERRIBLE.
OCTOBER
GDX: 42 AU$
Gold: 1800 US$
FEBRUARY
GDX: 42 AU$
Gold: 2020 US$
1. explain the downperformance
2. will this trend continue? yes/no and why
Was looking at the performance of GDX vs the price of gold and man it was TERRIBLE.
OCTOBER
GDX: 42 AU$
Gold: 1800 US$
FEBRUARY
GDX: 42 AU$
Gold: 2020 US$
1. explain the downperformance
2. will this trend continue? yes/no and why
An interesting ETF about which I am ignorant. The charts do tell a tale.
The top chart is a 3 year and compares GDX ETF to a/ PMGOLD as a proxy for the POG in $AUD and b/ GOR as a proxy for the average gold mining stock. GDX is down 3% whereas Gold is up and GOR is up though falling since December
View attachment 170939
So buying gold as PMGOLD 3 years ago would have given you a 40% profit today. Equally GOR a 20% profit. Unfortunately GDX would have shown a loss at 0.3%. I'm not up with how much skinny the ETF makers shave off that for the pleasure of having done nothing for 3 years, so the loss may approach 5% I'm guessing.
The next chart is just GDX, again a 3 year but with large support and resistance lines at $35 and $55.
View attachment 170940
I guess one strategy would be to buy GDX at $35 and sell at $55 , if that pattern repeats which would give a profit of 60%. This requires luck and a belief in a higher power.
All in all a sad look at GDX. If I were having a big bet I'd steer clear, or would I?
gg
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