GDN - Golden State Resources

[doctorj]

Given all the excitement here, I had a look at their recent announcements.

I'm curious why 400mcf/d is getting everyone so worked up for a company with a market cap of $40 million. Perhaps I've not read far back enough...

 

[Agentm]

I've also held since the '05, what worries me know is that after all this time it might not reach former highs and is a good time to sell....

Is someone able to buy & sell to themselves without brokerage? ie manipulate the SP by using two separate entities (owned by the same person) and pay very minimal or no brokerage costs. I'm curious as this may allow the millions of share transactions we are seeing.
thanks in advance

in my view there is much to be cautious about if this turnover is all over 40 bopd..

your suspicions on the trades are very very astute.. i dont trade in GDN, i watch the pump and dumps and learn from it and how never to be caught up in it..

if you have held this share for the length of time you say you have,, what reserves are you expecting here on 40 bopd? do you think the sp is reflecting real value or it reflecting something else? i am interested in your opinion..

 

[zt3000]

I've also held since the '05, what worries me know is that after all this time it might not reach former highs and is a good time to sell....

Is someone able to buy & sell to themselves without brokerage? ie manipulate the SP by using two separate entities (owned by the same person) and pay very minimal or no brokerage costs. I'm curious as this may allow the millions of share transactions we are seeing.
thanks in advance

I believe Brokers are able to buy and sell to themselves .. hence they dont pay brokerage to themselves. Hence manipulating the price .. or volume at least. However, I dont believe this is legal.

 

[elcruzy]

zt3000 - yes that is what i've heard from my friend who works in back office for a large financial firm. very small or flat rate brokerage to large clients is not unheard of.

 

[new_trader1984]

Hi, yesterday after the high volume went through before and after the announcement which was nothing to get excited about i looked at the last months trading.

Yesterdays 37 million was only 1 of 4 days in the last 12 months that has been close to the same volume 2 of those days was back in october when over 2 days the large traded volume pushed the price to 1.26.

Since the 31st july up to friday the 24th of August the total volume was about the same volume as yesterdays trading. If you look at the volume as the share price fell considering the prices it wasnt very much volume when there is 180 million shares on issue if everyone was selling out like its been mentioned a lot.

Todays volume is the highest gdn has ever had in one day and still has 3 hours to go, there has to be a reason for it since nothing like the last 2 days has happened on the other previous announcements when a flow rate of 0.2 0.3 and 0.3mmcf were announced.

I would of thought high volume would have happened when it was around 10-12 cents but the days at those prices it was mostly 1-2 million share volume or less on some days which isnt much when the shares were only 10 cents.

Yesterday in the closing auction over 900 000 shares were bought at 22 cents the ones that bought in the auction did well after todays trading since it opened higher from open today.

If we are 2 months away from drilling the next well what has got buyers interested in this stock all of a sudden, since its been similar news for the last couple of months?

Thanks.

 

[sharemadder]

Well someone got to say it - 100,000,000 shares just turned over. This is incredible and absolutely amazing. Party time :alcohol::band LOL

Now we wait who's doing the buying???

 

[hoppielimp]

Has anyone noticed how the intervals are reported ? Its a minor thing, but its been bugging me....

The intervals are demarked by depth, from shallower to deeper, however the middle interval is reported deeper to shallower ie. 9732'-9727'

Does someone check the reports before it goes out or does JH just sign and post it to the asx ?

Sorry just me being picky.

Well hopefully the oil interval is next, since they are working bottom of the well up, and believe oil interval was reported 9411'-9431' .... here's to a higher sp and hopefully the share rally doesn't go

 

[Mr Right]

I believe Brokers are able to buy and sell to themselves .. hence they dont pay brokerage to themselves. Hence manipulating the price .. or volume at least. However, I dont believe this is legal.

I dont know what is going on but would the brokers spent so much time buying in and selling out if there wasnt something behined that id driving it.

I dont know what!!!!!!

 

[DAZT49]

IMO..
This buying is for the main a large group of investors, in at a heavily discounted SP.
..maybe that the U spinoff is their main target.
..maybe they have 'the good oil' (so to speak) on the U and its reserves.
By buying heavily into GDN they get a huge number of U entitlements at .35c
maybe giving them a strong push at a takeover at a much cheaper entry than the float price (say $2).
Then (cringe) the day after entitlement day they dump GDN to pay for the U company

 

[GOSAFAS]

Basically, just on the potential gas reserves the sp has to be worth at least 80c and thats probably cheap.

Other factors are -

a) Expanded gas resource
b) Potential oil
c) Uranium factor

So, for mine on paper this share looks like an absolute steal at today's sp of 33.5c.

Correct me if I'm wrong - I'd be interested to hear other opinions.

 

[toc_bat]

Basically, just on the potential gas reserves the sp has to be worth at least 80c and thats probably cheap.

Other factors are -

a) Expanded gas resource
b) Potential oil
c) Uranium factor

So, for mine on paper this share looks like an absolute steal at today's sp of 33.5c.

Correct me if I'm wrong - I'd be interested to hear other opinions.

GOSAFAS, how did you make that calculation?

My calculation went along the lines of this,

I relied on a few posters estimates that the wells gas income potential is about 5000USD/day, which about $2.25M / pa - AUD,

Given that it cost them around $9M to drill this well, granted the contractor went way over budget due to some mistakes, $2.25M/pa does not seem like much, and a very optimistic P/E of even 20 or say 25 then that would value the co at $50M odd, or about 50c,

bye

PS and i still sold out at 22c !!! damn as i didnt think it would happen so fast !!! ay karamba

 

[bigdog]

ASX ann today

Second ticket this week
29/08/2007 Response to ASX Query
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00753334

ASX details guidelines of making aware of information and providing information that has material effects.

GDN states that it complies with ASX rules!

 

[sharemadder]

Ok, so GDN again say "we know nothing" but given a down day on the ASX GDN is now consolidating nicely around 30c and building yet again for another leg up. How easy is it for GDN themselves to track daily movements of shares on the registry to identify if someone or co is building large stake?

 

[elcruzy]

very easy. every director receives a list of who is buying in and out of their company. note that it does not show the price, only the name/entity and quantity.

 

[Agentm]

Ok, so GDN again say "we know nothing" but given a down day on the ASX GDN is now consolidating nicely around 30c and building yet again for another leg up. How easy is it for GDN themselves to track daily movements of shares on the registry to identify if someone or co is building large stake?

i think your missing the point here,, the ASX simply dont believe GDN, they are investigating the whole thing,, and its very easy for them to find out who bought before the announcement..

this isnt the only time this has happened.. these guys are very uncooperative as you can see by their answers.. lets see where this one goes..

 

[sharemadder]

Frankly for me, all I care for atm is the SP stabilises at around 30c. I have no doubt there is something amiss in the recent extremely high turn over of shares. Who's driving it is what I want to know. Now if it is a large buyer building a stake well that's good, tightens the registery and maybe they are playing for a slice of the assets (U, oil, gas IO or whatever). If it's say CK Locke playing it up like they played it down (well imo of course) then WTF. I bought heaps more between 10 and 15c so 30c is now great for me.

 

[Broadside]

they could certainly do with tightening the registry given the whole registry has more than turned over this week. ASX should look closely at who bought prior to first announcement, but if they were smart they would have disguised their identity. Given ASIC's strike rate for successfully prosecuting insider trading, I very much doubt the insiders would be losing any sleep.

Still, the whole thing smells very bad, all the way up, all the way down, and now this latest episode.

 

[bigdog]

i think your missing the point here,, the ASX simply dont believe GDN, they are investigating the whole thing,, and its very easy for them to find out who bought before the announcement..

this isnt the only time this has happened.. these guys are very uncooperative as you can see by their answers.. lets see where this one goes..

these guys are very uncooperative as you can see by their answers.. lets see where this one goes

these guys are real estate salesmen!!

 

[sharemadder]

Richard is a realestate salesman. JH is a geo. Someone has GDN SP firmly in their grasp between 30 and 31c. Huge volumes last three days. regards ASIC and ASX they are powder puffs. Yes lets see were it goes. GL to LT holders

 

[new_trader1984]

Hi, after the recent trading last few days there has been a large accumulator mentioned. There are 2 possibilities if this is true, eclipse currently earns 16.67% of the total earnings after drilling of 2 wells they get this 16.67% because when the 2nd well is completed gdn wont only have one structure of 2000Ha but they will have over 25000 acres which is more than 12000 HA of land in utah which could hold upto another 3-4 stuctures that could be as good or better than the current structure. The one that gdn is working on at the moment may not sound the best by a lot of people based on results so far, but this was a wildcat well to find gas shows and obtain infomation on the strucutre that was drilled which they have now got. They also know where it is better to drill to reach specific targets such as leadville pinkerton trail barker creek and the Ismay formations.

If eclipse believes the rest of the land in the area is worth more than the current 16.67% holding they might be buying larger amounts in gdn. I know that once a company holds 5% they have to tell the market but is it possible if eclipse is a large company with lots of smaller subsidiary's, such as gdn's us subsidiary is golden eagle exploration, could they have been buying upto 5% using each one to gain a large holding in gdn without needing to let anyone know immediately?

The other one that might be interested in buying more into gdn is delta petroleum. They currently have been drilling in paradox basin with 9 wells planned for 2007 in the area. They have also drilled on a state lease for a discovery well and then are planning to drill on a federal lease 2 miles north of the discovery well on the state lease. delta holds 88000 net acres in the paradox basin and plan to have 2 drilling rigs working on one project. They have 3 seperate projects all being drilled this year in paradox basin. Thats a lot of land to have in the paradox basin and maybe they want to get more land in the area. DHS drilling who did the drilling for gdn are owned by delta petroleum, that would suggest delta could find out all about gdn's well, not sure whos doing the testing but based on drilling the first well maybe they are aware of the potential for the area.

These are just my thoughts and nothing more but while talking about a big accumulator they are the 2 that i would think would have the most interest in gdn at these prices.

People are saying that gdn spent 20 million on the well, if gdn recovers 7 million its really only about 10-12 million US the well cost still a lot but it was going to cost around 5 million to drill the well so only double and lots of companies do go well over budget on planned wells so this isnt rare when drilling for oil and gas.

Also the ones that are saying gdn need to recover this amount before being profitable, all investors and traders would of known there was a chance of success and chance of failure on a wildcat well, so by buying into gdn knowing this all that money could of been spent on an unsuccessful well, so any income that is earned from this well and future wells is revenue since they dont need to make up the amount that the well cost since that was going to be spent whether success happened or not.

Just thought to share my thoughts after the recent trading the last few days.