Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

GDN - Golden State Resources

Hi,

I have read people are saying gdn still has a very high market cap because they don’t have anything of value. At the moment gdn has 25000+ acres of land in utah for oil and gas projects which can possibly contain 4 or more structures similar to the one currently being drilled. The one currently being drilled has been successful since it has got several intervals flowing gas at a steady rate. 2 Intervals had water contact so not possible to be productive from this well but very likely to be productive in the next well when they drill to those intervals especially Leadville further up dip.

The oil interval is going to be interesting to see what results are obtained once tested considering there is a lot of oil being produced in utah and to find 20 feet of oil at around 7000 feet it means shallow drilling for the oil so a lot cheaper to drill and just trucking the oil which only costs involved is the trucks to deliver the oil which shouldn’t be too much.

In the report that was written by an independent geologist which can be found in the notice of shareholder meeting on the 21st December 2005, the geologist says samples of the gothic shale indicates that it can generate up to 5000 barrels of oil per acre or 12400 barrels of oil per Hectare. Im not sure how many feet of oil pay is needed to be able to produce 5000 barrels of oil per acre but thought that this statement was worth sharing. Since if there is a large amount of oil in that 20 foot column and is productive at good flows then even with a small amount of gas flow this well would still be worth the costs involved in drilling this well. It would have been better if it was a lot cheaper but if can get back 7.5 mill US it would mean the well would have only cost around 10-12 million which is only double the initial amount expected which is still a lot but if any oil or gas is productive from a first wild cat well then the company can say that the well was a success. They will also know a lot more when comes to drilling future wells in the area including where best to place horizontal wells too.

To the statement some others have made on other forums about gdn market cap still high, If you look at other companies they are trading a lot higher then gdn’s current share price and they haven’t got any productive flow rates or mining gold or uranium at the moment.

Looking at CIG it has 800 million shares on issue and current share price around 12 cents, it has an interest in pru which is likely to be in production early next year with their gold projects. If CIG had 180-200 million shares on issue the current share price could be 48-50 cents at moment without having drilled any wells. That’s more than twice what gdn is currently without even drilling a well, but when they do drill the chances of success are very high.

ADI currently at 65 cents has just over 100 million shares on issue, only 20% of a big project and primary objective didn’t flow gas, the price is 4 times more than gdn but only has 1/5 of the project that has caused the increase in share price without having tested their secondary targets, it may good value still but this is another company where they aernt producing but still 3 times more in price at moment, but if read into all the work that’s happening can see that it could have a high chance of success.

I don’t mean to sound negative on adi or cig since they both have a lot of potential but they both do show that they don’t need to be producing anything to have a high share price.

Looking at the uranium part of gdn. GDN held the thompson’s project which before spinning off to the new company was going to just sit there since all the money and work has gone into the oil and gas project. By spinning it off into a new company it allows work to start on the project with a team that has been working on uranium projects for a long time and are the only company to be producing uranium in utah currently.

GDN gets 30% ownership of the new company for just giving them the thompsons project. Now if you think about it the ground that the thompsons project covering 6640 acres must be pretty valuable to be all the other partner wants and in return the other company will offer a project that has currently 1.9 million pounds of uranium found already and aiming to be in production by end of year. GDN didn’t have access to a uranium project which would be in production until this spin off happened. The other partner will also be the main ones running the company, they also offer a mining fleet and personnel for the new company to do all the work on the projects. That’s a lot the other partner is offering gdn for the new company just for one project area over 6640 acres, gdn doesn’t have to do any of the work as the other partner is supplying the mining fleet, the management and an already proven amount of uranium with likely short term production for the new company which will be providing the new company cash flow. That would have to suggest that the current 1.9 million pounds can be increased in the area that the project is in and the thompsons project will substantially increase the 1.9 million pounds again when work starts on that project. If from the 1.9 million pounds that already been found with the new company if $40 dollars was the profit amount after all costs were taken out per pound of uranium then that 30% holding gdn has would be around 22.8 million dollars which would cover the full cost of the wildcat well that has been drilled, and maybe a second well if gdn recovers the 7.5 million dollars. So if looking at it that way then gdn’s first well is completely covered by the uranium projects current 1.9 million pounds of uranium with the 30% holding gdn would have then any success on the first well would be pretty much free, since the uranium project covers the costs of the first well.

Reason im thinking along those lines is most other companies increase in price based on drilling results or reserves even if not producing, such as pru has over 3 million ounces of gold and is currently over $1 a share but not producing, pru is a good company in my opinion but just showing that a company doesn’t need to be producing to increase in price based on what the company has found.

So if looking at it that way currently the first well which has successful flow rates even though small is still a success for the company, they currently have 30% of a uranium project currently holding 1.9 million pounds of uranium which may not be much but is a start for a company that hasn’t yet listed. The well is already covered based on return from the uranium project which hasn’t cost them anything but a project on a large block of land that they were not able to do much with while having very little money to invest into the uranium projects.

These are just my thoughts only just thought to share what I was thinking.
 
nt,
great post .
1.9mlb gives around $200mill ..30% holding gives $60mill lees costs etc is going leave enough for another 10 + wells.:D
I still believe that the gas is going to be the winner down the track.
We know they have money for Para 2.:D
If they can confirm 440BCF mid range 3TCF tops as specified in the origional prospectus the SP rebound and bound off the meter.:D
Fraccing must be finished by now,caculations/colating/analysis ..an ann must could be/should be this week, (I reckon its small c commercial)and hopefully giving us a definate date for Para 2.
I saw a post on another site saying that the rig was on its way, bit the poster has yet to tell me where he got that info apart from a John (could be John Hasleby..could be John Travolta)
My broker says that float of the spinoff company could be some time away yet (a couple of months).
xmas is getting closer..I think we will like what Santa has in his big red bag.:D
 
datz

The value of the u to GDN is imo currently 50%, and not 30%, the value of the U.

It will become 30% after the float, at which time the value can be measured in terms of the new co share value.

I dont have a current value to put on the u, but it may be more like $40/lb in ground X 2.5 m lbs x 50%; allowing for a greater resource than original estimate which was done when value of resource was less, making lower grades less economic to mine.

This gives about $50m, but does not detract from the original argument that this can pay for a few new wells, if necessary.

Please feel free to comment.
 
Just don't get it. If future is clear and positive, why the sp keep dropping? I am in at 21c, but right now it dropped to 15c.:confused:
 
bignote,
GDN are 30% stakeholders in the spinoff.
I dont think they would bother to mine the U if it was only $50mill, I reckon $200mill is even too small to be commercial given costs to mine it etc.
However there is no denying it will pay for quite a few gas wells for GDN.
adamwu,
Seems no doubt that sentiment has had a big part in the SP, frustrated punters who had big $$ in there eyes, and thought (along with me) that Para 1 would squirt oil and gas all over Utah.
Management had the same $$ signs, and certainly didnt help matters with vague anns.
Remember, Para 1 was a wildcat well and a test well for future drilling.
Para 2 has been targeted updip and ,if we can believe management, targeted to be commercial.
Fracc results and assesment of Para 1 MUST be due soon!!!
I have my fingers burnt and crossed.
 
GDN makes me crazy:banghead:
0.135 now~sigh
how come there is still no news about new float? Could I please confirm GDN will give 1 U-share for 4 GDN shares, or just the priority to buy 1 for every 4 shares? Thanks!
 
Gives you the entitlement to buy 1 share for every 4 shares. Hard to judge the merits of U float without seeing a prospectus which is, surprise surprise, late. I do not hold.
 
lin,
yes 1 u share for every 4 GDN
eg 100,000 GDN = 25,000 u shares.
SP is a real bummer, some support at 13c!!!
 
broady,
Yes you are right of course, I believe its 35c/u share.
The prospectus thingy isnt late, as they never specified a date..but sheite its taking a bloody long time:mad:
 
thanks mates

I was wrong as I always thought I would at least get some free U shares, which is the reason I still hold GDN

:(:(:(
 
wow - now this is really stuffed up. Management needs to deliver a ann now. Tell us how much gas from ismay :mad:

13.5c low is sick, real sick - mangement need :shoot:
 
I think the prospectus is late or they are waiting for markets to stabilise: 25 July: "UTAH URANIUM PROJECT AND IPO
A timetable for the release of the prospectus (including shareholders’ entitlement record date) is
expected to be finalised this week. The release of the timetable has been awaiting the completion
of legal and technical due diligence that forms part of the IPO prospectus.
No major or unexpected issues have arisen from the due diligence studies so far."

But...in this climate...I don't blame them for waiting, I would do the same. Maybe they can change the float to iron ore or something sexier than Uranium ;)....this float has been mooted for some months and there have been a number of delays. Who would have thought GDN management would overpromise and underdeliver on this? It would want to be a blockbuster prospectus to reward shareholders who stuck with them, good luck.
 
Until such time as they administer our lethal injection I think we just have to look on the positive side.
Para 1 has .8mmcf/d + xmmcf/d from upper levels.
Oil column yet to be assesed (see NT1984 post 11/8/07)
Para 2 to commence Oct..updip...on the honeypot.
$9mill (roughly) in the bank enough for pipeline, Para 2 and maybe 1 more well.
Income from oil column.
Possible $7mill from legal action. (more wells)
U spinoff will give GDN $60mill (roughly)from 30% stake, enough for 10 + wells.
Most of us are now long term holders (+ 12 months) therefore reduction in Capitol Gains Tax lol
 
I can see myself topping up the holdings @ 10c by end of week at this rate. I believe in the "project". This well is not a good beginning but as stated for a wildcat well at least we have gas. Thats a positive :) to remind one self. Next well could prove a lot better. Emailed GDN management again and probably get the same reply again "zilch" :cautious:
 
I can see myself topping up the holdings @ 10c by end of week at this rate. I believe in the "project". This well is not a good beginning but as stated for a wildcat well at least we have gas. Thats a positive :) to remind one self. Next well could prove a lot better. Emailed GDN management again and probably get the same reply again "zilch" :cautious:

Sold out at the 40 cent mark, looks almost good for a punt again soon. Looking at the chart it looks like we might get to the 5 - 10 cent mark. What would you think was a good buy in point, considering we are likely to see single digits soon?
 
I posted that I had read a post on HC that the rig was on its way..
According to the poster it was a joke.........................ha f ha
Sorry about that guys.
 
Datz49 it ok - the SP is what is making me angry. Constantly sold down. We need good ismay results. They must be close to having them. No news will see this at 10c soon and what of their broker support etc. There is no support yet we have a well that is flowing gas. Frustrating :banghead:
 
Hi...

I've been searching the web for latest news on GDN and I found this great thread!

Thank god that I'm not the only one that's completely frustrated by the poor sp at the mo and the constant trend down recently.

I agree with sharemadder, DAZT49 not your fault - you were sharing information under the impression it was legit. The nozzle who posted it as a joke should be flushed! :)

Well 'make good of a bad' I always say - keeping a close eye on the price and will do some cash sales averaging... it can't hurt coz there's $$ to be made.

Cheers
Tropolite
 
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